389
FXUS63 KJKL 270743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
343 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures are expected today, followed by a
  significant warmer conditions Friday through the weekend.

- Multiple rounds of showers, and perhaps thunderstorms, are
  possible this weekend within the warm sector of a strong storm
  system moving towards the greater Ohio River Valley.

- After a brief cooldown Monday night into Tuesday, above to well-
  above-normal temperatures return for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025

Fast northwesterly flow aloft weakens and becomes more zonal tonight
into Friday, with a northwest-southeast oriented warm front moving
east across the area this evening into the overnight tonight. A
disturbance will then move east across the Ohio River Valley during
the day Friday, with eastern Kentucky within the warm sector.

As for the details, warm advection steadily increases today as
southwesterly surface flow develops with the approaching warm front.
Clouds will also increase later in the day as the warm front and a
passing disturbance will provide lift, with some light rain showers
possible though with the low-level dry air in place and the
progressive nature of the shower activity, the vast majority of
locations will remain dry or only see a trace of precipitation.
Temperatures will rise several degrees over Wednesday, with highs in
the lower to mid-60s.

Warm advection continues to increase into Friday, with moisture
increasing as well, especially after the passage of the warm
front this evening into the early overnight. This will present
better opportunities for showers, and increasing instability
associated with a passing disturbance will support rising
precipitation chances toward Friday morning. The most likely
locations for experiencing showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be places along and north of the Mountain
Parkway. PoPs then steadily decrease from the southwest to
northeast as the day progresses Friday. With warm advection and
periods of sunny to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, highs
will jump to well above normal readings in the 70s, with a few
locations possibly touching the 80-degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025

An active weather pattern is expected to end March and begin April
as a large scale trough over the western U.S. ejects disturbances
east across the country.

The long-term period begins Saturday with the region residing
within a warm sector, with well above normal temperatures nearing
80 degrees for highs Saturday under mostly cloudy skies. A slow-
moving disturbance over Texas will begin to weaken and become
absorbed into the larger-scale mid- and upper-level lows over the
Western U.S., which will push a round of showers and storms north
into the Mississippi River Valley and lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Saturday into Saturday night. Models are in decent
agreement that this activity will move across eastern Kentucky
late Saturday night into Sunday under deep southerly flow. This is
followed by a lull late Sunday afternoon into the evening as a
strong cold front and well-defined upper-level disturbance and
associated strong jet stream begin to move toward the area from
the west Sunday night, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Kentucky sometime Sunday night. The SPC currently
continues to hold eastern Kentucky within a Slight Risk during
this time, though there are questions as to the the degree of
instability remaining over eastern Kentucky during this time.

The cold front crosses the area sometime Monday, bringing a cooler
and drier air mass into the region for Monday night into Tuesday.
However, another (potentially strong) system looks to move east into
the center of the country Tuesday into Tuesday night. That system
will bring a quick return to strong warm advection to the region
for the mid-week period. PoPs and cloud cover increase again
Tuesday night through the remainder of the long-term on Wednesday
as the area returns to the warm sector ahead of this approaching
system. Though details are lacking, it seems fairly high
confidence that after a brief cool-down Monday night into Tuesday,
with possible frost in some areas Tuesday morning, temperatures
quickly return to above to well-above-normal readings for the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts are forecast through
the period. PROB30 groups have been introduced for elevated light
rain showers after 00z Friday as a disturbance approaches and a
weak warm front moves east across the area Thursday evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC