Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
826 FXUS64 KBRO 211057 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 557 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 A zonal flow aloft and southeasterly flow at the surface will continue to produce warm and dry weather through Saturday. Surface high pressure across the western Gulf this morning will slide eastward today. Gusty southeast winds will develop today and Saturday as the pressure gradient strengthens. The steady southeasterly flow will continue to advect moisture and warmer air into Deep South Texas resulting warming temperatures and increasing dewpoints through the first half of the weekend. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s, except for the 70s at the beaches. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the upper 50s across the northern ranchlands to the low 60s across the Rio Grande Valley. Saturday will be warm to very warm with highs in the 80s, except for 70s at the beaches. Finally, There is a Low Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the short term forecast period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 This portion of the forecast is trending more busy. First, isolated to scattered convection from east to west, respectively, within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday will be the result of the approach of a weak cold front. Second, a gradually increasing chance of more widespread convection will occur from Wednesday through Thursday courtesy of the slow eastward shift of closed 500 mb low pressure through west Texas. Beyond the end of the long term forecast period, model guidance suggests that the risk for showers and thunderstorms will persist through Friday as the aforementioned low completes its transition through the Lone Star State. Temperature-wise, with no significant cold front passages through the BRO CWFA, and a moderate to breezy onshore flow persisting, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are likely, but tempered to more near normal levels on Wednesday through Friday due to significant cloudiness and precipitation associated with the mid-level low pressure system. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Light east to southeast winds with some passing high clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions are expected to continue for the 24 hours. Light winds early this morning will increase and become gusty mid to late morning into the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 10 knots gusting to 14 knots with seas slightly over 2.6 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:30 CDT/6:30 UTC. Marine conditions will continue to improve today with high pressure in control. Light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected to prevail through the period. However, winds may be strong enough over the Laguna Madre to Support Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines. (Saturday Night through Thursday) Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure. The brief approach of a weak cold front on Monday will produce no significant change in marine conditions. Although Small Craft Advisory is not anticipated to be needed, periodic Small Craft Should Exercise Caution cannot be entirely ruled out. && .FIRE WEATHER... (Today) Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Relative humidity percentages are expected to remain low, between 28 to 45 percent, today and 35 to 55 percent on Saturday across Deep South Texas. Meanwhile, fuels remain cured to dry and critically dry within the region. However, since the 20-foot winds are forecast to remain light, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will not be issued at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 63 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 60 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 84 63 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 60 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 65 74 67 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 62 79 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...63-KC