112
FXUS62 KILM 302041
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
441 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring elevated rain chances and
slightly cooler temperatures later Tuesday through Wednesday.
The weakening front will then slowly move through Friday with a
return of more typical summertime weather likely through early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows Bermuda high pressure extending
westward towards the Carolinas. Diurnal cumulus have dotted the sky
this afternoon, while a few isolated showers have traversed parts of
the area, with storm motions moving in a near perfect straight line
from south to north. Isolated showers and storms will continue
periodically through this evening, before dying off after sunset.
Lows tonight in the mid-to-upper 70s. Elevated boundary layer winds
should keep fog concerns out of the way.

Mid-level trough pattern associated with a cold front deepens
Tuesday, bringing a little more forcing to the area. Meanwhile, an
upper low offshore of Florida spins closer to the GA/FL coast,
bringing an even stronger dose of vorticity aloft. The seabreeze and
the Piedmont trough will the centerpieces in convective initiation,
but with more energy aloft, storms are expected to be more organized
and scattered than today. Some storms may bring in some higher wind
gusts, but no severe weather is expected. Outside of convective
winds, gradient winds tighten, and gusts up to 25 mph are possible.
Highs Tuesday in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast. Some
of the inland locales may achieve a heat index near 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Near to above normal low temps and near to below normal high temps
*Near to above normal rain chances
*Low risk for flash flooding Wednesday/Wednesday night
*No significant severe storm risk

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: An inland trough will give way to an approaching cold front
and more troughing aloft and deeper moisture which will lead to
increased rain chances, especially Wed. The lack of significant deep
layer shear and low instability will keep the risk for severe storms
very low, however the deep moisture and pretty weak deep layer winds
should lead to a slightly enhanced risk for heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding. High temps Wed will be kept near to below
normal while overnight low temps should be near to above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages/Highlights:
*Above normal rain chances through Thu; generally near normal
 chances Thu night through Mon
*Very low severe storm/flash flood risk through the period
*Near to above normal temps
*Very low risk of a likely weak tropical cyclone developing
 well to our south/southeast late this week into early next
 week; moderate to high confidence in no significant direct
 impacts to SE NC & NE SC

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A stalling/weakening cold front should slowly move offshore
Friday followed by high pressure from the north. The main question
mark is whether a tropical or subtropical cyclone develops along
the front well south/southeast of the area. However, even if
one does develop, the risk for any significant impacts to SE NC
and NE SC remains very low, especially as the system should be
far enough away and not that strong. Otherwise, generally
anticipate a fairly summertime pattern beyond Thu into early
next week with mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms,
especially near the coast, and potentially also late night/early
morning showers/storms offshore/near the coast. No significant
severe/flash flood risk is anticipated. Heat indices should stay
below Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Have indicated prob30 groups for convective potential  at all
terminals through mid evening. SSE-S winds at coastal terminals
around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this aftn into the
evening. Inland terminals, winds S around 10 kt with gusts
around 15 kts. Modest LLJ with SW winds 20-30 kt will persist
across the area tonight, keeping winds active across all
terminals and keeping fog potential at a minimum if any.

Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Tue
from scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The potential
further increases mid to late week as a cold front drops to the
area and convection increases both coverage and intensity.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Gradient winds on the rise this period, with S to
SSW winds at 15-18 kts increasing to 20-22 kts. Frequent gusts over
25 kts will trigger a Small Craft Advisory to go in effect at 11 AM
EDT Tuesday, continuing until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. Seas at 2-3 ft
increase to 4-5 ft.

Tuesday night through Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. An
approaching cold front will weaken as it slowly moves through late
week. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Tue
night, mainly due to wind gusts around 25 kt. Otherwise, no headlines
are anticipated as seas mostly stay 5 ft or less.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents
forecasted for the beaches of Brunswick County, as well as
beaches north of Myrtle Beach in Horry County, for Tuesday and
Wednesday as southerly 6 sec swell builds to 4-5 feet ahead of
an approaching cold front. Breaking wave heights around 5 feet
may be possible on Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...