839
FXUS62 KCAE 262339
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
739 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions expected through much of the week. Near to above
normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the week
with possible returning fire weather concerns due to daily
critical RH values and dry fuels. Next chance for rainfall does
not appear until later in the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Increased Fire Danger

Winds have diminished across the area. A Burn Ban from the SC
Forestry Commission also remains in place across all of our
South Carolina counties until further notice. Tonight, surface
high pressure is forecast sink into the area. Clear skies and
light winds will allow temps to drop back down into the upper
30s and lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued mild and dry.

High pressure will settle over the area Thursday. Dry air mass
remains in place with relatively deep mixing which will lead to
another day with RH dropping to around 20%. Winds will remain light,
however, so fire weather will be a bit less of a concern. Some high
clouds move over Thursday night with lows in the upper 40s.

Friday, high pressure will shift offshore with upper ridging
strengthening over the area as warm advection and above average
heights lead to temperatures rising to well above average with
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Moisture return will
strengthen over the course of the day with increasing clouds,
although LREF mean indicates a high probability of PWATs
remaining less than an inch as high pressure continues to ridge
into the area. Clouds will continue to keep temperatures mild
overnight Friday with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Next system approaches by the end of the weekend into next
  week with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

Deeper southwest flow will develop as a robust shortwave approaches
from the west Saturday. Moisture will continue to increase across
the area, although forcing remains to the west through the course of
the day. Blended guidance shows little spread for highs Saturday
with high confidence of temperatures rising into the upper 70s to
low 80s. As the shortwave moves through Sunday, expect widespread
rain showers with NAEFS mean indicating PWATs will be above the 90th
percentile. The shortwave will move quickly through the area,
however, limiting total rainfall amounts. Uncertainty as to the
exact timing which will determine the thunderstorm potential but at
this point ensemble members at least indicate there is potential.
Monday surface low pressure moving across the Great Lakes with a
cold front approaching the forecast area. Ensemble members indicate
relatively high probability of moderate surface based
destabilization ahead of it with increasing potential for sufficient
deep layer shear to support at least somewhat organized
thunderstorms. A bit of a question as to the strength of the forcing
at this point but SPC continues to highlight the area in a slight
risk for Day 6, indicating the potential for severe storms Monday
afternoon. Drier air expected behind this front into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period.

High pressure starts moving over the area tonight, which should
allow for mainly clear skies and light to calm winds through
about 15z. Winds become northeast to east for a few hours, but
remain relatively light, generally less than 10 kts, through the
period. There is a small chance that AGS does see some fog near
daybreak, but confidence and impacts remain too low to include
in the TAF at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely
outside of patchy river fog each morning through Saturday
morning. The next chance of restrictions and rainfall will be
late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The South Carolina Forestry Commission has issued a statewide
burn ban until further notice.

Elevated fire concerns possible through much of the week, with
afternoon humidities mainly between 20 and 25 percent. Most
concerning fire danger conditions will continue today with
breezy winds and gusts around 20 mph possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$