057
FXUS64 KHGX 232320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant winter storm will impact the area this weekend.
  Freezing rain occasionally mixed with sleet will result in
  accumulations leading to dangerous to impossible travel
  conditions and weather-related power outages. Hazardous marine
  conditions will also occur.

- The most significant impacts will be in the Piney Woods and
  Brazos Valley, but significant impacts are possible all the way
  down to the coast. Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings,
  and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.

- Travel impacts will last until at least Monday as moisture
  refreezes on roadways, and likely Tuesday especially in the
  Piney Woods and Brazos valley.

- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard
  freezes are expected Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.
  Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley will stay below
  freezing for multiple days.

- Dangerously cold wind chills are expected, with values ranging
  from as low as 10 degrees at the coast and as low as -5 degrees
  in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
  to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
  prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

We are quickly reaching the phase where plans to prepare for the
winter storm and extreme cold should be rushed to completion,
especially the areas in the northern Piney Woods and Brazos
Valley which will be impacted first.

The Arctic front is beginning to move into North Texas, while an
east-west marine boundary is located down near Matagorda Bay. The
center of a very strong 1051mb Arctic high has entered the
Northern Plains, while a trough of low pressure is located along
the Rio Grande. This is resulting in generally easterly winds
across the area. This onshore flow is aiding in persistent low
clouds and some patchy fog across the area, keeping temperatures
down. A large batch of rain is located across North and Central
Texas. At upper levels an upper low remains off the coast of Baja
California while another shortwave is diving southeastward across
the Great Basin. Increasing and moist southwesterly flow aloft is
located downstream of the upper low with embedded shortwaves.

Rain chances will increase from west to east tonight into tomorrow
morning. Models are converging on a subtle shortwave approaching
the area by tomorrow morning along with a modest LLJ. As this
occurs, some CAM guidance shows a cluster of storms or a small MCS
that gets going near the Big Bend tonight, reaching our southwest
counties with a risk for strong storms with gusty winds, small
hail, and heavy downpours tomorrow morning. Surface-based
instability appears limited to areas in the vicinity of Matagorda
Bay. In this area there is a low but nonzero risk for an isolated
severe storm with damaging winds or quarter size hail. Given the
shear, there is also a very low but nonzero risk for a brief
tornado or waterspout immediately adjacent to Matagorda Bay.
Outflow behind this system will then quickly push any surface-
based instability offshore for the duration of the event.

With a +10 to +12C warm nose aloft, snow is not expected outside
of some rogue flurries on the back side, or some odd convective
processes that will be mentioned below. The main driver of
precipitation type will continue to be the temperatures right at
the surface, and a degree or two either way can make a big
difference. Models seem to generally be converging towards better
agreement, with warmer models trending cooler and colder models
trending a bit warmer. Overall trend has been cooler than
previously forecast. The WRF-ARW, NSSL-WRF and the GFS/Canadian
models are still colder than currently forecast. These do
represent a reasonable worst case scenario that we cannot
discount/still need to prepare for, but do not appear especially
likely at this time given known surface cold biases in the model
physics.

With the first wave of precipitation tomorrow morning,
temperatures will be above freezing and supportive of only rain
for much of Southeast Texas. The exception will be areas along our
northern border, especially the Houston County vicinity in the
Piney Woods. Temperatures very close to or below freezing will
result in an initial bout of rain/freezing rain/possibly sleet
with this morning wave of precipitation up in this area.
Temperatures remain at or below freezing across Houston County
through the day, and very close to freezing in other portions of
the northern Piney Woods and northern Brazos Valley. These areas
could potentially see temperatures drop below freezing during the
afternoon. Some subsidence and drying aloft looks to occur behind
the morning wave of precipitation, so precipitation will probably
become less widespread by afternoon. However, there will still be
abundant low-level moisture to promote at least scattered shower
activity and some drizzle. Want to emphasize that precipitation
won`t last the entire time, and that for the far northern areas
that see freezing rain/sleet in the morning, just because wintry
precipitation has stopped falling does not mean that the event is
over with much more still on the way. It`s also worth noting that
lighter precipitation rates as may occur during this time are
often more efficient at producing ice accretion since the water
doesn`t just wash away as easily.

The freezing line will really start to make its advance southward
Saturday night. As this occurs, the main shortwave trough will
approach with increasing forcing and moisture resulting in
precipitation becoming more widespread and intense. Very strong
lift from the shortwave moves through the area early Sunday
morning. At the same time, CAM guidance does indicate some
convective elements moving through. Forecast sounding do show that
a parcel lifted from around 850mb would have some MUCAPE to work
with for some embedded thunderstorms, including in areas that
receive wintry precipitation. This convection will cause some
variability in precipitation types and accumulations across the
area, as freezing rain could change over to sleet, graupel, or
even briefly snow in heavier convection. This will result in very
dangerous travel conditions for Sunday morning. There has also
been a trend towards a bit slower exit of precipitation Sunday
morning.

