230
FXUS64 KFWD 212326
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
626 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected over the weekend and next
  week.

- Low storm chances return Sunday afternoon/evening mainly across
  our southeast counties. A few storms could be strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Saturday Night/

A period of quiet weather is expected to continue through much of
the weekend as a passing shortwave sends a weak cold front into
the area this evening. Breezy southerly winds will continue to
diminish over the next few hours as this weak front makes it down
to about the I-20 corridor before stalling out. No significant
temperature change is expected behind the front, but winds will
briefly go north for a few hours before this boundary washes out
and southerly winds return. We`ll see another relatively cool
night with temperatures in the mid 40s and lower 50s.

Saturday will feature sunny skies with increasing southerly winds
again ahead of another system moving through the Plains.
Temperatures will warm back into the low to mid 80s with winds 15
to 25 mph. Minimum RH values will be a little higher than today,
so the overall fire threat will be lower on Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 218 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Breezy winds will continue Saturday night as the pressure
gradient remains tight over North and Central Texas due to the
proximity of a surface low to our north. The low`s attendant cold
front will dive towards the area on Sunday, crossing the Red River
in the morning and continuing south through Central Texas during
the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the
front, with the greatest coverage expected to be in Central Texas
during the evening and overnight hours. However, the presence of a
cap introduces some uncertainty in how much coverage we will end
up seeing. It`s possible storms will struggle to develop and/or
intensify if the cap holds. However, there remains a low potential
for isolated strong to severe storms if the cap is able to break
or weaken sufficiently, with hail and damaging winds expected to
be the main hazards. The tornado threat will be low, but an
isolated tornado can`t be entirely ruled out. Additionally, an
elevated wildfire threat will materialize again Sunday afternoon
west of I-35 as a result of low humidity and breezy winds ahead of
and behind the front.

A significant cool-down is not expected behind the cold front
early next week, but high temperatures will at least be a few
degrees lower Monday afternoon (in the mid 70s to low 80s).
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the next week with high
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s, but another cold front
will bring cooler temperatures and additional opportunities for
showers and storms to the region. While there are still some
discrepancies in the onset of rain chances, there is a strong
signal in ensemble guidance that we will return to a more active
pattern by mid to late next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around
10 kt becoming light out of the north in a few hours behind a weak
cold front. This northerly flow will be short lived with southerly
winds returning early Saturday morning and increasing to 15 to
25 kt by afternoon. There is a low chance for some low MVFR cigs
to develop in Central TX overnight, but as of now we don`t have
anything impacting any North TX airports.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  82  63  82  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
Waco                52  82  62  86  54 /   0   0   0  10  40
Paris               44  77  60  79  48 /   0   0   0  20  20
Denton              45  81  60  81  46 /   0   0   0   5  10
McKinney            46  79  61  80  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dallas              51  82  63  85  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
Terrell             49  79  61  81  50 /   0   0   0  20  30
Corsicana           52  82  63  83  54 /   0   0   0  20  50
Temple              52  84  61  85  54 /   0   0   0  10  40
Mineral Wells       45  85  60  82  47 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$