170
FXUS63 KDDC 220114
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
814 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near Critical Fire Risk will exist Saturday afternoon west of
  highway 83. Elevated fire conditions can be expected further
  east.

- Cold front Saturday night will bring breezy northwest winds on
Sunday

- Warm and dry in the long term through the middle of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Fire risk potential is being closely monitored for Saturday.
Current forecasts remain unchanged for overnight and Saturday,
but near critical fire conditions are expected west of Highway
83 Saturday afternoon.

Short term models this evening remain in good agreement with
each other and previous runs in moving a surface high across
western Kansas overnight as surface pressures fall along the lee
of the Rockies. South winds will strengthen Saturday morning,
with an over 80% chance of gusts exceeding 25 mph being possible
ahead of a surface boundary that will be moving from eastern
Colorado into extreme southwest Kansas by early afternoon.
Strongest gusts are expected east of Highway 83 Saturday
afternoon, while winds will diminish west of Highway 83.
Ensembles show a less than 40% chance of gusts exceeding 25 mph
west of Highway 83, where afternoon humidity will drop to
10-15%. Therefore, red flag warning criteria are not currently
anticipated. However, conditions will be close to red flag
criteria and as a result any outdoor burning and any spark
producing activities are strongly discouraged. We will continue
to monitor closely, and a red flag warning will be issued if
needed. For those interested in wind speeds east of highway 83
Saturday afternoon...there is a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to
be >35 mph at times from the HREF and latest NBM guidance. This
combined with humidity values around 20 percent will result in
elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

19z upper air analysis shows a departing longwave trough in the
central and northern plains with a building dampened ridge in the
western CONUS.  At the surface a cold front went through earlier
this morning and breezy northwest winds in the boundary layer
continue through much of western Kansas bringing in slightly cooler
air.

Tonight a developing ridge in Colorado and Wyoming will lead to a
surface high pressure in eastern Colorado and western Kansas.  This
should allow winds to diminish and mainly clear skies.  Saturday as
the high moves east and a shortwave trough in the mid level
will develop a lee side trough and surface low in eastern
Colorado through the day. Winds as a result should increase out
of the south to southwest sustained at around 20-25 mph and
gusting to around 35 mph. We should see the boundary layer mix
out through the late morning and with decreasing clouds by
afternoon the relative humidity values should fall to around 15%
south and west of Dodge City. These areas, which didn`t get
much snow from the last storm, will see an enhanced fire risk
during the afternoon and could near red flag criteria mainly
from Syracuse to Liberal on west. Saturday night a longwave
trough in the northern plains will bring a cold front through
western Kansas and winds will once again switch back to the
northwest and become breezy through the day on Sunday. As the
cold front passes along the I-70 corridor a few short term
models show light rain development...however NBM probabilities
of anything >0.01 inch are low at 5-10% so I opted to keep
chances of precipitation out of the forecast. With the colder
air temperatures on Sunday should be in the 60s which is 10-15
degrees cooler than the highs in the 70s on Saturday.

Long range ensemble upper air pattern early next week shows a large
ridge over the central CONUS and warmer air and this pattern should
keep us dry with temperatures warming through the course of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

At 22Z today...Gusty northwest winds were observed across
southwest Kansas. These gusty winds were occurring behind a
cold front which extended from northern Missouri through eastern
Kansas and into central Oklahoma. An area of high pressure at
the surface was located over eastern Colorado. This area of high
pressure will move eastward across western Kansas overnight.
This will cause the northwest winds to diminish to below 10
knots and shift to the south overnight. By 18Z Saturday the
southerly winds will increase to 20-25 knots as surface
pressures fall along the leeward side of the Rockies and
stronger winds mix down from the boundary layer. VFR conditions
are anticipated for the next 24 hours, though ceilings
(5000-10000 feet AGL) are possible between 06 and 15Z Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert