539
FXUS65 KFGZ 270502
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1002 PM MST Wed Mar 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will spread cloud cover and a few
isolated showers across northern Arizona through early this
evening. Otherwise, warm temperatures continue through Thursday,
before a breezy and cooler pattern sets up Friday and lasts into
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...A weak area of low pressure is moving across southern
Arizona this evening as seen on water vapor loop. Radar has been
picking up light echoes over northern Arizona which are
dissipating rapidly this evening. The surface layers are very dry
with dewpoint depressions 10 to 20 C and the 00Z sounding had a
classic inverted "V" profile starting at just below 5H. Little if
any precipitation reached the ground across northern Arizona this
afternoon and evening. No updates needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /403 PM MST/...A weak trough is moving eastward through the state
this afternoon, with mid-level moisture spreading northward across
our area. There has been some virga around the region so far
today, with some surface based convection also developing from
around Ganado into the Chuska Mountains as of 1215 PM. Expect that
additional weak convection will develop later in the afternoon
from around the Mogollon Rim northward. Rainfall amounts, if any,
are expected to remain very light. However, with a dry boundary
layer, some of the convection will contain downburst winds with
gusts 30-45 mph. This activity should clear the area by early
this evening with clearing skies overnight.

Thursday - low pressure will take up residence off the west coast
where it will mostly remain over the next week. Southwest winds
will increase by afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph. Temperatures will
remain on the warm side for one more day, until the trough gets a
bit closer to the region.

Friday through the weekend - a few shortwaves will pass mostly
north of the state through the period. While some of the
operational and ensemble members show some light showers at times
mainly along/north of I-40, the blended guidance keeps PoPs below
15% at this time. The main impact of these shortwaves will be an
increase in winds along with temperatures cooling back down to
near normal for late March. Gusts both Friday and Saturday
afternoon will be 30-40 mph.

Early next week - Monday looks fair and a bit warmer. Tuesday
onward - more uncertainty in the forecast regarding the evolution
of troughing to our north. Some of the ensembles are clustering
toward a deeper solution that could bring colder temperatures and
a chance of precipitation by around mid week, with others much
weaker/warmer. For now, our forecasts will include some 15-25%
PoPs by next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 27/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. Light and variable winds forecast
overnight, becoming SW 10-20 kts after 18Z. Wind gusts could reach
near 30 kts between 18Z-02Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 28/06Z through Sunday 30/06Z...VFR conditions
forecast to continue through the outlook period. SW winds 15-25
kts, gusting near 40 kts, possible Friday afternoon, shifting more
W-SW on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Above normal daytime highs
expected on Thursday, becoming near normal for Friday. Slight chance
of showers possible across the White Mountains on Thursday, with
widespread dry conditions by Friday. Look for southwest winds 15-25
mph, gusting near 30-40 mph, both afternoons.

Saturday through Monday...Dry with temperatures cooling to seasonal
averages. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph Saturday,
subsiding to SW-W 10-20 mph on Sunday, SW 10-20 mph on Monday. Min
RH`s 10-20% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/JJ
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff