Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
407 FXUS64 KJAN 211943 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 243 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Tonight through next Thursday...Quiet weather will persist across the forecast area from this evening, through Saturday, and during at least the first half of Sunday. Zonal flow aloft and southerly surface winds through the weekend will yield warming and moistening conditions. Look for highs to climb into the mid and upper 70s Saturday, and then into the upper 70s and lower 80s Sunday afternoon. Lows will likewise rebound from this morning`s cold readings, with low and middle 40s expected tonight, and in the 50s to around 60 both Saturday and Sunday night. Weather across the region will become more active later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A closed low and its attendant trough moving from the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region, will cause a cold front to develop and sag south into and through the CWA late Sunday into Monday. While a capping inversion will be in place across the area ahead of this front, a wave ahead of it should be enough to weaken the cap. Thus, allowing storms to develop along, to just ahead of the boundary. Sufficient instability and just enough adequate deep-layer wind shear over the area, in addition to steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5- 8 C/km) with vertical totals in the 27-30 C range, looks to yield some severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. This is especially the case across the northwest half of the CWA, where a "Slight Risk" of severe storms currently exists Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. In this area, hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary concerns. A "Marginal Risk" of isolated severe storms exists southeast of this area, down to essentially a Meridian to Brookhaven line. In this area, hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts will be possible. This potential severe weather remains a fews days out. Therefore, please continue to monitor the latest forecast and outlook as both threat levels and timing will be fine- tuned. Rain currently looks to linger across mainly southeast and south central Mississippi through the morning hours Monday morning, but it`ll steadily exit the area through early afternoon. Quiet weather will then exist across the entire forecast area through mid-week. Some drier air will advect into the region in the wake of Monday`s front. However, conditions overall won`t change much with highs forecast in the low and middle 70s Monday. Then climbing into the mid 70s to around 80 Tuesday afternoon. A weak disturbance, embedded in west northwest flow aloft, passing near the area on Wednesday looks to bring some high clouds to the region, which will result in highs from the lower 70s to around 80s, but they`ll return to the mid 70s to around 80 on Thursday. Lows will follow the same pattern, with mid 40s to lower 50s expected Monday night, rebounding into the upper 40s and middle 50s Tuesday night, cooling into the mid 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night, then lastly only falling into the low and middle 50s Thursday night. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 VFR conditions and generally southerly winds should prevail at the TAF sites through the period. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 45 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 20 Meridian 43 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 47 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 30 Hattiesburg 44 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 48 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 30 Greenville 46 73 57 78 / 0 0 0 50 Greenwood 46 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/NF