795
FXUS62 KFFC 270526
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Forecast remains on track for this evening. The Red Flag Warning
and Fire Danger Statement that were in effect through 8PM tonight have
since been allowed to expire. Winds will continue to slacken
overnight as a surface high nudges gradually eastward overhead.
Despite a shift to more southeasterly winds as the high exits the
Eastern Seaboard, not expecting any major improvements in
moisture through tomorrow. A new Fire Danger Statement has been
issued for all of north and central Georgia through 8PM Thursday
afternoon due to minimum values of relative humidity at or below
critical thresholds and lingering dry fuels.

96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

500mb analysis shows a broad trough along the east coast today with
NW flow aloft across the CWA. The trough in the mid levels is
expected to persist through tomorrow but will shift offshore tomorrow
night as ridging builds in from the west. Some mid/high level
cloudiness is possible within the flow.

At the surface, old frontal boundary is situated across north
Florida. The boundary should continue to push southward overnight as
high pressure builds in from the north. The high center currently
across the central US will move eastward through tomorrow and then
offshore the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow night.

Conditions will remain dry with slightly above normal temps through
the period.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Key messages:

 - High fire danger likely through Friday with warm and dry
   conditions.

 - Rain chances return over the weekend into early next week, with
   the potential for strong to severe storms.

Elevated fire danger is expected to persist into Friday before more
low-level moisture reaches the area. The long term period will start
with a weak upper ridge over the SE U.S. and a shortwave over TX. The
shortwave is progged to move ENE as it dampens out through the
weekend. By Sunday night, the shortwave will move off the SE U.S.
coast, with upper flow becoming more zonal across the area.

At the surface, low pressure over the N Plains on Friday will dive
SSE into the weekend as it weakens. Southerly flow will advect
increasing moisture across the area from the Gulf through the
weekend. This, in concert with increasing instability and dynamic
forcing (albeit waning) will support thunderstorm development. The
best chances of rain and the highest QPF is forecast to precede a
cold front which will move into the area late Sunday into Monday.
Storm total rainfall from the weekend into early next week is
forecast to range from around 1.5" in the N to around one quarter of
an inch in the SE corner of the County Warning Area (CWA). Locally
higher amounts are possible before the cold front weakens in the N
and in stronger storms. SPC has NW Georgia in a 15% severe risk area
for Sunday and Sunday night, with another 15% risk area across most
of the state for Monday and Monday night.

Temperatures will run well above normal through most of the period
(10 to 15 degrees above normal), although readings will drop back
closer to normal behind the front early next week (still about 5
degrees above normal). /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR to continue through the 06Z TAF period with primarily SKC and
intermittent FEW-SCT CIGs at 20-25kft. Winds will be light (5-7
kts or less) through the period, shifting from the NE-E by this
morning and then SE-S from this afternoon through the rest of the
period. ATL sites could see a brief switch to SSW winds around
21Z-00Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence for all elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          42  74  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         47  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     36  69  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    42  76  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        49  81  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     43  73  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           46  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            41  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  44  77  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         48  79  52  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Culver