


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
222 FXUS63 KFGF 070344 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1044 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms with a level 1 out of 5 risk is forecasted Monday afternoon and evening. - The potential exists for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening, then again on Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Showers in central North Dakota have dissipated as expected with a cluster of thunderstorms moving into the NW corner of the state from northeast MT. These will prevail as they track east entering the Devils Lake area by sunrise. Not expecting these to be severe but lightning will likely be a threat. UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Showers ongoing across central North Dakota this afternoon with winds up to 40 mph and possibly some small hail. Sporadic lightning may become more frequent should storms persist past dark otherwise little in the way of thunderstorm hazards are expected tonight in eastern North Dakota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...Synopsis... Currently, a 500mb wave is pushing across northern ND. This wave has produced showers on and off across Bismarck`s northern FA, but as it entered the Devils Lake Basin, most showers fell apart. Any remaining sprinkles should continue to dwindle over the next couple of hours. Northerly winds have advected in smoke from Canadian wildfires. While at times you can smell it, smoke has not resulted in visibility reductions, with air quality across most of the region holding steady in the `moderate` category. Lingering smoke will likely persist into tonight, especially along and north of Highway 2. 38 Further west, another wave is visible on water vapor over Alberta. This wave will propagate through our area on Monday. In turn some strong to severe thunderstorms will return to the forecast. Ridging midweek will advect warmer, more humid air into the region. This will be short lived, as yet another wave pushes through on Thursday, bringing thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. ...Severe Storms Monday... Instability on the order of about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots will align across much of the FA Monday afternoon. While there may be some weaker thunderstorms in the morning, severe weather is anticipated to develop during the mid afternoon, west of the Red River Valley. Initially, shear may allow for brief supercells, but as has been mentioned for awhile, this seems to be a messier event, and the expectation is that clusters will quickly evolve. As storms push east into the Red River Valley, hail will be the primary threat within any stronger cores. Instability wanes east of the Red River Valley, so the thinking here is the severe threat should be even more isolated. ...Severe Storms Thursday... A potent wave will propagate across the Prairie Provinces of Canada Wednesday into Thursday. There remains differences in the timing of the wave, which will impact the eventual evolution of severe weather in this FA. Instability still looks plentiful, as warm and humid air will be advected into the region. However, shear is more marginal and capping could be an issue. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% outlook for much of the FA west of the Red River Valley. All things considered, the potential is there for severe weather, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in its eventual evolution. The eventual evolution will determine the hazards, and their magnitude, which will be ironed out over the next few days. In addition, depending on the speed of the wave, instability and forcing may still be in place on Friday for severe weather across the eastern FA. Plenty to watch late week moving forward. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR skies tonight with some overnight rain/thunder in DVL (06z to 12z). A little more confidence after 12z in showers across eastern ND and into MN by 18z or so. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon (18-00z) but weak forcing will contribute to low spatial predictability. Winds will be calm tonight becoming SW in the afternoon Monday and NW in the evening behind the front and wave of storms. Should MVFR conditions occur it will be due to thunder/rain showers at taf sites. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...TT