043
FXUS64 KAMA 081835
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
135 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Breezy winds and dry air will create elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions across much of the Texas Panhandle Monday
  afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for portions of the
  Panhandles Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Current water vapor satellite and mesoanalysis observations show
weak flow aloft positioning a very dry air mass atop the Panhandles
today, which will be reinforced tomorrow when stronger flow arrives.
A strengthening low-level jet will help breezy winds persist
tonight, which will keep overnight lows somewhat mild in the 40s.

As a closed low off the Baja Peninsula slowly saunters onshore
tomorrow, another warm, dry, and breezy day is forecast. There is
still potential for record highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across
the area tomorrow afternoon. Confidence in records being broken
has slightly decreased, but probabilities remain medium-high
(70-80%) for Borger and Amarillo to surpass 84 and 83 degrees
respectively. Tomorrow`s humidity values will be comparable to
today (5-15% min RH), with westerly winds favored to be 15-25 mph
due to a better pressure gradient across the southern and central
Texas Panhandle. These areas will also have stronger 850 to 700
mb winds available to mix down, supporting gusts up to 35 mph. A
more well-defined thermal ridge should be in place as well, with
highs in the 80s forecast across the entire CWA. As a result,
critical fire weather conditions are forecast once again across
much of the Texas Panhandle. The northern combined Panhandles
will generally have lighter winds of 10- 15 mph due to proximity
near a surface low, favoring only elevated fire weather conditions
at best.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Models show the Baja low finally making greater eastward progression
Mon night into Tuesday, with strengthening southwest flow aloft
advancing over the southern Plains. This pattern will initially pull
improved mid-level Pacific moisture to the region, along with higher
sfc dew points to at least southeast portions of the Panhandles.
As energy with this positively tilted system arrives, a handful of
hit- or-miss showers and storms could develop early Tuesday
morning and afternoon (15-30% POPs). Given the more positively
tilted orientation of the low, a dry slot would likely be quick to
infiltrate the CWA through the day from southwest to northeast,
confining the majority of any afternoon storm chances to the far
east-northeastern Panhandles. The question to decipher for the
Panhandles is not "if" the dry slot will arrive, but rather "when"
it will, along with figuring out just how far west low-level
moisture can be maintained through the day.

Strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out across our east-northeast
counties, especially if a triple point feature sets up further south
than most models currently depict. Ensemble datasets continue to
trend eastward in terms of best conditions for storms, favoring the
bulk of this threat to remain mostly outside of our forecast area.
However, there are a few outliers such as the RRFS that would keep
us in the mix for a more active evening with strong to severe storm
potential, even if storms stay elevated. Current precip chances are
around 20-50% for much of the area Tue morning and afternoon, but
these POPs will likely need to be reduced or adjusted spatially as
we get closer.

Precip chances greatly decline as the system exits, with drier air
arriving behind a cold front passage Tue night into Wednesday.
Breezy north winds with this front will bring a short-lived cool
down, lowering afternoon highs to below seasonal averages in the 50s
to low 60s. Weak northwest flow aloft would promote a warming trend
through the rest of the week, with another dry and breezy day likely
Thursday, which will be monitored for additional elevated to
critical fire weather potential.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs.
Winds will remain out of the west-southwest for a vast majority of
the period at 10-20 kts with higher gusts at times. Some low-level
wind shear mentions may need to be added to the TAFs if confidence
increases later this evening with future forecasts.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>003-
     006>008-011>013-016-017.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38