026
FXUS64 KHGX 270446
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday morning)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Forecast notes & trends:
- Overall forecast set-up and reasoning remains about the same as
  described in the past few days worth of discussions so will try
  not to regurgitate much.
- Highest model rainfall accumulations between now and Friday
  night have generally trended a bit to the south...with
  corresponding totals lower inland.
- That said, global guidance still likes coastal locations
  generally south of Columbus-Freeport, and more specifically the
  Matagorda Bay area to potentially see some significant totals in
  the 3-6" range...and some localized/isolated totals approaching
  9". Ongoing Flood Watch configuration will be untouched.
- Higher resolution models are now getting into the timeframe and
  are a mixed bag, but in general initially appear lower. Possibly
  due to some convection offshore disrupting inflow at times. But
  we`re in the early stages and most don`t capture the whole
  event.

With daytime heating and increasing Gulf moisture, we`ve seen some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms initiate southwest
of the metro area. Look for increasing precip coverage across
western parts of the the region this evening and overnight as a
lead, elongated band of vorticity tracks into the area from the
wsw. Areas near the Matagorda Bay area may see 2-3", isolated
4-5" between now and sunrise, though I`m not expecting this
precip to pose substantial widespread issues considering the
dryness of the ground in that particular area...but we`ll keep an
eye on rain rates that could cause localized street flooding.

Tonight`s precipitation to our west should gradually overspread
the remainder of the region on Thursday...but looks like it`ll be
in the remnant/decaying stages.

Concern will be highest Thursday night and Friday as the primary
upper trough axis approaches and we possibly see another burst of
convection develop and track across portions of the area from the
west. Synoptically speaking...its intensity appears capable of
being stronger than tonight`s. Areas along/south of I-10 again
look to be the favored areas. But mesoscale factors always seem
to come into play in these patterns so will need to keep an eye on
boundary/focusing mechanisms that could point otherwise. In
regards to severe wx: the column looks to be fairly saturated
which is a limiting factor, though some of the strongest storms
might mix some of the 25-45kt winds aloft to the surface.

This system should push off to the east Friday night and rainfall
should begin to follow it, though there could be some scattered
trailers linger across southern and offshore areas Saturday
morning. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Rain should be mostly off to our east by Saturday afternoon and a
dry/warm remainder of the weekend is anticipated. A weak cold
front is expected to move into northern parts of the area Sunday
evening and off the coast sometime during the day Monday. Limited
moisture availability and weak dynamics should yield to just some
isolated activity ahead of this boundary. Though RH`s may be a
touch lower for 12-18 hours in its wake, don`t expect much of
significance with this front. Onshore flow quickly resumes
Tuesday. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Band of light rain showers continues to push into areas south and
west of the Houston metro area, so the prevailing lines for
SGR/LBX/GLS include VCSH/SHRA. Otherwise, the other main changes
for this TAF package are keeping ceilings predominantly VFR but be
aware that intermittent MVFR ceilings will be possible throughout
the night. Shower coverage will gradually expand throughout the
night and into Thursday as rainfall becomes widespread. Winds will
be easterly to east-southeasterly generally around 10-15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the afternoon hours. Going into the
afternoon and evening hours is when the forecast becomes a bit
tricky as all high-res model guidance indicates the development of
convection generally after 00Z near the coast. However, confidence
in the placement and exact timing of this convection is low due to
the spread in model solutions, but I have placed a best guess for
LBX. Some high-res guidance shows a band of strong storms moving
west to east across southern areas late Thursday night and into
Friday morning which could carry some strong winds along with it.
Additionally, expecting MVFR to IFR ceilings to gradually build in
from west to east going into Thursday night.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Look for increasing onshore winds as the next weather system moves
into the region from the west. With a long fetch of moderate
winds, seas will build tonight into Friday...likely reaching Small
Craft Advisory criteria later on Thursday. As this system moves
in, mariners should expect increasing shower and thunderstorm
coverage...first near the Matagorda waters this evening and
overnight...followed by weaker activity overspreading the
remainder of the upper Texas coast Thursday. We`ll be on the
lookout for potentially stronger storms Thursday night & Friday.
Some of the higher resolution models suggest the potential for
30-50kt gusts in the strongest activity (moreso in the offshore
waters between Freeport-Matagorda). This storm system will pass
to the east Friday night followed by improving conditions over the
weekend. The next front, albeit fairly weak, is forecast to move
into the waters sometime Monday.  47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Watersheds south of I-10 and west of Highway 288 should anticipate
some rises with some moderate to heavy rains in the area with this
storm system. Sam Bernard, Tres Palacios and other smaller nearby
watersheds appear to be particularly prone. It`s still too early
for specifics, but some ensemble guidance suggests the potential
for rises to near or above flood stage around there.  47

&&

.OTHER...
The Galveston NOAA Weather Radio, KHB-40 at 162.55 MHz, will be
down until further notice. There was a fire at the facility that
housed the transmitter. The building and equipment appear to be a
total loss. We currently do not have a timeline for replacement,
but would anticipate it will be down for at least a month - and
probably several months.

In the meantime, please have multiple ways to obtain weather
forecasts and warnings such as phone apps, NWS and other reliable
websites, local media, etc. We will pass along updates as we know
them.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  71  62  73 /  30  70  90  80
Houston (IAH)  65  75  66  74 /  40  60  80  90
Galveston (GLS)  66  73  67  73 /  40  50  70  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ226-235>237-335>337-
     436-437.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47