846
FXUS63 KIND 170802
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible this morning, locally dense.

- Scattered showers and drizzle possible tonight.

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week as temperatures
  continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next
  week

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph Wednesday with record temperatures possible

- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Cyclogenesis is occurring in the lee of the Rockies, roughly over
eastern Montana, as a deep trough moves ashore on the west coast.
Guidance shows the resulting low pressure becoming quite large, with
a surface pressure field extending over the northern and central
Plains and into the Midwest. Additionally, the low is modeled to be
strong with minimum pressure around 985mb or so. A such, a strong
mass response is shown with warm moist air racing northward through
the day today.

Satellite imagery shows extensive mid/high-level clouds advancing
from the west, associated with the potent jet extending
northeastward from the Four Corners region. Further south, a narrow
area of stratus is streaming northward over Arkansas and
Mississippi. These clouds are associated with rich moisture from the
Gulf. High-resolution guidance brings this moisture plume northward
into Indiana this evening. Model soundings hint at possible drizzle
within the stratus deck as it lifts north.

High temperatures today will once again be warm, with highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Some high-resolution guidance such as the HRRR
brings the aforementioned stratus in faster, keeping temperatures
down during the afternoon hours. In this scenario, highs would only
be in the low 50s under thick stratus and possible drizzle. We will
lean more towards the higher end of guidance, since stratus likely
arrives later and the overall consensus has been too low over the
past few days. We did go a bit lower across our southwest where
stratus may arrive by mid afternoon.

By tonight, forcing associated with the low developing to our west
begins overspreading the region. This should allow for scattered
showers to develop, especially after about midnight. Shower activity
should be light since the bulk of the forcing is passing to our
north. As such the chance of showers also increases with northward
extent.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

An active pattern is expected early in the extended along with above
normal temperatures. A warm front associated with a low pressure
system lifting through the region may support isolated light showers
during the morning hours. Any showers should then quickly diminish
by midday once forcing shifts further east. A strengthening MSLP
gradient combined with diurnal mixing into a strong LLJ will likely
promote strong southwesterly winds through the day. Wind gusts up to
35 mph are possible. This will help promote potentially record
temperatures into the afternoon hours. The current forecasted high
for Wednesday in Indianapolis is 68F which would break the daily
record high of 66F back in 2017.

The primary concern in the long term is on Thursday and Thursday
night with the potential for severe weather. A negatively tilted
shortwave trough aloft will aid in strong surface cyclogenesis near
the Central Plains. The low pressure system is then expected to lift
northeastward towards the region supporting widespread precipitation
and scattered thunderstorms, but uncertainty remains regarding the
overall severe threat. This is primarily due to model differences in
the surface low track and evolution of the system. GEFS and EPS
ensemble members continue to show this spread in the track of the
surface low, which will ultimately dictate the northern extent of
the warm sector and the available surface-based instability. The EPS
members currently favor a more northwest track putting central
Indiana deeper into the warm sector with slightly higher instability.

From a kinematic standpoint, Thursday`s environment is quite
favorable for severe weather with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 60-80
knots combined with 0-1 km SRH exceeding 200-250 m2/s2. The primary
limiting factor remains the thermodynamic profile, but even 500 J/KG
of CAPE in this highly sheared environment can be conducive for
severe weather. Guidance depicts an EML potentially limiting
convective coverage through at least the first half of the day.
Increasing forcing combined with low level theta-e advection should
eventually erode the EML during the afternoon allowing for more
widespread convection. Discrete cells are possible if the cap
weakens by the afternoon hours, potentially supporting a damaging
wind and isolated tornado threat. If the aforementioned EML remains
intact through peak heating, convection may be delayed until the
arrival of the primary cold front Thursday evening.

Highs are expected to be in the 60s once again Thursday thanks to
additional warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned system.
Look for temperatures to then trend cooler into the weekend as
ensemble solutions generally show decreasing heights aloft with
upper troughing persisting across the eastern CONUS. Surface high
pressure briefly building in Friday through early Saturday will
likely provide mostly quiet weather.

Guidance then depicts an additional shortwave passing near the
region over the weekend returning low precipitation chances to the
forecast. However, exact details remain uncertain due to diverging
model solutions. Some wintry precipitation could mix in as
temperatures steadily fall.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1229 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Impacts:

- Chance of MVFR fog near daybreak Tuesday
- MVFR stratus with scattered rain showers arrives after 03z

Discussion:

Winds will be light again tonight but additional mid and high cloud
is likely to keep widespread fog from forming. That said, the ground
remains cool and moist and patchy MVFR fog is certainly possible.
Will carry a TEMPO group at the outlying sites for 3SM BR BCFG.

Any fog will mix out in typical diurnal fashion Tuesday morning,
with winds strengthening to around 10KT or so out of the south, and
broken midlevel cloud expected.

Mid/high-level cloud cover continues to increase through the day,
becoming BKN to OVC this afternoon. Guidance shows a plume of low-
level moisture racing northward through the day today, arriving
around 03z. MVFR stratus is anticipated with the moisture. Forcing
from a system to our west should provide enough lift for scattered
showers or drizzle after 03z as well.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Eckhoff