979
FXUS61 KBTV 220233
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1033 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Skies continue to clear from west to east across the region
this afternoon. Brisk northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph
continue, locally up to 35 mph in easterly downslope regions. A
front crosses the region Saturday followed by dry weather
Sunday, and then snow lifting northeast on Monday. The overall
pattern will trend somewhat cooler with periodic showers as a
broad upper trough sets up over New England for much of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1029 PM EDT Friday...Under clear skies and calming winds,
temperatures are beginning to drop quickly across the forecast
area. Otherwise, the weather is very quiet this evening. Still
expecting a front to cross the area tomorrow, bringing increased
chances of precipitation from west to east. No major changes
with this update.

Previous discussion...Clearing skies and and overall drying
trend is expected for tonight into Saturday morning. Brisk
northwest winds with gusts 15-25 mph will continue into the
evening, and in south- central Vermont ramping up to 30-35 mph,
especially for easterly downslope areas. Winds will become
lighter overnight, and a pretty good radiational cooling set up
will be in place. Accordingly, temperatures will drop into the
20s areawide. Saturday will start out pretty nice with mostly
sunny conditions for the morning hours. Temperatures will warm
into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The Champlain Valley east will
dry into the 30 percent RH range, with increasing moisture
across northern New York during the day. By the afternoon, a
sharp cold front will track across northern New York and reach
Vermont late afternoon into the evening. Fairly strong
convergence and baroclinicity along the frontal axis should
produce scattered to numerous showers. Behind the front,
temperatures are expected to quickly plunge, with perhaps even a
changeover to snow while it is moving through. We will see
temperatures quickly go from upper 40s to mid 50s down into the
teens, which could result in some black ice before incoming
winds help dry pavement. Precipitation totals should remain less
than 2 tenths of an inch, and snowfall under 1 inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...Behind the cold front that pushes
through Saturday night, extremely dry and cool conditions will
move into the region as dry air filters in. Temperatures on
Sunday will struggle to warm, with daytime highs only climbing
into the 30s across the region. Dewpoint temperatures look to
drop into the single digits above and even below zero Sunday
afternoon given the abundance of dry air, with relative humidity
values dropping between 20 and 30 percent in the afternoon.
Given the extremely dry conditions expected, some fire weather
concerns and may be possible depending on how much precipitation
falls Saturday night. Winds during the day will generally be
northwesterly between 5 and 15 mph. Temperatures overnight
Sunday look to be seasonably cool, with lows in the teens to
lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...The active weather pattern continues
as we head into next week, with a surface warm front associated
with a low over the Great Lakes lifts into the region Monday
morning. A period of snowfall is expected as the front lifts
across, which will likely occur during the Monday morning
commute and make for some slick and snow-covered roads given
antecedent cold weather. Luckily temperatures will quickly warm,
with temperatures climbing above freezing through the morning
and snow transitioning to rain or a rain/snow mix in most
locations. A cold front will push through Monday afternoon and
evening, with colder air filtering in behind it, bringing
additional chances for snow, especially at the higher
elevations. Unsettled and cool weather is expected for much of
next week as a large upper level trough sits over the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...All sites will see continued SKC VFR skies
through the overnight period with generally light and variable
winds. Wind gusts are weakening across the region, and all sites
should see variable winds by 05Z. Between 04-11Z a weak low-
level jet around 2000 ft agl, will move into northern New York
which will bring pockets of LLWS to all sites with winds aloft
increasing up to 30 to 40 knots. LLWS will quickly weaken after
11Z with predominately light south/southwesterly winds area-
wide. By 18Z, winds will increase to near 10 knots with
occasional gusts 15-20 knots as a weak trough slides across the
region. Some rain showers are possible at most terminals beyond
20Z with a possible transition to SHRASN at MSS/SLK by 23Z.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SN, Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN, Likely RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Danzig