967
FXUS63 KILX 121950
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stretch of warm summerlike weather that started today is
  expected to last through Saturday. Expect daily highs in the
  upper 70s and lower 80s, with mid 80s likely Tuesday and
  Friday. Gusty south to southwest winds, occasionally reaching
  30-45 mph into mid evening, and gusts of 20-35 mph during the
  work week, will accompany this warm period. Blowing dust may
  reduce visibility wherever early field work is taking place
  across the region until the fields are dampened by showers.

- This week will be riddled with thunderstorm potential. Tuesday
  and Wednesday currently exhibit the highest probability
  (15-30%) of severe weather from I-55 nw, along with another
  possible threat of strong to severe storms over central/se IL
  Friday night into Saturday as the main cold front comes
  through.

- There is also a potential for substantial accumulative
  rainfall throughout the week, with our multi-model ensemble
  predicting a high (60-80%) chance of exceeding 1 inch north of
  I-70 through Saturday and medium (40-60%) chance of exceeding
  2 inches north of I-72.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The 19Z/2 pm surface map has a 994 mb low pressure in north
central MN with a warm front over central parts of WI and lower
MI. A 1033 mb high pressure was off the southern New England
Coast. Tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure
systems was giving pretty strong SSW to SW wind over IL with
gusts 30-45 mph with the 40-45 mph wind gusts northwest of I-70
to near the IL river. Had a recent report of blowing dust in a
farm field 4 miles nw of Nokomis near the Christian/Montgomery
county line. A short wave near the KS/MO border had showers as
far east as sw IL, just west/sw of CWA while heavier showers and
isolated thunderstorms were in far nw IL into northeast Iowa and
sw WI and tracking ne ahead of the short wave.

Short wave to eject ne into central/northern IL by 03Z/10 pm and
into central/southern Lake MI by 06Z/1 am tonight. The latest
CAMs have showers spreading quickly ne over central and northern
IL during mid/late afternoon while se IL is more scattered this
evening after supper. Could be an isolated thunderstorm with
these showers but SPC does no have a severe risk of IL through
Monday morning. Rainfall amounts generally fairly light between
a tenth and quarter inch north of I-70 with highest amounts nw
of the IL river where locally higher amounts around half inch
possible. SSW to SW winds to stay breezy through Monday with
gusts 35-45 mph north of I-70 through early evening and still
gusting 25-35 mph after dark this evening. Blowing dust still a
concern in recently tilled fields before showers dampen the
ground. Mild lows tonight in the low to mid 60s, mildest in
southeast IL. Breezy sw winds on Monday with gusts 25-30 mph
gives warm highs in the lower 80s and more humid with dewpoints
in the 60s.

We have slight chance of convection in southeast IL Mon morning,
then a low chances of convection during mid to late Mon
afternoon over CWA into Mon evening. Stronger forcing/low level
jet occurs north of central IL during Mon night with marginal to
slight risk of severe storms (slight risk far northern row of
IL counties near the WI border). We have 20-30% chance of
convection north of a Quincy to Bloomington line overnight Mon
night with the 30% pops from Galesburg to Lacon north. Then
20-30% pops north of I-70 Tue morning (30% pops north of
Lincoln).

SPC day3 outlook recent update continues slight risk of severe
storms from Danville and Champaign to Springfield north/nw for
late Tue afternoon/evening. They now introduced a level 1 of
very large hail and stronger wind gusts nw of I-55 over IL river
valley, so this area will need to be watched closely for more
significant severe storms. Warm highs Tue in the low to mid 80s
before the storms and moist dewpoints in the 60s with breezy sw
winds gusting 25-35 mph.

SPC Day 4 outlook has 15% or greater risk of severe storms from
McLean, Logan and Sangamon counties west for Wed
afternoon/evening. We may see a brief break from severe wx risk
Thu/Thu night before another chance of strong to possible severe
storms Fri night and Sat as main cold front comes through. Heavy
rains will also be a threat with thunderstorms this week. Much
cooler air ushers in during 2nd half of weekend.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Apr
19-25th has a 45-55% chance of above normal temperatures and
40-45% chance of above normal precipitation over central and
southeast IL. So the mild and unsettled weather pattern looks to
continue the next two weeks across IL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Broken to overcast mid level clouds from 6-10k ft blanketed
central IL early this afternoon. A short wave over eastern
Kansas, to lift northeast into central/northern IL by mid
evening, and spread showers and isolated thunderstorms ne thru
central IL during mid/late afternoon. The showers to diminish
from the west during late evening from 03-05Z. Continued to
mention PROB30 group for showers for a 4-6 hour period. Mvfr
ceilings and vsbys will be possible with localized heavier rain
showers this evening. There is then a medium (50-70%) chance
that broken MVFR ceilings trail the main push of showers later
tonight into Monday morning, especially at PIA and BMI.
Generally dry conditions are expected over central IL during
overnight into midday Monday. SSW to SW winds at 18-25 kts and
gusts 28-35 kts this afternoon, to diminish a bit during this
evening, but still gusting 25-30 kts. Expect SW winds 10-15 kts
with gusts 20-25 kts overnight into midday Monday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07