060
FXUS62 KJAX 212329
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
729 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track for a cool night. Calm winds and clear
skies due to high pressure building in overhead will lead to good
radiational cooling. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 30s
inland to the low-mid 40s along the Atlantic coast and St. Johns
river basin. Some patchy frost may develop for inland areas early
Saturday morning.


&&

.NEAR TERM...

As of 2 pm, latest surface analysis indicates weakening gradients
and thus decreasing winds as surface ridging noses in from the
west. Temperatures continue to rise and should peak in the low/mid
60s this afternoon. Tonight will be a chilly one for late March
given the excellent radiational cooling set up. Temperatures are
expected to fall to the lower 40s and upper 30s inland, which may
lead patchy frost from the Suwannee Valley into interior areas of
southeast GA. This chill also includes the beach communities as
prevailing land breeze develops. Despite the late-season patchy
frost, the coverage is likely to be too marginal to support a
Frost Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night)

High pressure will be overhead Saturday morning. The high will
center more to the east Saturday afternoon through Saturday night,
as a weak cold front passes to the north northeast. Saturday will
be a dry and mostly sunny day with highs around seasonal normals.
For Saturday night, moisture will increase from the south,
leading to a gradual increase in cloud cover from south to north.
Lows Saturday night will trend below normal.

The high pressure ridge will be centered to the east northeast
Sunday into Sunday night, with ridge extending across forecast
area. The position of the high will yield a flow from that is
generally from the south. It will remain dry Sunday into Sunday
night, but clouds will increase further through the night Sunday
night as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through next Friday)

A cold front will move south southeast into forecast area Monday.
There is an upper wave that passes through along with the surface
feature, helping to destabilize the airmass. The front will slow
down and weaken as it passes through with activity lingering
through Monday night, and possibly into Tuesday. Another cold
front will move southeast across area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

High pressure ridging will prevail over area Wednesday night
through Friday.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR with clear skies prevail through the period. Winds calm this
evening for all inland sites. Cannot rule out very shallow fog
development toward day break but this will be patchy and likely
not affect runways. Light west-southwest winds develop Saturday
morning, around 15z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will meander into the waters from the west tonight
and linger a ridge axis across the region through the weekend.
Fair maritime conditions are expected through early next week. A
weak cold front will stall across the waters Monday through
Wednesday with another frontal passage expected Wednesday night.
High pressure will build in from the north and then to the
northeast through the latter end of next week leading to a
prevailing onshore flow.

Rip Currents: Elevated surf continues a Moderate rip currents
continue through Saturday. With a lower risk by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Patchy frost inland Tonight. High pressure ridging will be the
main weather feature over the weekend. MinRH levels in the 20s
will be common on Saturday. Areas of high dispersions north of I10
Saturday. MinRH values in the 20s inland Sunday. Areas of high
dispersions SE GA Sunday. A cold front will approach from the
northwest Sunday night, then move through Monday into Monday night
with a chance for thunderstorms. Another front is expected to
follow this one for Tuesday into Tuesday night, with high pressure
prevailing later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  38  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  45  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  66  38  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  42  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  38  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  38  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$