Highest probabilities for ice accumulations reaching or exceeding
0.25" are in the Piney Woods, with locally higher amounts to 0.5".
These amounts if realized would result in significant impacts to
travel and result in downed trees and powerlines. Portions of the
Piney Woods have been upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning due to
these forecasted ice amounts and the large number of trees in the
area combined with forecasted winds. For the rest of the Piney
Woods, Brazos Valley, the I-10 corridor, and southwest portions of
the area, ice amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch will
also have significant impacts to travel (worst on elevated surface
and highway overpasses) as well as the potential for weather
related power outages. These areas have been upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning, and will monitor these areas for potential
inclusion in the Ice Storm Warning, especially the Brazos Valley.

The highest uncertainty remains for counties adjacent to the
coast, and whether temperatures drop below freezing before
precipitation exits. With a bit colder trend in the models, it is
prudent to issue a Winter Weather Advisory as even small amounts
of ice accumulation would have significant impacts especially
along elevated surfaces and highway overpasses. If the colder
models verify, these areas may need to be upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning. Even for areas that do not drop below freezing
before precipitation exits, remaining moisture on roadways may
refreeze on Sunday morning. Bottom line is, avoid travel if
possible in northern portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley
starting during the day on Saturday, and across the entire
forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. While precipitation exits
the area late Sunday morning, mostly cloudy skies are expected to
persist on Sunday, so we won`t get much help from the sun to melt
any ice. Temperatures will also struggle to reach freezing along
I-10, and remain below freezing Sunday in the Piney Woods and
Brazos Valley. As temperatures plummet Sunday night, any moisture
on roadways will refreeze, so significant travel impacts will
continue into Monday (and more likely into at least Tuesday
especially in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley where temperatures
remain below freezing for multiple days).

We are running out of ways to stress how cold the conditions will
be Sunday through the first half of the week. Temperatures and
wind chills keep trending colder with each model run. Lows in the
teens will be widespread Sunday night and Monday night, with some
single digits looking increasingly likely up in the Piney Woods as
conditions remain icy, with an increasing risk for pipes bursting.
Breezy conditions Sunday night result in wind chills in the
single digits above zero across much of the area, even dropping
below zero in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. Wind chills along
the coast will only be slightly less cold, around 10 degrees. The
Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning
for Saturday night and Sunday night, and another Extreme Cold
Watch has been issued for Monday night.

Below normal temperatures continue through the week. There will be
a low chance for rain near the coast Wednesday.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions persist this evening and overnight as a strong
Arctic cold front approaches the area. Light showers and drizzle
should develop out ahead of the front with a band of heavier
showers and thunderstorms expected as the front moves through
Saturday morning. Could see a few stronger storms too. Only some
modest improvement in CIGs will follow during the daytime. Light
showers persist across the area in the wake of the front. As
frigid, sub-freezing air rushes in behind the front, freezing
rain and sleet will be possible. Some ice accumulations could
occur during the daytime, primarily in areas north of IAH.
However, the main timeframe to watch will be Saturday night into
Sunday afternoon, as that is when the apex of the frozen
precipitation should fall. KUTS is anticipated to see the brunt
of the ice accumulations, but all TAF sites will be at risk of
getting some icing.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Multiple rounds of precipitation, strong winds, elevated seas and a
prolonged period of very cold weather are expected in the coming
days. In the near term, another round of sea fog will be possible
tonight; however, any fog formation may be inhibited due to elevated
winds. Easterly winds will begin to increase late tonight into early
Saturday morning, possibly reaching Advisory levels across the bays
and nearshore waters. In the meantime, Caution Flag conditions are
expected through Saturday morning. The well-advertised Arctic front
pushes offshore late Saturday morning or early afternoon, bringing
strong northerly winds in its wake through the rest of the weekend.
North winds around 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts, as well as
building seas from 8 to 11 feet can be expected. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be issued Saturday into late Sunday. There is
the potential for gale-force winds at times, particularly on Sunday.
Will continue to monitor trends as Gale Watch will be possible
during this time frame. Winds should gradually weaken by midday
Monday.

In terms of precipitation, a few showers and storms are expected
tonight, becoming more scattered to widespread by Saturday along the
cold front. Off and on precipitation continues Saturday evening into
Sunday, with a low to medium probability (20 to 40%)of rain changing
to freezing rain in and around the bays. Very cold conditions are
also anticipated Saturday into at least mid-week. Low temperatures
in the upper teens to low 20s are possible Sunday night into Monday.

With the arrival of strong northerly winds, there will also be the
potential for abnormally low water levels in the bays, especially
during low tide cycles Sunday night into Monday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  36  39  23  28 /  90  90 100  40
Houston (IAH)  48  51  30  34 /  60  90 100  60
Galveston (GLS)  57  59  36  40 /  50 100 100  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ163-164-176>179.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
     335>338-436>439.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
     313-335>338-436>439.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ195>199.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ200-210>213-226-227-235-300-313.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST
     Sunday for TXZ214-236>238-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution Saturday morning for GMZ330-
     335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM