120
FXUS63 KGID 191135
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect through 2pm this
  afternoon for the entire forecast area. The combination of
  strong winds and blowing snow will result in visibility
  reductions to 1/4 mile or less, resulting in dangerous driving
  conditions. Travel is not advised.

- A High Wind Warning continues until 7pm this evening for the
  entire Hastings CWA. Winds associated with a potent winter
  storm have been gusting to around 40-60mph tonight. The strong
  winds are expected to continue as the low pressure system
  lifts to the northeast through the day.

- The next chance for measurable precipitation will occur over
  the weekend.

- Fire weather concerns return for the early part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Short Term (Wednesday through Friday):

The main focus of the forecast is the potent winter storm system
currently impacting the Great Plains and High Plains this morning.
Surface observations and radar are showing the low`s center
currently located to the south-southwest of the Hastings CWA, over
Central Kansas. Several bands of precipitation have developed over
the past few hours, moving from southeast to northwest around the
low pressure area. The band currently extending from Campbell to
Blue Hill to Stockham and Marquette is backbuilding, and has
produced graupel. Further west, precipitation has changed over to
snow. Several observation sites are reporting visibilities of less
than one mile.

Strong winds are expected to continue through the day, with gusts of
55-65mph expected in many areas, and isolated gusts to 70mph not out
of the question. The combination of strong winds and falling/blowing
snow will result in blizzard conditions during the morning commute.
If you must travel, please use caution.

Snow totals have gone up, with current expected amounts generally
around 2-6 inches of snow. There is a narrow band in the eastern
part of the CWA that could see closer to 6-10 inches of snow.
However, a relatively warm ground, delayed onset of p-type
transition to snow, a heavy and wet snow, and blowing and drifting
will result in measurable total snowfall accumulations to appear
lower than what may have actually been received.

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 2pm this afternoon for
the entire Hastings CWA. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for
the entire Hastings CWA until 7pm this evening. Please refer to the
warning products for further information.

The RGB Dust Channel (satellite) is showing a well-defined area of
dust extending from Texas into eastern Oklahoma, Kansas and
Nebraska. Cloud cover is limiting our ability to view the dust over
much of the Hastings forecast area this morning. However, we can see
some returns where dust appears to be present. With the incoming
precipitation, this may likely help settle a little of the dust on
surfaces, giving a muddy appearance.

Wednesday evening, the closed low will continue to lift to the
northeast, moving into central Iowa. Winds are expected to decrease,
giving us some reprieve. A weak upper ridge moves in over the region
on Thursday. High temperatures were lowered several degrees, with
highs now forecasted to be mainly in the 40s. A few 50s may be
possible.

Friday brings an upper trough sliding through Nebraska from the
northwest. The system will bring limited moisture to the area. At
this time, the majority of the area will remain dry. The extreme
northeastern part of the CWA may get clipped with an isolated shower
if this disturbance remains on its current track. High temperatures
are expected to be warmer, returning to the 50s for most areas.


Long Term (Saturday-Tuesday):

Saturday & Sunday...

Calming northwesterly winds with rising surface pressure would
favor quiet weather overnight Friday and into Saturday morning. The
establishment of 15-20 MPH southerly winds Saturday afternoon will
advect some warm air up into the region. Highs should warm around 10
degrees from Friday, up into the 60s.

A short wave trough approaching the central plains Saturday
night may stir up some isolated to scattered showers Saturday
night and into early Sunday morning (the best precipitation
potential in the extended period). Chances still remain somewhat
limited (20-35%) due to their highly scattered nature as well
as the presence of a not overly favorable moisture environment
(only up to 0.5" PWAT). Some lingering precipitation chances
Sunday morning will be follow by a gusty afternoon winds behind
a likely weakly defined cold front. 20- 25 MPH northwesterly
winds with gusts as high as 30-40 MPH will be possible. Highs
look to fall a few degrees shorter Sunday afternoon compared to
Saturday (into the 50s).

Near-critical to isolated critical fire weather conditions may
surface Saturday/Sunday. Slightly drier conditions Satudray (15-25%
RH) and gustier winds Sunday (up to 40 MPH) keep the weekend on
watch for fire weather potential. The driest and generally wost
conditions should lie towards the west of the local area.

Monday & Beyond...

A ridging pattern across the western U.S. early next week
should really slow things down across the central plains. A
gradual warmup through mid week should takes place as the upper-
level ridge drags eastward. PoPs remain below mentionable past
Sunday with stabilizing conditions underneath the ridge. An
extended period of west to north winds early next week with
little precipitation potential should quickly dry things out and
could bring back fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Blizzard conditions with visibility down to 1/4 mile or less and
strong wind gusts of 50-60kts will continue through early
afternoon at both terminals. Snow will taper off around early
afternoon with visibility improving. Gusty north winds will
persist through early evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Blizzard Warning until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Blizzard Warning until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump/Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser