455
FXUS61 KBGM 220133
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
933 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will diminish heading into the evening hours, with dry and
seasonable weather overnight. Rain showers return Saturday
afternoon, and could mix with some snow showers by evening or
overnight. Cooler but dry and mostly sunny weather expected for
Sunday before the next system brings a period of snow and rain
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
Under the clear skies, temperatures have fallen slightly more
than originally forecasted. Temperatures were dropped for most
of the overnight hours, especially east of I-81 where skies
will remain clear for most of the overnight hours. This did
the forecasted lows being decreased across most of the region as
well. Otherwise, the forecast is doing well and needed no
additional changes.

615 PM Update...
The previous forecast remains on track and no changes were
needed at this time.

330 PM Update...
Upper level ridge continues to build into the region this afternoon
with northwest flow shifting west. Temperatures have climbed into
the upper 30s to upper 40s across the area. Gusty winds are expected
to diminish within the next few hours as high pressure continues to
build into the area. Dry conditions allowed RH values to drop
into the 25-35% range this afternoon, but values are climbing
as we approach sunset. RH observations are currently at 30-40%.
An SPS remains over central NY for the elevated risk of
wildfire spread. The threat will gradually diminish  are winds
and RH will become unfavorable for fire weather. Overall a calm
night is in store with temperature in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

A shortwave trough approaches the region Saturday morning along with
a cold front. This will bring a quick round of scattered rain
showers to the region Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 40s to mid 50s
in the afternoon ahead of the front. Timing of the frontal passage
will impact precipitation types. As of now snow begins to mix into
the region late afternoon just before the system exits to our east.
Not expecting much in terms of accumulations, only a few tenths of
an inch possible. Conditions mainly dry out by Saturday evening as
shortwave slides east with west to northwest flow settling in behind
the front. Cooler temperatures return Saturday night with lows in
the upper teens to low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

Quiet weather under high pressure for Sunday. It will remain
cool as cold air aloft (-9C at 850mb) remains in place. A warm
frontal system quickly moves into the area Sunday night bringing
the next round of precipitation. At this time it looks like it
may be cold enough to start as a period of snow overnight into
early Monday morning. Warmer air aloft, and eventually at the
surface moves in late at night, which will change the snow over
to a light wintry mix and rain from SW to NE. QPF amounts are
around a tenth to quarter inch for most locations...with up to
four-tenths of an inch over northern Oneida and the Catskills.
Too early to pin down potential snow amounts, but some minor
accumulations are certainly looking possible, especially over
the higher elevations and along/east of I-81. Overnight lows are
seasonably cold in the mid-20s to lower 30s...but temperatures
do start rising toward daybreak Monday.

A dry slot moves into the area Monday morning with just a few
lingering showers possible. Then, the upper level trough swings
in from the NW Monday afternoon bringing numerous showers to the
region. With the southerly flow out ahead of the low pressure
center, it looks to warm up into the 50s early Monday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers continue Monday night in the
colder westerly flow under the broad upper level trough.
Overnight lows dip down between 30-35 so some snow showers do
mix in at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
240 PM Update

A cool, unsettled weather pattern looks to persist for much of
next week. A large, high amplitude upper level ridge over the
western CONUS remains in place...and this forces the eastern
trough to remain very persistent. This will keep a cold
northwest flow pattern in place for the Northeastern US, with
several clippers and low pressure systems moving through the
area. Timing each individual system/wave is tricky this far out
in time. However, the latest model data suggests just a few
light showers around for Tuesday; mainly in CNY with highs in
the 40s. Latest guidance is starting to shift south with a weak
low for Wednesday, keeping our area in a northwest flow pattern
with perhaps just a few isolated pop up showers. Temperatures
remain steady with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s and
highs still in the 40s. Wednesday night and Thursday are mainly
dry with weak high pressure nudging in from the Ohio
Valley/Appalachians region; steady temperatures a few degrees
below normal expected. Uncertainly increases for the end of next
week, but shower chances are increasing in the NBM data heading
into Friday and Friday night...temperatures potentially start to
moderate some for the end of next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected overnight and through the early
morning hours. After 12z, a front will bring rain showers to the
region. Ceilings begin to drop ahead of the showers. MVFR
restrictions are expected at all terminals as the front moves
through. Brief Fuel Alt will also be possible at the CNY
terminals but this was left out of the TAFs for now. The front
is quick to move through and most terminals will improve to VFR
Saturday evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable for most of the
overnight hours. As the front approaches, southerly winds become
gusty. Then as the front moves through, winds become
northwesterly and even stronger. Peak gusts during the daytime
hours on Saturday will be around 25 kts. Low-level wind shear
will be possible at ELM, ITH, and SYR between 06 and 12z. Winds
will be 35 to 40 kts out of the west-southwest up to FL020.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Another system brings rain/snow showers to the area
with associated restrictions possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Scattered snow and rain showers over
the region with more restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...BTL/ES
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL