438
FXUS62 KGSP 161800
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 18z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warm, dry, and unperturbed weather will continue through
Saturday. Fire weather will remain the biggest concern during
this period, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect for western
North Carolina and northeast Georgia.
2. Behind a cold front, significantly cooler temperatures are
expected early next week. Some frost is possible over the mountains
Sunday and Monday night, so precautions might be needed to protect
sensitive plants. The air mass will also be dry, bringing a quick
return to low RH and enhanced fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Warm, dry, and unperturbed weather will continue
through Saturday.  Fire weather will remain the biggest concern
during this period, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect for
western North Carolina and northeast Georgia.

All quiet across the western Carolinas today, with some very
isolated cu developing over the Balsams and northeast Georgia, and
mostly clear skies elsewhere.  An elongated trough axis extending
from the Ozark Plateau all the way into Michigan will provide the
impetus for any active weather we receive over the next day and a
half.

In all likelihood, that won`t be much.  A fairly dry air mass
is in place currently, with 20+ degree dewpoint depressions
observed at many ob sites before we have even reached peak mixing.
Today`s forecast profiles across most of the area look quite dry,
with enough turbulent mixing at the top of the PBL to support mixing
both lower dewpoints and higher wind gusts down to the surface.
Consequently, much of the forecast area will see near-critical to
critical RH this afternoon, paired with gusts up of 20 to 25 mph.
With afternoon high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s
across most of the area, it`ll be another afternoon of hot and
dry weather.  In coordination with neighboring forecast offices
and local land managers, a Fire Danger Statement will remain
in effect through 8 PM this evening for all of western North
Carolina and northeast Georgia.  For the South Carolina Upstate,
SCFC indicated fuels are sufficiently moist so as to preclude the
need for a Fire Danger Statement.  It seems likely that additional
Fire Danger Statements will eventually be necessary for Friday
and Saturday...which should both be similarly hot, dry, and breezy.

This evening, a loosely-organized band of showers associated with
large-scale ascent ahead of the trough axis will push across the
Tennessee Valley and make a run at the North Carolina mountains.
Sadly for those who were hoping for a little drought relief,
the morning HREF and REFS membership are in good agreement that
this activity should fizzle out once it arrives in Appalachia.
A couple showers over the mountains are within reason - maybe even a
rumble of thunder - but generally think this should be low-impact.
With even the high-end guidance barely eking out more than a few
hundredths of an inch of QPF...it looks like this will do little
to put a dent in ongoing drought conditions.


Key message 2: Behind a cold front, significantly cooler temperatures
are expected early next week. Some frost is possible over the
mountains Sunday and Monday night, so precautions might be needed to
protect sensitive plants. The air mass will also be dry, bringing
a quick return to low RH and enhanced fire danger.

Unfortunately, not much has changed from earlier thinking with
regard to the passage of a cold front expected over the mountains
late Saturday night and then east of the mountains Sunday
morning. Guidance will show a robust band of showers and storms
approaching from the west on Saturday afternoon, but we strongly
suspect that it will reach the mountains Saturday evening and not
get much farther than that, dashing our hopes for some relief from
the ongoing drought. The models just don`t show that much moisture
return from the Gulf ahead of the approaching front. Areas along
the TN border will be the lucky ones and should get enough rain to
notice, but the front orientation and time of day are unfavorable
east of the mtns. The new model blend QPF is most disappointing,
with zero rain over the I-85 corridor and south/east of there. The
drought will only get worse.

What the front will do is bring in a much cooler air mass that
will drop temperatures back down to at or slightly below normal
for mid-April, so it will almost feel like a change of seasons
in reverse. That raises the possibility of some frost/freeze
issues over the mountains for Sunday night and Monday night. The
post-frontal period Sunday night could have some below freezing
temps, but only at the very highest of elevations (above 6k
feet). More likely will be low temps down into the middle 30s, even
in the valleys, but there could be enough residual NW flow to keep
the frost from forming. That won`t be the case on Monday night, as
the pressure gradient collapses and we have clear sky. Frost appears
most likely to be widespread across the mountains and foothills by
daybreak on Tuesday. Further developments in the forecast trend will
determine whether or not people will have to take action to protect
sensitive plants. The air mass should modify by Tuesday night,
negating the frost threat. Temps will warm for the rest of the week.

Fire weather will probably also be a concern across the region
early in the week, as afternoon relative humidity is likely to
drop down below 25 percent again every day Monday through Thursday,
though wind does not appear to be concerning at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR continues through the 18z TAF period.
SW winds to continue the rest of the afternoon at a steady
10-15kts with gusts up to 25kts.  Gusts should subside this
evening, but winds will remain SW @ 3-5kts for most of the night.
A PROB30 was introduced at KAVL late this evening, to highlight
the potential for some isolated showers to affect the airfield
along an advancing weak cold front.  As the front crosses the area
tonight, most sites will eventually see winds toggle to the NNW.
This won`t last long however...with daytime mixing likely to turn
winds back around to the SW Friday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR prevails over the weekend.  Another weak cold front
may bring rain chances again Saturday night into Sunday, mainly
along the NC mountains.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      87 2006     42 1905     62 1945     26 1943
   KCLT      89 2006     49 1890     64 1998     29 2008
                1896                    1991        1962
                                        1945
   KGSP      88 1888     54 1903     64 1945     24 1907



RECORDS FOR 04-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1896     45 1890     63 1927     26 1904
   KCLT      94 1896     47 1890     66 1896     30 2018
                                                    1949
   KGSP      92 2006     51 1904     63 1927     25 1905



RECORDS FOR 04-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1896     44 1921     60 1927     28 1905
                                        1891
   KCLT      93 1896     45 1983     66 1896     32 2001
   KGSP      89 2002     51 1983     66 1927     28 1905
                1967

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

MPR/PM