Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
334 FXUS64 KFWD 052336 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 636 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain may lead to instances of flash flooding in parts of Central Texas tonight and early Sunday. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through Friday of next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Slow moving tropical showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of Central TX this afternoon with efficient rain rates exceeding 3"/hr at times. The main concern over the next 12-18 hours will be potential for redevelopment of slow moving tropical like rainfall overnight continuing into early Sunday, particularly across our southwest counties. Latest hi-res guidance continues to highlight a signal for heavy rainfall overnight from Comanche to Hamilton to Lampasas where a weak mid level circulation is noted and steering winds are light. With PW`s still well above 2" in an axis along and west of the I-35 corridor, any focused area of rainfall will be extremely efficient and will pose a threat for flash flooding. The Flood Watch has been extended through noon Sunday and expanded to include Mills County. As has been noted the last few nights throughout Central TX, the exact location of heaviest rainfall is extremely difficult to pin down, but conditions throughout the region remain very favorable for heavy rains to result in flash flooding and this threat will continue tonight, especially across our southwest. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday Night/ On-and-off showers and storms will persist across our region through this evening as the center of the decaying MCV lingers south of our CWA in south-central Texas. The 12Z sounding from FWD and recent high-res guidance continues to show plenty of deep layer moisture across the region with PW values around 2.4 inches. The influence of this disturbance will continue to support at least light-to-moderate showers including a few storms through this evening. Brief pockets of moderate/heavy rain are still possible across the Flood Watch area, but the highest coverage of heavy rain and flash flooding is forecast to remain south of our area. As we`ve seen the last few days, most precip will end around sunset but some locations across Central TX could see some lingering rain overnight. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow with scattered showers and isolated storms. An embedded disturbance in the flow aloft will move southward, coinciding with an area of decent moisture in the lower levels. Areas generally along and west of I-35 will have the best chances (30-50%) to see rain during the day. Locally heavy rain and flooding will be possible, especially across those locations in western central Texas that have seen multiple rounds of rain in the last few days. The bulk of the precipitation will end in the evening with dry weather expected Sunday night. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025/ /Next Week/ The long-term period features some low rain chances Monday through Wednesday, followed by a period of drier weather towards the end of the week. Those chances will be limited primarily to areas along the Red River to the northwest both Monday and Tuesday. A few diurnally driven showers and storms are possible across East Texas on Wednesday. The summer heat will return as high pressure develops across the southwestern U.S. and builds eastward. Temperatures will warm back into the mid to upper 90s by mid-week with heat indices in the 98-105 range. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR generally prevails across the D10 airspace, but some intermittent MVFR cigs will be possible through the evening. Farther south, more widespread MVFR cigs and areas of precipitation continue. For the rest of tonight, we`ll maintain southerly flow around 10 kt with the focus for heavy rainfall mainly to the west and southwest of the major airports. Widespread MVFR cigs are expected to develop and overspread the region later tonight and continue through midday Sunday. Some additional shower activity is expected through the day Sunday. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas due to the potential for flooding today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 89 76 92 76 / 20 30 5 10 5 Waco 73 87 73 90 73 / 50 40 5 5 0 Paris 72 92 73 93 72 / 10 10 0 20 5 Denton 73 89 73 92 74 / 20 30 5 20 5 McKinney 74 91 74 93 74 / 20 10 5 20 5 Dallas 75 90 76 93 76 / 20 20 5 10 5 Terrell 72 91 73 93 73 / 10 10 0 10 5 Corsicana 74 91 74 93 75 / 20 10 0 5 0 Temple 72 88 72 91 72 / 60 40 5 10 0 Mineral Wells 73 87 73 90 72 / 30 50 5 30 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ142>144-156>159. && $$