626
FXUS63 KFSD 270326
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1026 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to gradually rise this week with highs
  in the 70s to lower and mid 80s Friday. High temperatures on
  Friday may break records.

- Periodic light precipitation chances (20-30 percent) continue
  this evening, tonight into Thursday morning, and Thursday
  evening across portions of the area. Precipitation may
  struggle due to dry air.

- Strong winds and warm temperatures lead to elevated fire
  danger Friday, despite increased humidity.

- Better chances (60+ percent) for more widespread rainfall
  begin Friday night and continue through the weekend. There are
  moderate to high (40-70+ percent) of at least 0.5 inches of
  rain (or liquid equivalent) through this time. Light snow is
  possible on the backside of the system, although amounts
  currently look to be light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Short wave tracking through the Dakotas and MN has been providing
enough lift and WAA for showers to develop. However, with dry sub
cloud layer, precipitation has been struggling to reach the ground.
A few locations have seen a trace of rainfall, and anticipate any
rainfall accumulations to be a couple hundredths or less. Showers
and sprinkles continue through the evening hours. Cloud cover has
tempered how quickly we`ve warmed today, although still expect highs
in the upper 50s to lower 70s (warmest in south central SD). Winds
remain fairly light and shift southeasterly. Gusts around 20 mph are
possible into the evening hours.

Additional showers/sprinkles are possible tonight into early
Thursday morning as the WAA associated with the wave becomes
coincident with the strengthening LLJ and surface trough sliding
east. Continued dry sub cloud layer should keep precipitation
amounts light and/or limited to sprinkles - with a few hundredths of
an inch possible. Lows tonight in the 30s and 40s. Winds may gust
around 15 mph overnight.

Mid and upper level ridging slides east on Thursday into Friday,
with low pressure deepens in the west. Thursday brings a slightly
warmer day than today, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Easterly
flow at the surface will become more southerly Thursday night into
Friday. Most of Thursday should be dry; however, rain and isolated
storm chances return along and south of US Hwy 20 into northwestern
IA/southwestern MN during the late afternoon and evening hours as
the warm front lifts north and mid level wave swing through. Most
guidance has 1000 J/kg or less of MUCAPE, with the stronger bulk
shear (40 kts or more) offset from the stronger instability. Given
this, severe weather is not expected, but a stronger storm could
produce some hail (given steep mid level lapse rates) during the
evening and into Thursday night.

Strengthening surface low moves east through the early part of
Friday, dragging a cold front behind it. Strong WAA and southerly
flow allow our temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s for
highs Friday - near to above records for some locations. Winds gusts
of 40 mph are possible with peak mixing during the afternoon hours,
and strong gusts may return into the evening hours behind the cold
front. Southerly winds shift northwesterly behind the aforementioned
front. Increasing moisture should keep humidity values above
critical thresholds for fire concerns, but strong winds will allow
any fire which starts to spread quickly with very high fire danger.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening
hours in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Again, lack of
shear should temper strong to severe storm threat.

As this system moves east, another surface low deepens across NE/KS
into the early part of Saturday, with another mid/upper level wave
ejecting out of the Rockies. This brings continued chances for rain
and isolated rumbles of thunder through the weekend as it moves off
to the east. This could bring beneficial rainfall to the region,
with probabilities of 0.5" or more of rain (or liquid equivalent)
between 40-70% for most of our area. Chances for an inch or more are
low to moderate (40% or less) across the eastern portion of the
area. Exact track and location of the heaviest precip remain
uncertain, so keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor or
travel plans this weekend. Colder air wraps into the back of the
system by Saturday night into Sunday, which could bring some snow
accumulations to the region. Amounts look light at this time. Strong
northerly winds continue through the weekend as well. Highs in the
30s and 40s.

We may see a brief reprieve from precip chances early next week
with brief high pressure Monday. A couple of short waves are
progged to move through the region into mid next week. Highs in
the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the TAF period.
Taking a look at satellite imagery, areas of stratus and mid-
level clouds continue mostly across southwestern MN with a few
pockets of elevated showers this evening. Expect this lingering
activity to gradually dissipate over the next few hours. From
here, an strengthening LLJ overnight will help develop a few
scattered showers along and south of the Highway-20 corridor as
another wave approached. As a result, added in a few hours of
LLWS and -SHRA to KSUX through about 12z. Lastly, light winds
overnight will become breezy easterly winds by Thursday
afternoon with gusts between 15-25 mph expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...05