168
FXUS63 KDDC 162217
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
417 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue today, with highs in the
  70s.

- Very strong southwesterly winds daytime Tuesday, sustained in
  the 25-40 mph range gusting to 60+.

- Strong cold front early Thursday will knock temperatures much
  closer to normal, but no high confidence precipitation
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal weak longwave ridging is in place over the
central CONUS, supporting nearly zonal flow across the central
Rockies and plains. At the surface, southwest KS resides in a
largely nebulous pressure field, resulting in light and variable
winds that will persist through the day. Given mostly sunny
skies and subsidence aloft, afternoon temperatures will be well
above normal with highs in the 70s.

Tonight into tomorrow morning, short range ensembles agree a
longwave trough and an attendant 250-mb jet streak will move
quickly across the western CONUS, and begin to impinge on the
High Plains by 12Z Tuesday. Rapid cyclogenesis will occur in
response across the northern plains, causing the surface
pressure gradient to tighten considerably over southwest KS.
The end product will be very strong southwesterly winds
throughout the central plains daytime Tuesday, particularly for
areas along and west of US-283, with winds sustained in the
25-40 mph range gusting to 60+ mph. Therefore, all counties
within the High Wind Watch (from Ness to Clark and west) have
been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. Southwest winds will begin
to weaken after sunset with the loss of boundary layer mixing,
dropping to 10-15 mph by the overnight period. Otherwise, the
strong downsloping winds will offset mostly cloudy skies,
yielding another day of afternoon highs in the 70s.

Wednesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
agree the broad longwave trough will continue eastward and
become entrenched over the CONUS through at least the weekend. A
potent shortwave trough will eject onto the central plains early
Thursday morning, sending a strong cold front equatorward and
knocking temperatures from the 60s/70s on Wednesday much closer
to normal in the upper 40s/low 50s Thursday through the end of
the week. A couple opportunities for precipitation do exist
Thursday night and Friday night favoring our northern zones as
NBM probability of QPF greater than 0.01" rise into the 30-50%
range, however confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 413 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. It should be noted that the air quality
model is forecasting dust for tomorrow. Have gone with 6 sm miles
and BLDU. The winds will be very strong tomorrow and there is a chance
that visibilities could be even lower. Don`t have high confidence
though on exactly how low vis will get. Otherwise, winds are the
main concern for tomorrow. Very strong SW to W winds of 30-40 kt
with gusts 50+ kt likely. A strong LLJ will promote LLWS through the
overnight period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
MST/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Tuesday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Sugden