279
FXUS63 KGRR 270700
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
300 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderating Trend Through Sunday

- Several Chances For Rain And Storms Friday - Sunday

- Rain Changing To Snow Before Ending Sunday Night - Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

- Moderating Trend Through Sunday

A moderating trend of temps will occur beginning today as we
transition to a south to sw flow warm air advection regime. High
temps today will reach the low to mid 50s and high temps will
reach the 60s across our southern fcst area Friday through Sunday.
However it will be considerably cooler across our far northern
fcst area Friday through much of the weekend in closer proximity
to a quasi stationary frontal boundary across that area.

- Several Chances For Rain And Storms Friday - Sunday

The south to southwest flow will gradually advect more moisture
into our area. Isolated light rain showers will develop later
today but most of the day will be dry.

The first better chance for rain and some convection will come
Friday as elevated instability ramps up to the north of the warm
front with h8 li/s falling to -1 to -2 across much of our area.
Forcing on the nose of a 35 to 40 kt llj will also aid in
convective development. Severe wx is not expected but stronger
elevated storms may contain small hail.

Rain and perhaps a few storms will focus mainly near to north of
the quasi stationary frontal boundary across our northern fcst
area Saturday. However a few waa showers are possible across the
rest of our area too although much of the day should be dry. This
is also a very tricky fcst in terms of frontal position as I would
not be surprised if the front sags a little further south
Saturday given the high pressure ridge further north of the Lake
Superior region and much colder denser air in place across
northern MI. In this scenario it would be possible that some mixed
pcpn could impact our far northern fcst area Saturday into Sunday.

A fairly strong low pressure system will then move ene into our
area late Sunday and bring rain and potential for convection.
The convective potential remains largely contingent on how much
instability will develop this far north. A few stronger storms are
possible across our southern to se fcst area which has potential
for relatively strongest instability to develop. However
considerable uncertainty still exists in terms of timing and exact
track of this system.

- Rain Changing To Snow Before Ending Sunday Night - Monday

A light wintery mix of pcpnn will transition to light snow before
ending Monday morning on the back side of this system. It will
turn much colder early next week with high temps Monday only in
the 30s and then upper 30s to lower 40s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions continuing through 06Z Friday. Clouds will
increase and lower today with a few light showers possible, but
cigs should remain above 4000 ft. Winds will increase out of the
west-southwest by Noon to 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts
possible, then subside below 10 kts again this evening.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laurens
AVIATION...Meade