410
FXUS61 KCLE 220154
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
954 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops southeast across the area Saturday morning.
After brief high pressure Saturday night, low pressure tracks
into the northern Great Lakes on Sunday with an accompanying
cold front crossing the local area Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
930 pm update...
As we mentioned in the previous quick forecast check up earlier
this evening, we would take another look at the POPs for the
rest of Saturday morning through tomorrow evening. We also took
a look at the new 00z HRRR that just came in through Saturday
afternoon. The hourly POPs were lowered downward overall from
what was previous advertised as well as shorten up a little as
in length of time with a quicker decrease during the midday. We
have most of the POPs and precip chances ended by early to mid
afternoon. over the Snowbelt areas. But we are still thinking
there will be quick couple hours between 12z and 18z where we
could see some "bursty" rain showers, mixing with some graupel
or wet snow as the colder air rushes, especially aloft during
the late morning hours. We are not expecting the lake effect to
do much of anything as the 850 mb temps will be warmer than -10C
and that we will be a very short time window as well.

730 pm update...
For this early evening update, we made a few minor adjustments
to the hourly POPs from the 06z through 12z timeframe late
tonight into early Saturday morning. The previous POPs were a
touch aggressive and we adjusted them slightly lowers into the
slight to chance range (20% to 50%). Regarding the POPs after
12z through midday Saturday, we want to wait and get a quick
look at the latest 00z runs of the HRRR and 4km WRF in the next
hour or so before we make any other adjustments if needed later
for that timeframe. But some guidance 18z guidance was
indicating that the POPs we have after 12z may also be a little
aggressive. Again, we will have those updated if needed by 0130z
or 930 pm EDT here shortly. Otherwise, the rest of the near
term forecast through tomorrow night looks on track at this
time.

Previous discussion..
Water vapor imagery reveals a complex trough digging over the
central U.S., with one shortwave/vort max currently over eastern
NE and pushing east into IA. Another shortwave (with a strong
accompanying cold front and airmass change) is dropping
southeast into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. These
features will bring a brief period of unsettled weather on
Saturday, followed by another quick hit of seasonably chilly air
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.


Clouds will gradually thicken and lower overnight tonight, with
brisk southwest winds struggling to decouple and helping to keep
temperatures much milder than last night. Have lows ranging from
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Both of the aforementioned shortwaves and strong cold front will
work across the area rather quickly Saturday morning, with high
pressure quickly building in from the west late Saturday into
Saturday night. There will be a few things to focus on for
precip potential/POPs late tonight through Saturday afternoon.
An initial wave of mid-level warm air advection/isentropic lift
will lift east-northeast across our area after midnight. Dry
low-levels and the rather weak nature of the lift makes it very
questionable if any measurable rain accompanies this feature
between about 12 AM and 5 AM tonight. There will be another push
of better lift (with more saturated low-levels) from west to
east after 4 or 5 AM with the lead shortwave coming east out of
the central U.S., with greater potential for scattered showers.
This will be quickly followed by the shortwave and strong cold
front dropping southeast out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
after roughly 8 AM, with numerous to widespread showers likely
to accompany this feature, particularly from Sandusky-Mount
Gilead points east. Synoptic lift quickly exits to the east-
southeast Saturday afternoon, though lingering low-level
cyclonic flow and 850mb temperatures cratering to -10 to -13C
over Lake Erie could allow some lake enhanced precip to continue
through early Saturday evening before ridging and much drier
air really start pressing in. Dry weather and clearing skies are
then expected for the rest of Saturday night.

The forcing and moisture align best across Northeast OH and
Northwest PA on Saturday, with much lower confidence in precip
out west towards the I-75 corridor. Have categorical (80-100%)
POPs in from Lorain-Wooster points east, with likely (60-70%)
POPs as far west as Sandusky-Mt Gilead, dropping off to 30%
along I-75. QPF amounts are under 0.25" (and for a large
majority under 0.10"), highest across the higher terrain of
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Precip will initially fall in the
form of rain, though strong cold air advection will allow it to
mix with/change to a bit of snow before ending across parts of
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Not looking for more than a
slushy coating on non-paved surface at most. Mid-level lapse
rates steepen to around 8C/km Saturday morning as a -30C 500mb
cold pool moves overhead, which could allow for a little bit of
upright instability to develop. This could allow some showers
(especially along the cold front) to have a bit of a convective
component Saturday morning, perhaps producing a bit of graupel
or very small hail. Did not add thunder to the forecast, but a
stray rumble wouldn`t be the most shocking thing ever along or
just ahead of the cold front from extreme eastern OH into PA. A
brief push of wind gusts over 30 MPH is likely just behind the
cold front Saturday morning and early afternoon.

Morning highs on Saturday should reach the low to mid 40s, with
very strong cold air advection causing falling temperatures late
in the morning through the afternoon. Lows Saturday night should
get well into the 20s for much of the area, with a few 10s even
possible in the higher terrain east of I-79 in Northwest PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The next low pressure system with a digging upper low into the Great
Lakes arrives Sunday, looking more and more like it will have a warm
front and a very brief residence time in a  modest warm sector prior
to cold frontal passage. POPs reintroduced after 15Z over the far
southwestern zones over the CWA. Showers at first but in the far
eastern zones possibly a rain/snow mix at the onset, temperatures a
touch warmer Sunday than Saturday back towards the 50F mark in some
places, and then the trailing cold front tracks through 00Z Monday
into early Monday night. This will be another system making an
expeditious exit, but the trailing upper low through the Great Lakes
region will sling low level moisture back into the CWA from the
north with rain showers late Monday and transitioning to rain/snow
showers early Monday night. No accumulation expected, but
temperatures down to around freezing or just below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep 500mb trough now over the Great Lakes region. 700mb trough axis
tracks down into the Ohio Valley with weak cyclogenesis along with
the tail end of another weak cold front moving into Lake Erie from
the north. Bulk of the POPs from the feature to the south should
remain south of our CWA border, and not much moisture to work with
or low level f-gen from the cold front, so the slight chance POPs
are not expected to produce much Tuesday into Tuesday night if
anything at all. Chilly high pressure for the middle to the end of
the week before a Friday warm front arrives with perhaps some
warming into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The main message for potential weather impacts to aviation for
this TAF update will be a couple items to be aware of. Gusty
winds will increase tonight and tomorrow with a fast moving cold
front. There may some non-convective low level winds this
evening through the predawn hours of Saturday morning. The
potential of that non-thunderstorm LLWS is relatively marginal
and would generally be from 02z to 10z tonight due to a
strengthening low level jet and wind Field from this vigorous,
fast moving weather system.

VFR conditions are being observed across the region this evening
and will continue through most of the overnight. High and mid
level clouds are increasing and will slowly lower as the night
goes along. MVFR ceilings will eventually arrive for NWOH before
12z. The MVFR ceilings will continue to move in from west to
east across the rest of NEOH and NWPA around 12z or shortly
after as a fast moving cold front sweeps through northern Ohio
and NWPA. The MVFR ceilings will be around after daybreak Saturday
morning through midday with a gradual improvement to VFR
ceilings above 3000 feet by 18z for much of the area. MVFR may
lingering a little longer into the mid afternoon around the
Snowbelt areas of NEOH and NWPA through the mid afternoon or 21z
before the lake effect stratus deck starts to scattered out
during the late afternoon and towards the end of this TAF
period. Winds will start out from the south to southwesterly
tonight 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots overnight.
Winds will become westerly and northwesterly behind the cold
front early Saturday morning and continue through the end of the
period. Winds will remain 12 to 18 knots with gusts 25 to 30
knots likely during the day on Saturday. The winds will decrease
at the end of this 24 hours TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in widespread rain late Sunday into
Monday. Non-VFR is possible in lingering rain and/or snow
showers Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase to 15-25kts tonight, turning northwesterly
as a cold front comes through 15-25kts and a Small Craft Advisory
now in effect for much of Saturday.  Winds become variable Saturday
night, then southeasterly 10-15kts Sunday with another cold front
coming through  Sunday night. Wave heights less than 2ft early
Sunday will increase away from shore Sunday afternoon, then approach
Small Craft Advisory again Sunday night in the wake of the next cold
front with wave heights back to 3-5ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...77/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...77
MARINE...26