569
FXUS64 KJAN 060240 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
940 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

There was still an isolated thunderstorm over northeast Madison
and northwest Leake counties. This thunderstorm will dissipate
over the next hour and no additional redevelopment is anticipated
tonight. The temperatures were rain-cooled over east and
southeast but forecast morning lows still look on track. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Today through Tomorrow...

Increasing heat stress will continue to be the primary focus this
holiday weekend through next week across our entire forecast area
with heat indices in the triple digits. If you have any outdoor
plans, be sure to stay cool and hydrated, and use sunscreen.

A upward few adjustments were made to the forecast regarding the
convective coverage for east MS later today, as guidance suggest
higher rain chances later today. Otherwise, the overall forecast for
the near term period remains the same. Near term guidance is still
showing a 1020mb sfc high over the Ohio valley Region with a 592DM
500mb upper-level ridge building eastward. This will allow for quiet
conditions to persist across the western half of our forecast area
this afternoon. As this ridge continues to build eastward, a build
up of southerly flow from the Gulf will continue to advect boundary
layer moisture across portions of east and southeast MS which could
allow for a few isolated/scattered showers and t-storms to occur.
Afternoon CAM guidance shows scattered convection across east MS
with areas west of I-55 remaining fairly dry. Went ahead and
increased afternoon PoPs to 15% for areas along and east of I-55 to
account for this with slightly higher PoPs across the Pine Belt.

In addition to the low rain chances today, afternoon highs are
expected to reach the mid 90s areawide. Given the highs in the mid
90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, heat index readings will
struggle to reach 105 degrees. Regardless, hot and humid conditions
will continue across our forecast area today. Most areas will
struggle to reach 105 heat index mark, however, a few areas could
reach and potentially exceed this criteria. For this reason, the
"Limited" threat for increasing stress will continue to be
advertised for our entire forecast area today and Sunday.

A few lingering showers will be possible across portions of the Pine
Belt later this evening with quiet conditions elsewhere. HREF
guidance is beginning to show low probabilities (around 5-10%) of
patchy fog development across east MS looking ahead into the
overnight period. Confidence is too low to introduce any fog
graphics at this time. Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 70s
areawide. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with slightly
higher rain chances (around 25-35%) along and south of I-20.
Afternoon highs will peak in the mid to upper 90s. /CR/

Sunday Night through late next weekend (Saturday)...

Heat stress conditions will worsen looking ahead into early next
week as global guidance continues to show upper-level ridge building
east into the Mid MS Valley. At the moment, no changes have been
made to the heat graphic for next week and a "Elevated" risk for
dangerous heat will continue to be advertised for areas along and
west of I-55. Further threat area adjustments as well as heat
headlines and advisories will likely be needed as we get closer to
the early to middle of next week.

Rain chances will start to increase in coverage across the area
heading into Monday with higher convection chances Wednesday to
Friday. This should help keep afternoon highs near seasonable
levels. Dewpoints will still remain high in the mid to upper 70s
with the hottest timeframe being mid morning to mid afternoon each
day before isolated showers/storms begin. Global guidance does show
a trough axis over the Mid Tennessee Valley dropping southward
across northern MS heading into the late week. This combined with
daily diurnal convection, favorable lapse rates and westerly flow
could allow for some strong to isolated severe storms to occur.
Forecast confidence is too low at this time regarding the timing and
intensity of this system given the inconsistency between model
guidance. More information will become available as we get closer to
the late week. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Isolated TSRA have developed over east MS and wl affect PIB and
HBG through 01Z. The TSRA are expected to dissipate before coming
in vcty of JAN and HKS. Away from any TSRA VFR conditions and a
light wind wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  96  73  94 /  10  20  10  40
Meridian      72  95  71  95 /  10  20  10  30
Vicksburg     74  96  74  94 /   0  10  10  40
Hattiesburg   72  96  73  96 /  10  30  10  50
Natchez       73  95  71  92 /   0  30  10  50
Greenville    74  96  74  94 /   0  10  10  30
Greenwood     74  96  74  95 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/CR/22