556
FXUS63 KIND 212323
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
723 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will continue through tonight

- Small threat of showers tonight

- More widespread rain for Sunday and Sunday night

- Temperatures hovering around normal for much of the upcoming week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Rest of This Afternoon...

High clouds will continue to increase across central Indiana. Gusty
winds are expected to continue as mixing taps in to strengthening
low level winds. Gusts between 35 and 40 mph are possible, mainly
across the western portion of the area.

Fire threat may be slightly elevated with the gusty winds, but fuels
and humidity will remain above critical levels.

Tonight...

The evening will remain breezy but dry as a cold front approaches
from the west. Some moisture will be brought up ahead of the front,
but overall the moisture isn`t great. An upper trough will accompany
the surface cold front, but the better forcing with this trough will
be north of central Indiana.

Thus, given some lift and just marginal moisture, will keep PoPs low
tonight. Will keep the far south dry with the weakest forcing there.

Some gusty winds may accompany the showers that do develop as they
tap into the stronger low level winds, and some briefly higher gusts
will likely occur with the frontal passage. Would expect any gusts
to remain less than 40 mph.

Temperatures will fall back into the middle 30s to lower 40s behind
the front by sunrise Saturday. Any rain will have ended before
temperatures would get cold enough for snow in the far northwest.

Saturday...

Clouds will linger in the morning, especially across the northeast
half of the area. As high pressure builds in during the day, expect
sunshine to return and temperatures to rebound into the middle 40s
to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Saturday night through Sunday night...

Rain chances quickly return early in the period as a surface low and
parent trough push across the region. Increasing large scale ascent
combined with warm-moist advection aided by a strong LLJ favors
widespread precipitation, especially during the day Sunday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected across the southern half of
central Indiana where most guidance shows deeper moisture and
stronger forcing overlapping.

Precipitation begins to taper off from west to east towards
Sunday evening once drier air filters in behind a departing cold
front. Diurnal mixing into the aforementioned LLJ will be mostly
limited due to extensive cloud cover, but breezy conditions are
still likely as the MSLP gradient tightens.

Monday through Friday...

Long range guidance shows upper troughing across the eastern CONUS
through midweek with multiple shortwaves tracking near the region.
Mean troughing aloft will help to keep temperatures near seasonal.
WHile quiet weather is expected Monday, deep mixing and a strong LLJ
overhead will likely result in windy conditions. Periodic low
chances for light precipitation can be expected during the week.

The best chance for rain at this time is on Tuesday when a weak
disturbance moves in. Marginal overall moisture and weak moisture
should result in light QPF amounts. Upper level ridging and
surface high pressure then look to build in briefly later in the
week providing mostly quiet weather Wednesday and Thursday. There
is still a low chance for light rain (10-20%) though as a few
models show weak impulses possibly moving through.

Rain chances begin to increase slightly towards late week with
another system approaching. Uncertainty remains high on exact
details regarding the late week system to a large spread in model
solutions. Temperatures will likely warm up late next week due to
southerly flow returning. Expect highs to return into the 60s by
late next week and some locations could even reach the 70F mark
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Impacts:

- Winds gusting up to 20-30KT through 12Z Saturday morning
- Winds veering from SSW to WNW during 03Z-12Z tonight
- Brief non-convective LLWS within 04-07Z tonight at KHUF/KBMG
- MVFR ceilings pre-dawn Saturday at KIND/KLAF

Discussion:

Mainly VFR to prevail through Saturday evening over central Indiana.
Rather small short wave aloft and corresponding cold front to cross
central Indiana late tonight from west to east.  Robust to gusty
winds often gusting to 20-30KT will be maintained while veering
behind fropa...from SSW to WNW after 03Z tonight.  Gusts may be
briefly higher following the front.  Any scattered VCSH are not
expected to reduce CIG/VIS below VFR.

MVFR ceilings will occur briefly over KIND/KLAF through pre-dawn
hours amid passing subsidence behind the front.  Less intense, yet
breezy WNW/NW surface flow Saturday should gust up to 20KT... before
diminishing at sundown.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...AGM