151
FXUS63 KEAX 212310
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds and dry conditions continue through the afternoon.
Burning is highly discouraged. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
until 7PM this evening.

- Intermittent wind gusts between 45-50 MPH continue for the next
couple hours. Gusts around 30-40 MPH continue until sunset.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night into early Sunday.
A few strong to severe storms are possible starting around 3-5 AM
Sunday morning. Primary hazards include large hail and high winds.

- Quieter pattern anticipated for the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A dry cold front is working its way through the region this
afternoon. The most notable aspect of this frontal passage is the
somewhat abrupt turning of the winds from southwest to northwest.
Warm air advection from southwest winds ahead of the front have
pushed temperatures into low 60s as the front approaches. This is in
part thanks to being centered on the 850mb axis of southerly flow.
Diurnal heating has mixed this faster moving flow downward to the
surface resulting in widespread wind gusts around 30-40 mph. Earlier
in the day, gusts reached 50 mph as the core of the 850mb flow
matched up with the pressure gradient just ahead of the front.
Moisture flow into the region has not been able to keep up with the
push of warm air bottoming relative humidity values around 20-30
percent this afternoon. Combining these dry conditions with the
winds creates elevated fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning
has been issued for this afternoon until 7pm. Burning is
highly discouraged.

Ridging across the region Saturday pushes even more dry air into
eastern KS and western MO. While warm air advection out of the south
continues, a developing leeward trough across the OK panhandle
curtails the flow of moisture as frontogenesis develops along the
i_40 corridor. This impedance of moisture flow once again causes
relative humidity values tomorrow afternoon to dip below 20 percent
as suggested by the low end of the ensemble spread. Median guidances
settles humidity values around 20-30 percent; still low enough for
some fire weather conditions. Fortunately, winds during the day
Saturday look to be far less than what we have been seeing the past
few days. Winds start out light and variable before becoming
southerly Saturday morning. The primary flow axis looks to set up
across central KS giving our area a break from the blustery
conditions.

Saturday night into Sunday brings the next chances for showers and
storms. A dueling low pressure setup ensues as a multilayer upper
level trough traverses the center of the CONUS. A deeper northern
low moves across the upper Midwest (and serves as the primary
conveyor for the WAA mentioned previously); meanwhile, another
leeward low forms off a 500mb shortwave across central OK. This low
is expected to be weaker; however cyclogenesis and mesoscale
frontogenesis combined with midlevel convergence across west central
MO will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. Model vertical profiles show a
favorable environment for high based thunderstorms with MUCAPE
values above 1000 and lapse rates greater than 8C/km. This creates a
potential for large hail and gusty winds. CAMs are timing storms
starting around 2AM Sunday moving out of the area near sunrise.
Strong to severe storms look more favored during initiation with the
threat decreasing as the night continues.

As the work week begins, the northern low which passed by Sunday,
stalls over eastern Canada. This establishes a 500mb NW flow regime
which keeps the weather calmer through much of the work week. A few
embedded shortwaves may bring around some passing rain chances to
NE MO. Long range guidance points toward the NW flow regime exiting
late next week. Multiple waves look to bring more substantial rain
chances next weekend before the pattern looks to shift toward a
large scale ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Replacing earlier SW winds, NW gusty winds have swept across the
TAF sites early this evening with the passage of a cool/cold
front. Wind gusts into the mid-upper 20s kts may continue
through 01z or so, before easing behind the front and with
surface inversion settling in. Light/variable winds by around
06z and carrying to around 12z-15z before prevailing southerly
winds return. May see occasional gusts to around 20kts by Sat
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ017-
     021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Curtis