954
FXUS61 KCTP 270523
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
123 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Chilly tonight with diminishing wind and clearing skies.
*Fair and milder on Thursday and Friday.
*Weekend turns warmer, but with showers Friday night and again
 on Sunday.
*More widespread rainfall is possible early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
An unseasonably deep upper trough low moving across Northern
New England this evening will be replaced by NW flow and subtle
ridging aloft moving SE from the Upper Glakes on Thursday.
Approx 1026 mb sfc high will be moving from Western PA to
eastern VA tonight/Thursday morning.

Our widespread strato cu deck of earlier today will gradually
break up through early tonight with skies becoming mainly clear
after midnight. The still moderately gusty NW breeze early this
evening will decrease to under 6 kts for late tonight through
the mid morning hours Thursday.

Min temps in the 20-30F range will be below climo and have
downside risk into the upper teens particularly across western
and central PA beneath the sfc ridge axis/weakest pressure
gradient. It will likely be one of the coldest nights that we`ll
see until Fall.

Thursday will be milder, beginning a warming trend that lasts
into this weekend. Tightening LLVL pressure gradient across the
Commonwealth will help to increase the return, westerly flow
around high pressure drifting SE and off the Carolina Coast.

This will advect more pleasant temps our way from the Ohio
Valley, with no precip expected on Thursday with abundant
sunshine into the mid to late afternoon. Highs Thu afternoon
will range from 45-55F, which is just about average for this
time of the year.

The airmass over PA on Thursday will be bone dry with PWAT
values only between 0.1 and 0.2 of an inch leading to afternoon
min RH values mainly the low to mid 20s across the SE half of
our CWA and upper 20s to low 30s across the Northern and Western
Mtns.

The low RH, Westerly winds gusting into the upper teens to mid
20s (KTS) in the afternoon and drying fine fuels will lead to an
elevated threat for fire spread for the late morning and
afternoon hours on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Things get a bit more unsettled Thursday night into Friday as
baroclinic zone tightens over the region. Light showers may
brush the northern tier Thu night as a shortwave pivots eastward
from the GLAKS into northern New England. Front sags along the
the PA/NY border by 12Z Friday while WAA ensues surging through
the Ohio Valley. As a result, rain showers are most likely
across the western zones Friday as a warm front lifts to the
northeast. Still cannot rule out a period of showers elsewhere
as this moderation occurs, but model trends indicate that the
baroclinic zone will remain along or north of the NY/PA border
by late Friday and Saturday, bringing a warm and mainly dry day
Saturday, followed by a better chance of showers Sunday. As long
as the cold front stays to the north, we should have no problem
achieving a steady warmup into the end of the week. Highs on
Friday get back to near/above normal in the 50-60F range with
Friday night looking very mild with min temp departures +15 to
+20F above the historical avg.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The EC solutions were the warm solutions several days ago. The
GFS coming around to this side of the solution the last few
days.

Always tricky in the spring that backdoor frontal boundaries
can slip to the south and west. For now will keep fcst on the
warm side of things, similar to what earlier shifts had.

Main change is forecast builder slows front down on Monday.
Thus slower to get back in the colder air. Also increased
chance of showers and storms lingering into the late day
time frame.

Cooling off after Monday again, as old man winter is not quite
done yet, more information below with the earlier discussion.

Earlier discussion.

Very warm temperatures are fcst this weekend prevailing in the
warm sector ahead of a wavy frontal system evolving over the
Plains and then pushing eastward. Fcst highs Sat-Sun are in the
65-75F range or +15-25F above normal; low temps Sat night-AM
Sunday appear even more anomalous at +20-25F above climo in the
50-60F range.

Medium range model consensus favors Sunday and Monday with the
highest rain probs; some meaningful amounts are possible given
influx of high moisture content air and potential for convective
elements. A sharp frontal passage on Monday appears to bring an
end to the warm spell sending March out on a cooling trend into
April Fool`s Day.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions under mainly clear skies continue across all of
Central PA through Thursday afternoon. Light winds are expected
through the rest of the night, but gusts of 15 to 20 knots will
develop during the morning. A moisture-starved disturbance
tracking near the region during the evening bring mid and high
clouds with it, but all sites are expected to remain VFR.

Outlook...

Fri-Sun...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns.

Mon...Potential for more widespread showers with cold front.
Also a chance of a thunderstorm.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco