408
FXUS61 KGYX 220209
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1009 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure in the Gulf of Maine exits through the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. High pressure briefly builds in Saturday
before a cold front crosses Saturday night. A colder air mass
arrives Sunday into Sunday night setting the stage for low
pressure to bring accumulating snow impacting the Monday morning
commute. Low pressure exits Monday night with temperatures
trending below normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...Little changes to the going forecast as it
remains on track. Winds will continue to gradually diminish.

620 PM Update...Skies will continue to clear out in Maine from
west to east this evenings as most of NH remains clear. Winds
will gradually diminish too. No changes at this time as the
forecast elements remain on track.

Previously...

Storm continues pulling away from the forecast area...with some
lingering rain and mixed snow across parts of the Kennebec River
Valley and Midcoast. Winds will remain gusty into the evening
hours...gradually diminishing overnight. For much of the
overnight the breeze should keep the boundary layer mixing going
and I have blended in raw 2 m temp guidance to keep MOS from
dominating with radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The next S/WV trof will be fast approaching Sat...with winds
becoming southwest across the forecast area. This will allow
temps to climb into the 50s for many areas ahead of the
approaching cold front. This front will cross in the evening and
overnight. Froude numbers are forecast to climb above 1 and
remain there much of Sat night. So in addition to upslope rain
and snow showers...I have added flurries and sprinkles downwind
of the higher terrain. I have also included some raw 2 m temp
guidance overnight as the boundary layer will stay mostly mixed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10 PM Long term Update...New model data is in reasonable
agreement with the previous forecast. While there is still
uncertainty in snow amounts for Monday, there remains a good
chance that it will be slippery in many areas.

Previously...

Overview: A cold front will be pushing offshore Sunday morning
with gusty NW winds ushering in a cooler air mass. High pressure
crests over the area Sunday night setting up cold conditions ahead
of an area of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes
region. This low pressure system will cross the area Monday
bringing a period of accumulating snow and slick travel to the
region with snow changing to rain across southern areas Monday
afternoon. The 500 mb pattern will amplify some in the wake of
Monday`s system with troughing lingering over the Northeast into
the second half of next week. This will favor temperatures
trending below normal and snow showers in the mountains.

Impacts: Temperatures in the teens and 20s Sunday night will prime
surfaces for accumulating snow Monday morning. Snow will overspread
the region during the Monday morning commute, likely bringing slick
travel to much of the region. Snow will likely mix with and
change to rain south of the mountains before the system exits
Monday evening.

Details: High pressure will build in from the west Sunday with a
colder and drier airmass arriving on gusty NW winds. Peak wind gusts
will be around 30 mph with higher gusts in the mountains. Highs will
range from the 20s north to low 40s south with mostly sunny skies.
High pressure will crest over the area Sunday night setting up
favorable conditions for radiational cooling. This will allow
for lows into the single digits across the north to around 20
degrees across the south.

The 12Z model suite is in good agreement that low pressure
approaching from the Great Lakes will lead to snow overspreading
the region Monday morning. Models suggest a secondary low will
form near southern New England with solutions diverging on how
well organized this secondary low becomes. This results in
differences in QPF and snow amounts south of the mountains,
although even the more robust solutions bring a moderate snow
event. Have mainly stuck with the NBM which seems to have a good
handle on temperatures rising through Monday morning into the
afternoon allowing snow to mix with and change to rain before
precipitation ends Monday afternoon and evening. Current
forecast calls for QPF around 0.5" with 3-5" of snow where
precipitation stays all snow in the mountains, and 1-3" south
of the mountains.

Troughing will linger over the Northeast through the middle of
next week. Various model solutions suggest additional waves of
low pressure could develop near New England while there lacks a
coherent signal for a well organized system.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of MVFR CIGs continue in the mtns and across
west central ME as storm departs. Conditions will become VFR for
all terminals overnight with surface gusts diminishing this
evening. A secondary cold front crosses the region late Sat.
MVFR conditions in the mtns are likely...with some scattered
SHRA/SHSN sneaking over the mtns at times. Surface gusts in
excess of 25 kt are likely again overnight.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Sunday with NW winds gusting to 25 kts.
Clouds thicken and lower early Monday morning with SN
overspreading the region. This will likely bring a period of
IFR/LIFR Monday morning with SN changing to RA south of the
mountains Monday afternoon. Some improvement is possible Monday
night into Tuesday, although clouds and scattered -SHSNRA may
bring restrictions at times into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northwest wind gusts continue thru tonight. A
period of gale force gusts remains likely on the outer
waters....with SCA conditions elsewhere into Sat morning. Winds
will become gusty again after a secondary cold front crosses the
waters later Sat. Will have to watch for another period of near
gale force gusts Sat night outside of the bays.

Long Term...NW winds likely bring SCA conditions Sunday into
Sunday night. Winds shift out of the SE Monday as low pressure
crosses New England with continued SCA conditions.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster/Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Schroeter
AVIATION...
MARINE...