Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
184
FXUS65 KBYZ 190929
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
329 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wet surfaces may freeze overnight and create slick
roads/sidewalks. Use caution early this morning.
- Periods of breezy to strong winds through the weekend,
especially Thursday and Saturday.
- Multiple periods of mountain snow through the weekend. Light
rain and snow showers possible elsewhere.
- Warmer than normal temperatures return next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday Night
The low stratus that is over eastern Montana early this morning
will lift after sunrise as dry, westerly winds develop. This will
lead to a seasonal day under mostly clear to clear skies with
temperatures warming into the 40s to lower 50s. As far as winds
go, expect most locations to see gusts in the teens to 20s (mph)
out of the west today. Over the foothills west of Billings (areas
around Livingston, Big Timber, and Harlowton), expected the
westerly winds to be a bit stronger with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
By late tonight into Thursday morning, a favorable surface
pressure gradient is expected to develop over Livingston. This,
combined with increasing mid-level flow ahead of our next weather
system, will likely lead to strong gap winds for the Livingston to
Nye area tonight into Thursday morning. At this time, the chance
of seeing a 50 mph or greater wind gust in these areas is 90
percent, and the chance of seeing a 60 mph or greater wind gust is
65 percent. For a 70 mph wind gust, the chance remains low.
During the day Thursday, a Pacific cold front is expected to push
through the region, ending the strong gap wind threat around
Livingston to Nye. This frontal passage will bring windy mix-down
conditions and the chance of precipitation back across the area.
At this time, the chance of precipitation remains relatively low
over the lower elevations (15 to 50 percent chance) with breezy to
strong downslope northwesterly winds in place behind the front.
The best chance of precipitation actually comes Thursday night in
far eastern Montana as a secondary wave drops through that area.
The chance of precipitation is higher in the mountains with this
system, with generally 1 to 3 inches of snow possible in the
higher terrain. With all that said, the winds will be the main
story for Thursday. At this time, wind gusts in the 20s to 40s
(mph) look common during the afternoon and evening across the
region. Along the foothills west of Billings, around Big Timber
and Harlowton, winds into the 50s (mph) look likely (70 to 80
percent chance). The chance of seeing a 60 mph gust is lower in
these areas though (50-55 percent) due to uncertainty in the
strength of the winds aloft and impacts from cloud cover reducing
mixing. This time period is one to watch for potential wind
highlights. Arends
Friday through Tuesday...
An unsettled and active pattern will continue into the weekend.
Friday should be mostly dry with some ridging behind Thursdays
short wave. Models then suggest a clipper type system will track
NW-SE over the region Saturday bringing a chance of scattered
rain/snow showers. Several inches of snowfall (4-8 inches) are
possible over the high country with this system, while the lower
elevations remains just melting wet snow or rain showers, with
little if any snowfall accumulation currently expected.
Sunday into early next week...Cluster analysis indicates
significant confidence in a strong ridge of high pressure
developing across the west coast. This places our region under
an unstable NW flow. Pacific moisture riding over the ridge may
bring scattered rain showers to our area by Sunday night and
Monday, with snow showers over the high country. Details are hard
to pin down under the unstable March air mass, but significant
precipitation does not appear very likely at this time, but more
blustery/shower type activity with some bands of showers
developing.
Temps will be in the 40s to mid 50s Friday through Sunday, warming
into the 50s to lower 60s by Monday. Overnight lows will be in the
20s to 30s this weekend...30s to lower 40s early next week.
Looking ahead...The models suggest the upper ridge may slowly
slide over the Rockies by the middle part of next week. This could
lead to temps well above normal. Currently...the probability of
reaching over 70 degrees is over 70% for the middle part of next
week in our central zones including Billings. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
Low ceilings (1000 to 4000ft) are occurring early this morning
over eastern Montana. With this, patchy fog is also possible in
eastern Montana this morning. With that said, confidence remains
low on the fog development over any TAF site. Expect the low
stratus, and any fog that does develop, to lift around 15z today
as winds increase out of the west. During the day today, expect
breezy westerly winds (around 30-35 knots) to persist along the
western foothills around KLVM, K6S0, and K3HT. While winds will
taper off a bit around K6S0 and K3HT this evening into tonight,
winds at KLVM are expected to increase out of the southwest with
gusts of 40 to 50 knots forecast by Thursday morning. Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048 032/051 032/054 036/052 033/054 043/063 043/068
0/U 02/R 10/N 27/W 21/B 22/W 11/B
LVM 045 029/043 027/048 033/043 026/047 038/054 039/062
0/N 04/S 11/N 48/J 22/W 32/W 11/B
HDN 046 023/053 030/054 032/054 030/054 039/063 041/068
0/U 02/R 20/U 17/W 31/B 22/W 21/B
MLS 048 027/056 033/052 033/053 030/051 037/061 040/062
0/B 01/N 31/B 14/W 21/B 21/E 10/B
4BQ 042 024/053 033/049 031/051 030/049 035/058 041/062
0/B 00/B 31/U 14/W 31/B 21/E 11/B
BHK 043 023/054 028/047 027/051 024/047 027/055 033/057
0/B 00/N 52/J 13/W 41/B 21/N 11/B
SHR 038 015/048 023/046 024/047 023/046 030/057 035/062
0/U 02/R 30/U 17/W 41/B 12/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings