104
FXUS65 KBYZ 031921
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- July 4th holiday will feature a 40-80% chance of showers and
  thunderstorms. Storms are not expected to be severe. Plan
  accordingly if planning to recreate outside.

- Scattered to numerous late day showers/thunderstorms on Saturday.
  A few storms could be strong to severe in southeastern MT.

- Warm and dry conditions return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday night...

Showers and thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will continue overnight
for locations east of Billings. Severe storms are not expected.
Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s F for locations
west of Billings and 60s F for locations east of Billings.

Upper level ridging will continue to move off to the east Friday.
Low pressure over the southwestern CONUS will bring monsoonal
moisture into Montana. This will create inverted V soundings with
elevated moisture. Wind shear will be somewhat limited with the
HREF indicating values of 20-30 kts. CAPE values are expected to
be around 500 J/kg. An upper level wave, strong low level lapse
rates, and a weak cold front will be enough to create convection
over the western high terrain around 18z Friday. A line of showers
and thunderstorms will move across the region through 06z
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.

Active weather over the fourth of July holiday will bring 40-80%
precipitation chances that could impact celebrations. Remain
weather aware if planning to recreate. Temperatures will be
significantly cooler Friday with mid 70s to low 80s F expected
leading to pleasant conditions for outdoor activities. Torgerson


Saturday through Wednesday...

Ensembles continue to show a shortwave trough moving through the
region on Saturday. This will bring the chance for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. The main energy from this shortwave
looks to move through Saturday afternoon. Bulk shear values of
30-50 knots along with PWATs greater than an inch for much of the
area. Sounding profiles show long, skinny CAPE with values of
500-1500 J/kg. Given these conditions, a few thunderstorms could
be strong to severe. Displayed storm motions are a bit too fast
for typical flash flood producing storms but this does not mean
that there is not a flooding threat. The main hazards with the
strongest storms will be heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds.

There remains uncertainty with the timing and coverage of storms,
with a key factor being the location of the 500mb jet and a
surface front. Lapse rates are steeper amongst models in the
southeast, where large hail would appear to be more favorable.
Continue to monitor the forecast going into the weekend.

Sunday into the new week, ensembles are in moderate to high
confidence that warmer and drier conditions are in store. High
temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 70s and
80s. Monday through Wednesday are currently forecast to have high
temperatures in the 80s and mid 90sF.

Matos
&&

.AVIATION...


Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will continue
overnight for locations from Billings east. These storms will have
the potential to bring winds near 45 kts. MVFR conditions may be
observed under one of these storms due to heavy rain. Torgerson
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/081 057/080 055/081 058/087 060/092 063/094 063/095
    35/T    65/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    10/U    11/U
LVM 053/076 049/076 047/081 050/087 052/090 055/093 056/093
    38/T    66/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 063/082 056/083 054/083 055/089 057/092 060/095 060/095
    45/T    55/T    41/U    11/U    11/U    10/U    11/U
MLS 068/084 061/082 056/081 058/088 061/091 063/095 063/095
    43/T    44/T    51/B    21/U    11/U    10/U    10/U
4BQ 065/079 060/082 057/079 059/087 061/089 063/092 063/092
    54/T    43/T    51/U    21/U    11/U    10/U    10/U
BHK 063/081 057/078 054/078 056/083 056/085 058/089 059/090
    43/T    43/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    10/U    11/U
SHR 058/078 052/082 051/081 052/087 054/090 057/091 057/091
    66/T    44/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings