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FXUS63 KFGF 070344
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1044 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms with a level 1 out of 5 risk is
  forecasted Monday afternoon and evening.

- The potential exists for strong to severe storms Thursday
  afternoon and evening, then again on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers in central North Dakota have dissipated as expected with
a cluster of thunderstorms moving into the NW corner of the
state from northeast MT. These will prevail as they track east
entering the Devils Lake area by sunrise. Not expecting these to
be severe but lightning will likely be a threat.

UPDATE
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers ongoing across central North Dakota this afternoon with
winds up to 40 mph and possibly some small hail. Sporadic
lightning may become more frequent should storms persist past
dark otherwise little in the way of thunderstorm hazards are
expected tonight in eastern North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...Synopsis...

Currently, a 500mb wave is pushing across northern ND. This wave
has produced showers on and off across Bismarck`s northern FA,
but as it entered the Devils Lake Basin, most showers fell
apart. Any remaining sprinkles should continue to dwindle
over the next couple of hours. Northerly winds have advected
in smoke from Canadian wildfires. While at times you can smell
it, smoke has not resulted in visibility reductions, with air
quality across most of the region holding steady in the
`moderate` category. Lingering smoke will likely persist into
tonight, especially along and north of Highway 2.
38
Further west, another wave is visible on water vapor over
Alberta. This wave will propagate through our area on Monday. In
turn some strong to severe thunderstorms will return to the
forecast. Ridging midweek will advect warmer, more humid air
into the region. This will be short lived, as yet another wave
pushes through on Thursday, bringing thunderstorms, some of
which could be severe.

...Severe Storms Monday...

Instability on the order of about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6
km bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots will align across much of the FA
Monday afternoon. While there may be some weaker thunderstorms
in the morning, severe weather is anticipated to develop during
the mid afternoon, west of the Red River Valley. Initially,
shear may allow for brief supercells, but as has been mentioned
for awhile, this seems to be a messier event, and the
expectation is that clusters will quickly evolve. As storms push
east into the Red River Valley, hail will be the primary threat
within any stronger cores. Instability wanes east of the Red
River Valley, so the thinking here is the severe threat should
be even more isolated.

...Severe Storms Thursday...

A potent wave will propagate across the Prairie Provinces of
Canada Wednesday into Thursday. There remains differences in
the timing of the wave, which will impact the eventual evolution
of severe weather in this FA. Instability still looks
plentiful, as warm and humid air will be advected into the
region. However, shear is more marginal and capping could be an
issue. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% outlook for
much of the FA west of the Red River Valley. All things
considered, the potential is there for severe weather, but there
is still a lot of uncertainty in its eventual evolution. The
eventual evolution will determine the hazards, and their
magnitude, which will be ironed out over the next few days.

In addition, depending on the speed of the wave, instability
and forcing may still be in place on Friday for severe weather
across the eastern FA. Plenty to watch late week moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR skies tonight with some overnight rain/thunder in DVL (06z
to 12z). A little more confidence after 12z in showers across
eastern ND and into MN by 18z or so. Thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon (18-00z) but weak forcing will contribute to low
spatial predictability. Winds will be calm tonight becoming SW
in the afternoon Monday and NW in the evening behind the front
and wave of storms. Should MVFR conditions occur it will be due
to thunder/rain showers at taf sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...TT