200
FXUS61 KCTP 100739
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
339 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid with near to above normal
  temperatures into mid July
* Daily doses of drenching thunderstorm downpours capable of
  producing isolated wind damage today (Thursday) and Friday
* Episodes of rain continue this weekend into early next week
  with the strongest wet signals on Sunday and Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z MRMS continues to show rain showers lingering along and to
the east of I-81. Elsewhere, rain-free conditions should prevail
for the remainder of the morning. Partial clearing, calm wind,
and abundant low level moisture will support fog formation which
may be dense in spots particularly across the northwest 3/4 of
CPA.

For the most part, the forecast remains on repeat with another
seasonably warm and humid day ahead with a mix of sun/clouds
and diurnal isolated to scattered thunderstorm downpours. The
heavy rain/flash flood signal backs off with level 1 excessive
rain risk confined only to the Lower Susquehanna Valley where
recent rounds of heavy rainfall (2-3+ inches in the past 72hr)
have significantly lowered FFG values.

Near the southern periphery of the mid-level troughing shifting
east northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, models indicate
that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak
afternoon heating. Ongoing moderate CAPE/weakly sheared enviro
may become conducive for an isolated damaging wind gusts in the
strongest cores, before convective activity weakens/dissipates
later this evening after sunset.

Max temps this afternoon will generally be in the 80-85F range
with lows 60-70F. Mainly clear to partly cloudy with areas of
fog expected again late tonight through the predawn early Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Despite the absence of a pronounced focusing/triggering
mechanism for CI, diurnal heating of a seasonably warm, moist
and weakly capped airmass will result in more isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms Friday into the weekend.
Although precipitable water values look to trend lower vs.
previous days, there will still be at least a marginal risk for
a few water-loaded downbursts and localized heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wet signal strength likely peaks Sunday into Monday which
appears tied to a frontal system progressing eastward from the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through CPA. There is increasing
confidence in a 48hr or two-day break in the rainy summer
pattern next Tuesday and Wednesday. This "dry" signal is
reflected in the latest medium range models and ensemble
guidance which shows sfc high pressure/upper level ridge moving
into the area in the wake of the aforementioned frontal system.
Temperatures will remain firmly in summer mode trending near to
above (+5-10F) the historical average moving into 2H of July.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The threat for CB/TSRA has waned across the central PA airspace
this evening, but SHRA remain from MDT to LNS. VFR conditions
expected this evening for most of central PA, but continued rain
will likely lead to widespread MVFR visibilities closer to LNS.

The forecast for tonight gets a bit more complicated in terms of
ceilings and visibilities. High clouds should limit the
potential for radiation fog tonight, but moisture pooling as a
result of recent rains could still lead to some fog/low ceiling
potential.

At this point, the best chance for radiation fog will be BFD and
JST where at least some clearing may build in before daybreak.
Have indicated at least a period of MVFR restrictions at all
airfields tonight, but confidence remains fairly low in the
extent and duration of such impacts. The highest probability of
IFR (or perhaps lower) visibilities will be at LNS.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions possible in scattered PM storms.

Fri-Sat...Scattered afternoon/evening storms, mainly south.

Sun...More widespread showers/storms likely.

Mon...Still storms around.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Guseman/Banghoff