192
FXUS64 KEWX 060255
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
955 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy rains
  later tonight into Sunday morning. Flood Watch for the Hill Country
  and I-35 corridor has been extended through 1 PM CDT Sunday.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" Monday.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Multiple models show another round of showers and thunderstorms with
pockets of heavy rains later tonight into Sunday morning. As a
result, have extended the Flood Watch through 1 PM CDT on Sunday.
Have also increased POPs for the Hill Country to along the I-35
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A mid level MCV and unusually moist airmass continue move
across our CWA. Forcing by this feature will generate rounds of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Storm motion will be slow.
The tropical nature of the airmass is leading to efficient warm
rain processes. As a result, locally heavy rain will be possible
this evening. New rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with isolated
amounts up to 5 inches is possible. This rain will aggravate
ongoing flooding and likely create new flooding as soils are
saturated making runoff more rapid. The heaviest rains will be
over the Hill Country to along and east of the I-35 Corridor
this evening. A Flood Watch is now in effect until 10pm. Most
models show the rain shifting to our western areas Sunday.
Models are showing lower rainfall totals for Sunday. The clouds
and rain areas will conspire to keep daytime temperatures below
to well below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The mid level feature may remain close enough to our CWA to
generate isolated showers and isolated Monday. The airmass will
remain moist and there will be a possibility of locally heavy
downpours. Most models/ensembles show the subtropical ridge
pushing the mid level feature away from our area while bringing
increased subsidence and decreasing moisture. This will keep
rainfall out of the forecast for the remainder of this coming
week. However, the GFS shows an inverted trough moving in from
the east which could bring chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. This solution is not in the
NBM and thus not in our forecast. Later forecasts may introduce
rain chances should this become a trend. Increased sunshine will
lead to temperatures warming to near or slightly above averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Widespread RA continues across parts of the I-35 Corridor this
evening. Expect RA and isolated -TSRAs to continue over KAUS until
at least 03Z and -RA over KSAT and KSSF until 02Z as such have added
PROB30s to account for this. Based off recent model guidance precip
should be ending over the I-35 TAF sites by overnight with continuing
MVFR and possible IFR CIGS until early afternoon. There is the
possibility for redevelopment of showers and storms to impact I-35
TAF sites in the afternoon but based on inconsistent model guidance,
have left mention out of the TAFS for now. For KDRT VFR conditions
continue with MVFR CIGS expected by 14Z with VFR conditions
returning by 18Z. Additionally, there is chance of -RA/-TSRA around
18Z to 21Z but have left mention out of TAFS due to low confidence.
Expect VFR conditions to return towards end of Forecast period for
all TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  73  92  74 /  80  40  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  73  91  74 /  80  40  30   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  75  92  73 /  70  40  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            83  72  87  72 /  80  50  50  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  77  93  76 /   0  10  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  73  89  73 /  80  40  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             89  75  88  73 /  30  30  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  74  91  73 /  80  40  30   0 .KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy
  rains this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the
  Hill Country and I-35 corridor through 10 PM CDT.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" into Monday.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer next week.

&&La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 75 93 74 / 60 10 10 0 San Antonio
Intl Airport 87 75 90 75 / 60 40 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 90 76 92
75 / 50 40 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-
Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...CJM