Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
196 FXUS62 KKEY 250922 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 422 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Warmer than usual temperatures and light to gentle breezes persist today into tomorrow. Dew points will remain in the lower 70s through this period. -A potent cold front is expected to race through the Florida Keys late Monday. Winds will clock northwest to north and freshen considerably. Near gale breezes will be possible. -The cold air mass behind the front along with one, possibly two, reinforcing front(s), have a good chance of keeping temperatures below normal for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 A surface ridge stretching west southwestward across the peninsula is driving light easterly breezes, along with warm and humid conditions across the Keys this morning. While the lower level ridge is aligned across Cuba and driving confluent flow across the far southeastern Gulf, broad ridging through the mid and upper levels and associated stable conditions and dry air aloft has helped to minimize shower activity across the island chain. Over the next couple of days, the surface ridge will retreat eastward into the Atlantic as a prefrontal trough descends into the eastern Gulf. As a result, light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will relax and gradually clock south then southwesterly. This flow will ensure warm and humid conditions through this period. Rain chances will be slim at best. The weather will take a sharp turn towards the cool/cold side early next week. The previously mentioned prefrontal trough will swing across South Florida on Monday, followed by a strong cold front late Monday and Monday night. Expect westerly breezes to strengthen modestly on Monday then surge out of the northwest to north Monday night. Boundary layer moisture will be ample ahead of the front. However, low level confluence will be quite limited and upper level support will remain off to the north. This will limit the front`s shower potential. High pressure expanding southeastward through the southeastern United States, along with day time heating, will help to drive down winds on Tuesday. The incoming cold airmass will push overnight lows into the 50s, recovering only into the 60s during the day. The cold stretch may last well through the week as guidance is becoming increasingly insistent that a series of high cells will pour southwards across the eastern United States. This will drive a couple of reinforcing fronts through the Keys. The first front is expected Wednesday night, followed by the second Saturday night. Under this scenario, breezes will back northerly and freshen modestly with each front and maintain a steady stream of cool air. With that said, there has been some run to run and model to model variance in the medium and long range periods. For now will keep the high and low forecast near the ensemble means, which is 5 to 10 degrees below climatological norms. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 After several days of modest breezes, a prolonged period with large swings in wind speed are incoming. For today, an Atlantic ridge will retreat eastward into the Atlantic while a prefrontal trough drives into the eastern Gulf. As a result, light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will relax and clock southerly tonight. A strong cold front is expected to blast across the area beginning Monday. Expect winds to pick up out of the west on Monday, before surging out of the northwest to north late Monday and Monday night. The peak in breezes is expected to be fairly short lived as high pressure building down into Florida will help moderate breezes on Tuesday. However, another weaker surge is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a reinforcing cold front pushes southwards through the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH today. Individual shallow showers will form around the island terminals, but not at sufficient coverage to include VCSH. An occasional period of MVFR CIGs is possible near decaying showers. Surface winds will start to veer southwesterly after sunset. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest