996
FXUS62 KFFC 170002
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

 - Above average temperatures will continue this week, with the
   warmest weather occurring on Thursday and Friday.

 - Rain chances will gradually increase after Wednesday, with the
   best odds widespread rainfall holding off until at least
   Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tonight & Tuesday:

Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface will bring
quiet weather to Georgia tonight and Tuesday. If any hazardous
weather does occur it would be in the form of patchy dense fog
between 4 AM and 10 AM Tuesday. Fair skies and light winds will
favor fog formation overnight, while a marginal level of surface
moisture should be a limiting factor. Thus fog is most likely in
low lying areas where cold air drainage and a moisture source will
favor saturation. Areas potentially meeting this definition
include the creek and river valleys, and places near the larger
regional lakes. Widespread fog in the is not expected in the
Atlanta Metro (<10% chance). Fair skies (just a few passing
cirrus) should allow temperatures to warm quickly on Tuesday, with
highs in the upper 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Warm This Week:

Overall, above average temperatures will continue through Friday
across the region, courtesy of persistent warm air advection
within low-level southwest flow. This setup will start to take
shape on Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis extending over
the Eastern US gets flattened out by a weakening shortwave moving
across the Central US into the OH/TN Valleys. By late in the day
Wednesday, low-level flow over Georgia will turn out of the
southwest and start to strengthen as the pressure gradient
tightens between high pressure / ridging over the Caribbean and
low pressure / troughing over the Central US. This southwest flow
will continuously pump a very warm and increasingly humid airmass
into the region for Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures
climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight low temperatures
will only fall as low as the dewpoints, which will be in the upper
50s to low 60s. Both high and low temperatures will be over 15
degrees warmer than normal, and daily records may be threatened or
broken. One potential `fly in the ointment` for how warm the high
temps get will be cloud cover, which will be widespread at times.

Rain Chances Ramp Up By Friday:

Most, if not all, areas will remain dry on Wednesday as the
aforementioned shortwave and associated frontal boundary stall out
to the northwest over the Tennessee Valley. There could be just
enough moisture to squeeze out some areas of light rain, but
chances are low (<15%) due to the airmass starting out quite dry
and lingering subsidence from the ridge. On Thursday, another,
stronger shortwave and its associated surface low will start to
push across the Central Plains into the Midwest. This will
reinforce the southwest flow and warm air advection over Georgia,
with enough moisture and forcing to support areas of light rain in
the morning. Some of the model guidance has a bit of instability
developing in the afternoon, with isolated showers and weak
thunderstorms not out of the question. From late Thursday into
Friday, rain chances become much higher as a frontal boundary
associated with the strengthening low over the Great Lakes pushes
into the Southeast US. Model guidance starts to have quite a bit
of spread from this point on, creating a low confidence forecast
for most of the upcoming weekend. The consensus of the ensembles
fall into two camps, with one camp stalling the front out over
Georgia and keeping rain/thunderstorms chances around through most
of the weekend, while the other camp has the front clear the area
by Saturday morning with a relatively dry rest of the weekend.
Slightly leaning toward the stalled-out front, wetter weekend
scenario based on the trends in guidance and the parent low being
so far displaced to the north. Interestingly enough, guidance
comes into much better agreement for late Sunday into next week,
with a cooler and drier airmass moving in as longwave troughing
sets up over the Eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Scattered cirrus should be prevailing through the overnight with
the potential for low CIGS (IFR) to develop ~10-11z and last
through ~13-14z. Should see those quickly lift with scattered
cirrus taking over again. SE to SSE winds will prevail through the
period.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on IFR CIGS.
High confidence on all other elements.
Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          38  67  48  68 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         42  67  51  69 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     36  63  46  62 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    41  69  51  71 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        43  70  50  71 /   0   0   0  20
Gainesville     40  65  49  67 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           39  69  50  71 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            43  73  55  74 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  40  68  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         40  71  52  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Hernandez