844
FXUS64 KEWX 212321
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Key message:

- Elevated to Near Critical Fire Weather conditions across the Hill
Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains through
early this evening

Breezy southerly winds from 10 to 20 mph with a hand full of surface
observations coming in between 21 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
summarized the weather conditions at the 130 to 230 PM hour block.
Relative humidity values are ranging from 15 to 29 percent across
the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande where a
Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 7 PM CDT this evening.
Wind speeds and gusts are expected to decrease a bit the rest of
this afternoon.

As far as temperatures go, highs to reach the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Sunny skies will persist for the rest of today with clear skies
expected for this evening. Increased moisture from the Gulf to
arrive across the local area overnight into Saturday morning. Patchy
fog and reduced visibility can`t be ruled out by day-break to about
9 AM especially near and along the I-35 Corridor and southern
Edwards Plateau areaS.

Clouds begin to break mid to late Saturday morning for a partly
cloudy afternoon. High temperatures are forecasted to reach the
lower to mid 80s across most areas with lower 90s across the
southern portion of the Rio Grande Plains. Another breezy and gusty
day is in store for Saturday especially during the afternoon period
with wind speeds around 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. No
fire weather concerns for Saturday across most areas due to the
increase of moisture over South Central Texas.

The wind does pick up some Saturday evening into the overnight
period as a low level jet sets up in advance of a mid level short-
wave moving across the Southern Plains. So, the southerly wind flow
stays elevated mainly along and east of I-35 Corridor for most of
the night time frame. Overnight lows range from the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Low chance for showers and storms Sunday evening into early Monday.
- Better chance for widespread showers and storms Wednesday evening
  into Friday.

Occasionally gusty south winds may persist into early Sunday
afternoon, but wind speeds should begin to decrease by late
afternoon. The winds are expected to decrease as the pressure
gradient eases ahead of a cold front. The cold front will likely not
have an impact on high temperatures, so above normal highs ranging
from the lower 80s to lower 90s can be expected. We will keep an eye
on the cloud cover as expansive low clouds may knock a few degrees
off the current forecast. The above mentioned cold front will move
southward during the evening hours and with models showing some mid-
level support over the region, rain chances from the Hill Country
eastward through the I-35 corridor and into the coastal plains will
remain in the forecast. Overall rainfall amounts are likely to remain
low, with some 1/4" amounts possible along and east of I-35, mainly
north of San Antonio. We will continue to monitor the SPC convective
outlooks as the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms is
just northeast of our region.

Temperatures on Monday will cool a bit, but most areas should still
manage to peak in the 80s, with perhaps near 90 out west along the
Rio Grande. Southerly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere
resumes Tuesday as highs quickly rebound into the mid 80s to mid 90s.
The pattern begins to become a little more active Wednesday as
southwest flow aloft begins to increase in advance of an upper level
trough axis. In addition, another cold front slowly moves in from the
northeast during the daytime hours on Wednesday. Low rain chances
begin Wednesday afternoon along the Rio Grande, then gradually spread
eastward and increase Thursday into early Friday as the above
mentioned upper trough moves into the region. As of now, it looks
like the highest rain chances will be Thursday afternoon into early
Friday as the main trough axis moves in. Am a little skeptical of
model QPF output this far out, but given the drought status, any rain
will be welcomed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

South to southeasterly wind will continue to decrease with clear
skies through very early Saturday morning. Around 09-12Z low
ceilings will build over the I-35 corridor, Hill Country and
southern Edwards Plateau. Areas of fog may also develop near SAT/SSF
around this time but confidence is lower for visibility. Ceilings
will be low, likely teetering near the IFR/LIFR threshold over
SAT/SSF with mainly MVFR conditions at AUS. MVFR ceilings arrive
slightly later at DRT. All sites return to VFR conditions Saturday
afternoon. Southerly wind increases again late morning with gusty
wind into the early evening in the west with continued gusty wind
through late Saturday night in the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              55  84  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  51  84  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  85  62  87 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            53  83  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  89  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        53  84  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             51  86  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        52  84  61  86 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   53  83  64  85 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       55  85  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           55  86  63  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27