141
FXUS63 KICT 211941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms in southeast Kansas late
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Near- to above-average temperatures anticipated to last
  through next week.

- Very high grassfire danger Saturday and Sunday.

- Additional chances for showers and thunder late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates strong upper flow over
the southeast CONUS as a weak shortwave trough makes its way through
the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front moved through the
forecast area today and resulted in breezy northwest winds. These
winds are expected to weaken after sunset and turn back around to
the south by Saturday morning. As a result, slightly warmer
afternoon highs (low 70s) are expected to start the weekend.

Another cold front is progged to roll through the Central Plains
late Saturday night into Sunday morning as an upper shortwave enters
the region. Current guidance continues to highlight areas along/east
of the Flint Hills as having the best chances for precipitation.
With MUCAPE values around 800-1200 J/kg alongside 50-60 kts of deep-
layer shear, a few strong to severe storms are possible, with the
primary threats being strong winds and hail.

Heading into Monday, an upper ridge begins building from the west
and gradually progresses over the Central Plains throughout the
week. At the surface, this will bring high temperatures into the 70s
through Wednesday, with possible highs rising into the 80s for
Thursday and Friday. Going into Friday, model consensus is that the
next upper level trough will move into the area. Coupled with
increasing low-level moisture and associated instability, this
feature will bring the next possibility of showers/storms to Kansas.
The GFS and ECMWF vary a bit on timing and evolution of this system,
keeping PoPs under 30-40% at this time. Stay tuned as we
continue to refine the details of this next potential system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Northwesterly winds are expected to continue through
the afternoon as a cold front pushes its way through the area.
Though gusty this afternoon (up to 30 kts), these should die down
after sunset and become light and variable overnight before becoming
southerly by mid-morning on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Very high to low-end extreme grassland fire danger is expected
through sundown this evening across central, south central, and
southeast Kansas thanks to low humidity, gusty winds, and above-
average temperatures.

Very high grassland fire danger is forecast for Saturday and Sunday
afternoon across central, south central, and southeast Kansas. The
strongest winds are expected in central Kansas, where gusts up
to 30 kts are possible during the day. Current thinking remains
that fire danger should stay below extreme/critical levels.
Stay tuned to later forecast cycles as new information becomes
available.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JWK/GC
FIRE WEATHER...JWK