488
FXUS64 KEPZ 212036
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
236 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

 - Warming temperatures and continued very low humidity through
   the early next week.

 - Becoming breezier on Saturday, with fire weather concerns
   especially in the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains.

 - Moisture may work into parts of West Texas Wednesday and
   Thursday, with possible spotty showers. A crack or two of
   thunder is not out of the question on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Satellite this afternoon shows just a few high clouds drifting
mainly over northern portions of the CWA this afternoon. Little
change made from the previous forecast package. An analysis of
deterministic model guidance shows the Borderlands mainly under
the influence of westerly flow through the rest of Friday. By
tonight into Saturday, weak troughing will setup over the
Borderland will help to enhance westerly flow will aid in inducing
modest lee side cyclogenesis over portions of far southeast
Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles on Saturday. The
combination of deep mixing and a tightening pressure gradient
will lead to breezy westerly flow over the Borderland by Saturday
afternoon. Due to the breezy west winds, some very patchy dust
from localized dust sources are possible over portions of southern
New Mexico, but impacts will be minimal. On Sunday, a broad upper
ridge begins to expand across the Desert Southwest through Tuesday
allowing for temperatures to soar well into the 80s or around 10
to 13 degrees above normal for afternoon highs.

On Wednesday, a broad upper low will be working into the Baja of
California. An analysis of ensembles shows the low moving across
northern Mexico as a open wave. The ensembles largely agree with
the deterministic GFS, with the ECMWF bring a cut off low across
the Baja peninsula before opening up into an open trough. Ahead
of the open trough,low level east to southeast flow will set up
over portions of far west Texas and far eastern New Mexico
Wednesday night into Thursday. Models show some modest instability
as well with LI values of -1 to -3 over portions of Hudspeth and
El Paso counties due to cooler air aloft drifts over the area in a
fairly weak forcing environment. Shower cover will be isolated to
scattered in nature with a crack or two of thunder not entirely
out of the question.



.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Skies will be
clear at terminals through the TAF period, though a few high
clouds(FEW250) may develop during the afternoon hours. Winds will
be light and generally S/SW through the period AOB 10 kts or
less. A few afternoon breezes up to 20 kts generally out of the
S/SW are not out of the question this afternoon after 20z until
sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Very low RH values will prevail through early next week with
single digit common over the values up to the lower teens in
mountain areas. Winds will remain light with the exception of
Saturday. By Saturday, a modest strengthening of westerly flow
will induce lee side cyclogenesis over far southeast Colorado
into the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles sending to breezy conditions
over the area. A Red Flag Warning will go in effect from Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening due to low RH and gust winds will
lead to increasing fire danger over portions of Capitan and
Sacramento mountains. By Wednesday, low level east to southeast
flow will bring moisture up into far west Texas and portions of
southern New Mexico bringing isolated to scattered showers into
the lowlands Wednesday into Thursday. Models do show some modest
instability especially over portions of Hudspeth and El Paso
counties and this could spread into some of the lowlands of
southern New Mexico. At this time, lightning potential looks low
on Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  46  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            43  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               39  79  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               40  79  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               35  56  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    40  80  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              40  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   38  80  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                37  77  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       47  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                36  81  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             41  84  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               45  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   42  82  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             40  79  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           51  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            38  80  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    37  83  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 43  81  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                40  78  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  39  69  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                36  67  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 34  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  31  72  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                40  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                35  80  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  70  38  70 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   36  73  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    33  77  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               38  72  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  41  73  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   37  80  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  36  78  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           41  79  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  73  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly