992
FXUS63 KFGF 191149
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
649 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions may develop this
  afternoon over southeast ND and again Thursday afternoon along
  and west of the  Red River Valley.

- There is a 30% chance for minor (advisory) winter impacts due
  to snow accumulations 3" or greater Saturday night into
  Sunday. The highest probabilities are in northwest Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Overall sky cover is diminishing as anticipated. Did update sky
cover grids and wind grids with latest data for TAFs. Otherwise
gusty winds today in the south valley, near advisory levels but
likely just below.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...Synopsis...

A strong mid/upper trough/low is passing through the Central
Plains into the Midwest south of our region, with the a
baroclinic zone just southeast of our CWA. Snow has been limited
in our south due to a substantial elevated dry layer with virga
or a few flurries at the most this morning in our west central
MN counties. Progressive west- northwest flow remains in place
across the northern CONUS, with fast moving short wave ridges
and troughs passing near or over our CWA. This results in
variable temperatures day to day as flow shifts to the north
behind a cold front (today), to the west southwest bringing WAA
(Thursday), then cooler again behind a front Friday. The
Thursday night/Friday shortwave is fairly week, but there is a
signal for light precipitation as it moves through the region
(though measurable chances for rain/snow are very low). A
stronger shortwave trough moves into the region
Saturday/Saturday night before broader ridging begins to build
into the western US early next week (drier and warmer pattern).

...Near Critical Fire Weather Today and Thursday...

Deep mixing with dry air aloft may help mixed layer Tds fall into
the lower teens while clearing skies (despite CAA aloft) allow for
highs to reach 40 in our south. Reasonable worst case scenario based
on the 10th percentile of Tds and 90th percentile of temps would
support RH values this afternoon around 30% in southeast ND where
dry finer/one hour fuels are in place. This may be more localized,
with 35-40% RH values more common. Good gradient and mixed layer
winds could result in gusts around 35 mph, with sustained winds may
remain closer to 15-30 mph (highest in the RRV). RFW criteria isn`t
expected at this point, but it will be worth monitoring for
potential near critical fire weather conditions in the southern RRV
this afternoon. RH values are more likely to fall into the 24-30%
range Thursday based on warmer temperatures and a dry mixed layer.
Winds should be a bit less, but could still be breezy enough to
monitor (gusts to 30 mph).

...Accumulating Snow Potential This Weekend...

A progressive shortwave trough moving out of the Pacific NW along
the US/Canada border. There is good ensemble consensus on the
general 500 MB pattern/timing, with the main uncertainty in the
strength of the 700MB which will influence higher rates/potential
deformation, and the timing of the colder air/transition to snow as
the precipitation moves through our CWA. Initially p-type is more
likely to be rain, and the rain to snow changeover increases in
likelihood with the deepening of the 700MB low in MN. Based on the
current trends in evolution, the highest probs (NBM) for 0.25"+ 24hr
QPF and 24hr snowfall 3"+ is in northwest MN (20-30%). There isn`t
currently an organized frontogenesis signal, with WAA and eventual
deformation the main drivers of organized precipitation. Since the
wave remains progressive, impacts currently favor advisory (minor)
driven by snowfall amounts/rates. Winds would increase on the back
side of this system, however at this point this is not co-located
with the main period of snowfall and without blowable snow pack,
blowing snow would not be as much of a driver of impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Clouds decreasing in coverage thru the day. We have these
patches of MVFR and lower end VFR clouds around to start the
day, with several clear areas. Overall trend will be for areas
to be scattered this afternoon cloud wise. Gusty winds from the
north in the RRV especially, gusts 30 kts in Fargo and lower
elsewhere. Winds diminish overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Riddle