399
FXUS63 KGLD 211955
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit breezy today with northwest winds of 15-30 mph and gusts
  up to 40 mph on the backside of a low pressure system. A Red
  Flag Warning remains in effect for southwest Nebraska.

- 10-20% chance of dry thunderstorms north of Interstate 70
  Saturday afternoon and evening which may lead to fire starts.
  Sudden, erratic wind gusts may also accompany this threat as
  well.

- Near critical to critical fire weather is again possible along
  and east of Highway 83 Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to return next
  workweek, with record highs possible temperatures Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Mainly clear skies are currently ongoing but have noticed an uptick
in diurnal cumulus across eastern portions of the area and northward
into Nebraska as a mid level trough swings across the region. The
Red Flag Warning that was issued this morning remains. As mentioned
in the update discussion this morning that data continues to show
dew points falling into the low teens across SW Nebraska this along
with a climatological favored downslope winds does support the
potential for warmer temperatures as well leading to a further
dropping of RH values. Looking back at precipitation amounts from
earlier in the week this area received around 0.1 to 0.25 inches of
precipitation, this along with NASASPORT 0-10 cm soil moisture
around 15-25% across that area further confirms that any
precipitation did not help mitigate the dry conditions. All of this
plus the forecasted placement of a 30-35 knot 850mb jet in place
across most of SW Nebraska was enough for the issuance of the Red
Flag Warning. With winds, across that area forecast to
continuously gust 35-45 mph along with a signal for higher
sustained winds due to a breezy low level flow around 25 knots
for the entire day should be enough to negate a 1-2% RH
difference in critical criteria.

Tonight a surface trough is forecast to sweep through the area which
will turn the surface winds to a more southwesterly direction
setting up a tricky low temperature forecast. Just ahead of the
trough winds are forecast to go light and variable which will
set the stage for rapid cooling this evening, however an
increase in mid level moisture does favor an increase in cloud
cover which would mitigate how fall we do fall during that time.
As the winds become more southwesterly into more the
climatological "furnace wind" direction our temperatures may
actually rise during the very early morning hours Saturday.

Saturday, the surface trough is forecast to continue to traverse the
area during the morning hours leading to breezy before subsiding
west to east across the area as the trough moves off to the east.
There does look to be a slight uptick in dew points as some weak
moisture return occurs which would help to keep RH values up in the
low to mid 20s. With all of this said, the issuance of any fire
weather highlights does not look to be needed at this time.

During the afternoon hours, mid level moisture is forecast to
increase ahead of an approaching cold front in response to a
developing surface low across the northern Plains. 500-300mb Q
vector convergence is seen along with RAP forecast soundings
suggesting that convective temperatures will be met during the
afternoon to support the potential for some showers or dry
thunderstorms to develop with MUCAPE around 500-800 j/kg. Do
think that anything that does develop will be "dry" due to the
lack of moisture in the low levels, the inverted v soundings
and forecasted PWAT values only around 0.4 inches. Even looking
at the more aggressive convecting CAM (NAMNEST) its only giving
a tenth of inch of precip within the strongest core. Overall
confidence in these occurring are only around 10-20% confidence
at this time, but if they do develop then an additional source
for fire starts would be the most likely outcome. Again due to
the inverted v soundings we will need to keep an eye on these
showers/storms to produce strong to perhaps even severe wind as
they dissipate due to very unstable lapse rates, corfidi
downstream vectors of around 65-75 knots and DCAPE approaching
1000 j/kg. Confidence in that scenario is only around 5-10%. At
this time locales along and north of Interstate 70 is favored
for either of these potentials.

Saturday night will see the cold front sweep through bringing a
period of breezy to gusty winds of 40-45 mph overnight as 6-9mb
pressure rises occurs. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to
fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the area.

Sunday, is forecast to be another breezy day in wake of the cold
front and as the northern Plains surface low continues to move
off. At this time locales along and east of Highway 83 are
forecast to see the highest wind potential with some gusts
around 45 mph currently forecast. Due to the dry air mass in
wake of the cold front, some additional near critical to
critical fire weather concerns are possible for those areas as
well. I am going to opt to hold off on any headlines as there is
still a lingering snowpack in place across that area and there
is also the potential that the strongest winds move off quicker
to the east which would eliminate any threat for rapid fire
spread.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to show a 500mb ridge
sliding slowly east from the western portion of the country into the
central Plains by next Friday. This will allow for NW flow aloft at
least through midweek. The two models do begin to differ on the
placement of when the ridge axis crests over the central Plains for
the latter portion of the week. This is due to a passing shortwave
where the 12z GFS swings it through to our south during the Thu-Fri
timeframe. The latest ECMWF is a bit slower and pushes the system
across the CWA late Thursday into Friday. The latest NBM has been
fairly consistent in following the ECMWF. This will bring a 15-20%
chance for showers Friday morning, increasing slightly into the 20-
30% range during the day. The timing of the precip occurs as a cold
front moves off the Front Range w/ the bulk of the QPF positioned
behind the front. Some weak instability is possible, so can rule out
an isolated rumble of thunder. Despite this chance for precip, the
extended period will remain mostly dry with above normal
temperatures area-wide. There is the potential for Near Critical
fire wx conditions for portions of the region through Thursday.

For temps, daytime highs in the extended will range in the 70s area-
wide much of the time. Tuesday however, as a weak front pushes
through the area, mid 60s west through the lower 70s east are
expected. On Thursday, upper 70s to lower 80s are expected. Some
locales may come close to record highs. Please refer to the Climate
section below for further information. Overnight lows Monday,
Tuesday and Friday nights will range from the mid 30s west into the
lower 40s east. Wednesday and Thursday nights will be in the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 AM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for each terminal for this TAF
period. Northwest winds are forecast to be breezy through the
remainder of the afternoon gusting 25-35 knots before waning
this evening. A period of light and variable winds are also
forecast as the flow becomes more southerly again overnight;
breezy winds will then return Saturday morning as the nocturnal
inversion breaks.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Record high temperatures for March 27
Location    Old Record Year  Old Record  Forecast High
Goodland      1988              87            80
Hill City     1989              85            80
Burlington    2004              86            79
McCook        1962              82            80

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Trigg
CLIMATE...JN/CA