171
FXUS62 KILM 212342
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
742 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy conditions Saturday will create hazardous fire
weather conditions. A cold front moving through Saturday night
will bring cooler weather for Sunday, and a second cold front
arriving late Monday could be accompanied by a few showers. Yet
another cold front may reach the Carolinas by the middle of
next week with cooler temperatures by Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued brief SCA for Sat morning through Sat eve. Light W-SW
winds will diminish through the evening but should pick up
before daybreak. Otherwise clear and cool night with some patchy
frost possible in wind sheltered spots. Aviation discussion
updated below for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep westerly flow will maintain dry conditions
through the near term forecast period...through Saturday. Really no
threat for any cloud cover with no high level moisture in sight and
thermal/profiles too dry for even convective clouds. The concern for
the forecast centers around fire weather concerns Saturday...see the
discussion below. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees either
side of 40 with highs Saturday much warmer than today in the lower
to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After a dry and breezy Saturday, a moisture-starved cold front
should move southeastward across the area Saturday night --
likely before midnight from Florence to Whiteville and
Wilmington and points north, then shortly after midnight south
toward the Grand Strand. Lighter north winds behind the boundary
will bring cooler air in and lows are expected to range from
the lower to mid 40s.

A transitory bubble of high pressure moving eastward across the
Mid Atlantic states will move off the Virginia coast by late
Sunday morning. This will veer our synoptic flow easterly, then
southeasterly during the afternoon. Even with clear skies onshore
flow should lead Sunday`s highs running significantly cooler
near the coast (mid to upper 60s) than inland where Florence and
Kingstree should still reach the mid 70s.

With the high fully off the coast Sunday night and low pressure
beginning to move eastward across the Great Lakes our winds
will turn southerly, but without any immediate return of deep
moisture expected. Sunday night`s lows should reach the lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave rotating around a large upper low across the Great
Lakes will swing across the Carolinas Monday night. A second
stronger shortwave from Canada will fall into the longwave
trough Wednesday night or Thursday. Among 12z guidance the GFS
is nearly 12 hours faster with this second shortwave than the
ECMWF -- this has implications for high and low temperatures and
timing of an associated cold front Wednesday into Thursday.

Monday is our only significant chance of rain during the
extended forecast and even it`s not that great. A cold front
advancing southeastward across the Appalachians Monday morning
should have significant westerly flow aloft across the
Carolinas. There`s a narrow window from noon through late
afternoon where a ribbon of 700 mb moisture originating from the
western Gulf coast could advect across the area. Models are not
showing any improvement in the quality of moisture or strength
of isentropic vertical motion versus yesterday, so forecast PoPs
remain in the "chance" range (30-40 percent) with QPF < 0.05
inches. The front should push offshore Monday night.

The aforementioned strong shortwave should push another cold
front southward across the Carolinas, but the timing of this
feature remains uncertain. The 12z GFS and Canadian are
considerably faster than the ECMWF and this leads to low
confidence with temperature and wind direction forecasts for
Wednesday. By Thursday there`s higher confidence the front will
be located to our south and highs should remain in the 60s
across the area with cool northerly winds expected.

Dry weather should persist Thursday night into Friday as high
pressure moves offshore and return southerly wind begins.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions in the forecast through the period with clear
skies. W-SW winds will diminish but will pick up again near
daybreak with gusty winds developing into Sat aftn with gusts up
to 20 to 25 kts.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through Sunday. Another cold front will bring the next chance
for restrictions and rain chances on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory mainly for gusts to
25-30 kt on Sat. Seas now below six feet across the board and
the headline was allowed to expire on time at noon. For the
remainder of this afternoon and tonight winds will continue to
diminish to a range of 10-15 knots possibly lower for a couple
of hours. A southwest flow picks up in earnest Saturday with
winds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts. There should be several
hours of SCA winds. Significant seas have come in at 2-4 feet
this evening and tonight with 3-5 feet Saturday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Breezy southwest winds will
continue into Saturday night before a cold front arrives, likely
around to a couple hours after midnight. Lighter north winds
are expected behind the front, veering easterly during the day
Sunday as a transient area of high pressure moves off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Return flow from the south will establish itself
Sunday night as low pressure moves eastward across the Great
Lakes. These south to southwest winds could increase to near 20
knots Monday as the next cold front moves eastward, reaching
the coast sometime Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are possible if winds become a little stronger than are currently
forecast.

Another cold front could approach from the north Wednesday, but
models show a wide variety in timing for this system which
degrades forecast confidence significantly. The current forecast
of southwest to west winds 10-15 knots should be considered a
placeholder since model solutions suggest southwest winds will
become northerly at some point the middle of next week as the
front slides south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry southwest flow for Saturday brings in low dewpoints and
higher wind gusts therefore a Red Flag Warning has been issued.
While parameters...both winds and RH`s could be marginal at
times/places the antecedent dry conditions make this more than a
reasonable call.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
SC...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ017-
     023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/SHK
FIRE WEATHER...