379
FXUS63 KAPX 140656
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms
  through daybreak. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72.

- Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday
  evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds
  and large hail.

- Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this
  week before turning cold late this weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This section covers the forecast for the rest of tonight. For
latest Area Forecast Discussion addressing the remainder of the
forecast period, see the next section.

Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal
boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will
remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening
into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with
vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast
Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding
instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This
particular region will be the primary focus for deeper
convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs
elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern
and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards
being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an
amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root
integrity on trees).

The biggest story from this episode of convection is most
certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of
flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32,
lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated
soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to
elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive
Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with
the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general,
this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning.

The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for
repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably.
Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end
impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all
that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to
rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst
case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of
2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the
placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large
portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level
rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already
exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight.

Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Continued active pattern consisting of troughing over the western
CONUS and ridging anchored over the eastern seaboard. This will
continue to result in an active, southern stream wave dominant
pattern that leads to numerous disturbances riding into the Great
Lakes region, focused along a stationary boundary draped over
Michigan. A direct Gulf moisture tap will continue to lead to
anomalously moist airmasses moving into Michigan, and thus continues
a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat through the end of the week.
Some signs of a pattern breakdown with cooler weather through the
weekend into next week... with perhaps a brief reprieve from the wet
conditions as well.

Details:

Ongoing convection to continue through roughly daybreak. Warm /
stationary frontal boundary draped from Frankfort to
Harrisville, which will continue to be the focus for deeper
convection. Strong low level jet (LLJ) intrusion driving
elevated convection north into the Tip of the Mitt as well.
Heaviest rainfall rates and severe threat (hail and wind) will
still favor areas near and south of M-32, though with the
ongoing high water situation across the far northern reaches of
northern lower, there will continue to be flooding issues there
as well. Rainfall will diminish into the morning hours, giving a
temporary break to the area.

Dry weather to prevail through Tuesday, with the warm front sliding
just south owing to the ongoing convection. Another wave riding this
front will traverse lower Michigan. With much more instability to
play with, we may be looking at another round of severe storms and
heavy rain... but initial thinking from guidance is that this will
be suppressed downstate for the most part... perhaps scraping the M-
55 corridor. This will be an all hazards type setup, and
unfortunately will have to be refined with time based on where the
warm front goes. Nonetheless... it does appear the farther north one
goes, there should be a lesser risk of rain and thunderstorms later
tonight.

Additional waves of energy will barge through the region and deliver
more rounds of rainfall. Still a bit fuzzy on the details for the
time being... but timing is coming into focus. Additional showers
and storms will be possible south on Wednesday, overspreading much
of northern lower into Wednesday night - Thursday. Another reprieve
likely comes Friday before a larger system passes through the
region, delivering yet another round of rain and thunder Friday
night through Saturday. This will bring about colder temperatures to
the region... with the temperature contrast of colder in eastern
upper and mild / 70s south coming to a conclusion. Highs by Sunday
will be in the 30s to near 40 across the board with snow chances.
The chill will moderate some into midweek next week... with highs
possibly reaching back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR
producing low cigs/areas of mist will continue to pivot east
across the area early this morning. While showers do end this
morning, low clouds and mist will take until late morning and
afternoon to lift/scour out. Perhaps more MVFR producing cigs
and showers/thunderstorms return again this evening. Some gusty
winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible with any
stronger storms this morning. Otherwise, winds will remain
light.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB