324
FXUS65 KGJT 232343
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
443 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect tonight and
  Saturday for most of the mountains in Colorado and La Sals
  and Abajos of Utah.

- Widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow is expected with locally
  higher amounts possible

- Some valley snow is also possible though amounts will differ
  greatly across the forecast area from 1-6 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

The cutoff low spinning off northern Baja continues to push warm,
moist air into the region. Surface obs around the Four Corners
highlight the warmer air still in place there, while a quick shift
to colder, drier air north of the Colorado River takes place on the
other side of the stationary boundary. This morning`s package really
picked up on this dry air with a sharp drop-off in precipitation
north of I-70. The Uintas, Flat Tops and Park Range will still get
some light snow, but stronger convective showers will remain south
on the Central and Southern Mountains. Snow showers will continue
across the region tonight, with mountain passes expected to see
numerous travel headaches through Saturday. Winter Weather
Advisories were left in place with 6-12 inches of mountain snow
expected, including locally higher totals on favored aspects.

Colder air will continue to push south with the front tonight and
Saturday, with orographic showers continuing across the terrain,
including some embedded snow showers in the more convective frontal
region, thanks to the introduced steeper lapse rate environment.
Cold, dry air filtering in behind the front Saturday night will
clear skies out from eastern Utah to just shy of the Continental
Divide. This will taper precipitation and send area
temperatures down into the seasonally correct neighborhood.
Mountain locales will likely dip below zero and our lower
elevation deserts will see temps dip into the teens Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

On Sunday northerly flow behind the system will usher in the post
frontal air mass making it the coldest day of the period. Wind gusts
ranging from 20 mph in the lower elevations to 45 mph in the
mountains will cause wind chill values to reach the single digits
and as low as -30 degrees along the peaks. Over the last few cycles
models have introduced a shortwave tracking over the High Plains.
This wave may be able to produce snow showers in the northern and
central mountains late morning through the evening. As for now
snowfall amounts are minor, but the combination of snow and wind
could cause some impacts to travel in the mountains. Dry northwest
flow continues early next week and temperatures gradually warm
up.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 443 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

An organized precipitation band stretches from E.Central Utah
into the central mountains late this afternoon. The central TAF
sites are suffering as a result with MVFR to LIFR condition due
to low clouds and vsby under 2 statute miles in snow showers.
The far northern and far southern TAF sites remain at VFR but
this should be changing over the next few hours with most sites
likely to be impacted by at least some light snow...though KVEL
has an outside chance of staying ILS or better. This storm will
be slow to move out and MVFR or worse conditions in most areas
linger through the morning with slow improvement through the
afternoon expected at this time. Terrain obscuration and
lingering valley fog conditions may linger into Sunday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ009-010-
     012-018-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ013.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Saturday for COZ017.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ023.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Saturday for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT