843
FXUS62 KCHS 270400
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1200 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through Saturday. A cold front will
move through on Monday, followed by high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The boundary layer has decoupled just about everywhere with calm
to light/variable winds being reported. Some recoupling could
occur across mainly the coastal counties late as a northeast
wind surge builds south down the coast. Lows were nudged up a
bit in some locations based on this expected recoupling which
will influence the strong radiational cooling that is ongoing.
No other changes were made for the midnight update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry surface high pressure will shift nearly overhead and off
the Northern Carolina coast Thursday and settle over the western
Atlantic Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will
build as the upper axis shifts across the Southeastern U.S. and
into the Western Atlantic. Dry conditions and mostly sunny skies
will start off the period Thursday with a few clouds moving in
Friday. By Saturday, increasing Gulf moisture ahead of a
shortwave (PWats nearing 1 inch) will result in mostly cloudy
conditions. Otherwise, no rain is forecast during the short term
period. Deep southerly flow and slight warm air advection will
result in above normal temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper
70s Thursday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and
potentially again Saturday. Areas along the immediate coast will
top out around 5-10 degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A shortwave lifting from the northern Gulf coast across the
Southeast U.S. could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to the area Sunday. Then a cold front will approach Monday,
bringing another round of showers/thunderstorms. The severe
threat will require continued monitoring, but early indications
are for modest shear and instability Monday, with at least a low
end severe weather threat possible. Temperatures will remain
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 28/06z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible
late this weekend within showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Surface high pressure will build toward the Mid
Atlantic coast through tonight. Winds across the coastal waters
will initially weaken this evening. However, a tightening
pressure gradient will again bring increasing northeast winds
after midnight with gusts 15 to 20 knots by Thursday morning.
Seas will run 1-3 ft, greatest across the outer Georgia waters.

Thursday through Sunday: High pressure will shift over the
Western Atlantic Thursday into Friday and prevail through the
period. No marine concerns are expected through Saturday.
However, strengthening southerly flow Saturday night and Sunday
will result in marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions over the
offshore GA waters, mainly due to 6 ft seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critically low RH values are forecast again Thursday for areas
away from the coast, with min values as low as 18-25%. However,
light winds around 5-6 kt or less will remain throughout the
day. Thus, we opted not to issue a Fire Danger Statement for
Thursday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains offline for dome maintenance through
April 1, 2025. Radar data will not be available during this
time. Users are urged to use adjacent WSR-88D sites which also
cover much of Southeast South Carolina, Southeast Georgia and
the adjacent coastal waters. These include:

KCAE - Columbia, SC
KLTX - Wilmington, NC
KJAX - Jacksonville, FL
KVAX - Moody AFB, GA
KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$