123
FXUS61 KILN 270523
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
123 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will bring a chance for showers into early evening.
Warmer temperatures along with showers and a chance of thunderstorms
will arrive Thursday into Friday as a warm front pivots north
through the area. A wet weather pattern will continue this weekend
with a good threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
night as cold front approaches and moves through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update this evening generally switched any rain chances in the next
few hours to sprinkles. Cannot find an upstream site where anything
other than a lowering of cloud bases as the result of modestly higher
reflectivity values from these showers. Temps were blended from a few
different models for the overnight but remain relatively in line with
earlier forecast for a negligible change.

Amplified mid level flow characterized by a long wave ridge over the
west and a trof over the eastern CONUS, placing the Ohio Valley in a
northwest flow pattern. A sheared out vort moves across the area
this afternoon into early evening with forecast soundings showing
steepening of low-level lapse rates. This was leading to the
development of scattered showers across the area. Have continued to
increase pops over the NBM values with the best threat bisecting
ILN/s area from nw to southeast thru ILN. Pcpn chances end from
northwest to southeast early this evening. Clouds to decrease and
scatter out this evening with an increase in mid and high level
clouds late.

Chilly overnight temperatures drop to lows from near 30 northeast to
the mid 30s southwest/

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The region remains in broad mid to upper level northwesterly flow.
A surface wave is forecast to develop over the central Plains with
isentropic lift developing over the Lower Ohio Valley Thursday. Weak
mid level support moving within the northwest flow will work to enhance
the broad lift late Thursday morning into the afternoon leading to
increasing chances for rain mainly during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain Thursday afternoon is across eastern Indiana, extreme
southwest Ohio, and northern Kentucky. This rain shower activity
shifts southward toward evening. High temperatures Thursday generally
range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Nose of low level 40kt jet along with the approach of a warm front
will lead to an enhanced chance for showers overnight Thursday.
Elevated instability develops late - mainly across the west - so have
included a mention of thunder. Milder temperatures Thursday night
with lows from 45 to 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley on Friday. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms are possible especially through 3pm as
warm, humid air arrives from the south. Forecast highs rise into the
70s for most locations by the afternoon. Mild conditions continue
into the overnight with forecast lows barely dipping into the 50s.
Dry conditions are likely overnight since no forcing is expected in
the region.

On Saturday, the Ohio Valley will be firmly embedded in a high theta
e airmass for late March with persistent southerly flow. Showers and
thunderstorms will once again be possible if an embedded shortwave
trough that is currently appearing on some global guidance
progresses through during the afternoon/evening hours. Any
shower/storms likely taper off late overnight as the shortwave
trough moves east.

Sunday into Sunday evening may once again feature active weather
across the Ohio Valley with some severe storms being possible. To
start off Sunday morning, some lingering precipitation from
Saturday`s shortwave trough should be moving off to the east before
a brief period of drier weather is possible. By Sunday afternoon and
evening, a low pressure system is forecast to be moving east of the
Mississippi River Valley into the Lower Great Lakes along with upper
level support. Showers and storms are likely to occur southeast of
the low ahead of an approaching front in this Sunday afternoon to
Sunday evening timeframe. There are some indications that storms
could have the potential to be severe since strong shear will be
moving in from the northwest potentially overlapping with low to
moderate MLCAPE in the warm sector later Sunday. Numerous
uncertainties around the instability profiles and timing of storms
remain.

Cooler temperatures arrive to start the work wee

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few sprinkles will linger about KCMH/KLCK early in the TAF period,
but conditions should trend dry area-wide by/past 09z before
additional ISO/SCT SHRA move back in past 18z. Do think the bulk of
the daytime activity stays just to the SW of even KCVG/KLUK, but
have added a PROB30 for these sites during the mid/late afternoon to
account for a few stray SHRA near the terminals.

FEW/SCT mid clouds will clear out a bit toward/beyond 09z, with
mainly clear skies favored in the several hour period around
daybreak. Some additional VFR clouds will move back in from the NW by
the afternoon, particularly for wrn sites of KDAY/KCVG/KLUK, but
mostly clear skies are favored further to the E through much of the
daytime. Clouds/SHRA will be on the increase area-wide toward/beyond
06z Friday.

Light/VRB winds through sunrise will slowly go more out of the WSW
at 10-12kts by the afternoon before going more southerly at 5-10kts
once again toward the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday night through
early Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Franks/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC