127
FXUS61 KALY 220153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
953 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a seasonably cool night tonight, tomorrow will feature
above normal temperatures, although a mid-to-late afternoon cold
frontal passage will bring chances for showers and much cooler
weather for tomorrow night. Sunday looks dry, but yet another
storm system will bring wintry precipitation to the region
Sunday night and Monday. Seasonably cool temperatures with a few
chances for some light rain or snow showers continue through
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

- Gusty winds diminish this evening with tranquil weather
  expected overnight.

Discussion:

.UPDATE...As of 950 PM EDT, high pressure is cresting over the
region with a clear/mostly clear sky across all of eastern New
York and western New England. Winds continue to gradually
diminish across the region. A few localized gusts to 20 mph are
continuing but these should come to an end soon. The clear sky
and lighter winds combined with a dry air mass in place
(precipitable water value of 0.24 inches from tonight`s 00z KALY
sounding which is in the 25th percentile for this calendar date
per SPC Sounding Climatology) will aid in favorable radiational
cooling conditions. This has already occurred across portions of
the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks with temperatures already in
the upper 20s. Elsewhere, temps are in the 30s. Lows will
bottom out in the lower 20s to lower 30s overnight with some
high clouds increasing towards daybreak and a light southerly
wind developing. Main forecast update were to low temperatures
tonight, lowering the Mohawk Valley and Catskills with current
values near or slightly below the forecast lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Light rain/snow showers and breezy conditions expected
  Saturday afternoon/evening

- Widespread light snow or wintry mix changing to rain expected
  Sunday Night and Monday.

Discussion:

Saturday starts off chilly and dry, but our upper ridge and
surface high slide off to the east of our area as an upper
shortwave and associated cold front approach from the west. The
moisture looks to increase slightly ahead of the cold front,
but will still be rather unimpressive. Nevertheless, with decent
forcing we are expecting some scattered showers, potentially
mixing with some wet snow before ending, especially in the high
terrain. QPF amounts look to be on the lower side, with the
highest amounts of up to 0.2" of liquid mainly in the high
terrain where there will be upslope and/or lake enhancement. Up
to around an inch of snow, mainly on grassy and elevated
surfaces, will be possible in the ADKs and southern Greens.
Precip begins from west to east during the mid afternoon, ending
in the evening. Temperatures climb into the 40s (terrain) to
50s (valleys) ahead of the front tomorrow, but temperatures drop
quite quickly with the cold frontal passage. While not a
widespread threat, any surfaces that remain wet could become
slippery in the evening with the loss of daytime heating and the
cooler airmass moving in. It will also become breezy behind the
cold front, especially where W/NW flow is channeled down the
Mohawk Valley through the Capital District and into the
Berkshires.

Saturday night and Sunday...Precip ends in the evening for most
areas, although with a cold airmass moving over the Great Lakes
a few lake effect snow showers can`t be ruled out across the far
western Mohawk Valley into the northern Catskills. 850 mb
temperatures drop to -12 to -18, which will translate to lows
ranging from around 10 in the ADKs to low 20s in the Hudson
Valley. With large-scale subsidence and ridging aloft building
in and helping to sharpen the low-level inversion, we will have
to monitor the potential for more lake effect clouds than
currently forecast, which could keep temperatures a few degrees
warmer. Sunday, upper ridging and surface high pressure once
again build over the region resulting in tranquil conditions
with temperatures in the 30s to 40s with the cool airmass aloft
lingering overhead. Winds will diminish through the day as the
high builds in.

Sunday night and Monday...A closed upper low and associated
surface occluded low track into the Great Lakes. The warm front
associated with this system will lift northwards after 06z
Sunday, where the combination of warm advection/isentropic lift
will result in widespread light to perhaps locally moderate
precip overspreading the area. the system`s dry slot gives us a
break in the precip Monday afternoon, before the system`s cold
front brings some additional rain/snow showers Monday night as
the surface low tracks to our north. Monday starts off with
temperatures near or below freezing, but temperatures warm
through the 30s into the 40s for valley areas during the day.
Overnight lows Monday night will be mainly in the 20s to 30s.

There are still a lot of questions with precip type and
accumulations for this storm. Recent 12z guidance has trended
slightly colder, which isn`t a surprise seeing the cold air
damming signature with high pressure retreating to our
northeast. Initially, there is decent agreement that most areas
start off as snow, before a warm nose aloft works in and surface
temperatures warm during the day Monday. Areas along the I-84
corridor may quickly change to rain, while wintry precip looks
to hang on longer for areas north of I-90, especially where the
low-level cold air can be tough to scour out (Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley, CT River Valley). These
areas have the best chance at seeing over 1" of snow (40-80%
chance based on the 13z NBM) as well as some light freezing
rain/drizzle as low-level cold air is unable to erode and we
lose the ice in the clouds as the mid-level dry slot works in
late Monday morning or early afternoon. At this point, the
probability of reaching advisory-level snowfall alone is low
outside of the ADKs, but it`s not out of the question that a few
advisories may be needed in some high terrain areas for the
combination of light snow amounts plus a glaze of ice. We will
continue to monitor this period closely over the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected for the
  remainder of next week with a couple of disturbances bringing
  the chance for some mixed rain and snow showers at times.

Discussion:

Long wave troughing sets up for the remainder of next week with
embedded northern stream shortwave disturbances passing through
the flow. One shortwave looks to pass through on Tuesday with
mixed rain and snow showers with snow showers favoring the
higher elevations. Spread amongst timing and track of any
additional disturbances increases from Wednesday to Friday
leading to lower confidence. Moisture with each system looks
rather low so any snow accumulations look to be minimal.
Temperatures overall look to run near to slightly below normal
for the remainder of the week with highs generally in the 30s
and 40s with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z/Sun...High pressure building into the region
will bring continued VFR conditions through tonight with just a
few passing high clouds, especially after midnight. VFR
conditions continue Saturday morning with some gradual
thickening and lowering of clouds. An approaching cold front
will bring some showers to all TAF sites between 18z/Sat and
00z/Sun. Will include VCSH for this update and fine tune timing
of showers in later TAF issuances. Cigs should lower into the
MVFR range at most sites during this time with vsbys likely in
the MVFR/VFR range.

While a few gusts to around 20 kt remain possible for another
1-2 hours, wind will gradually diminish to 5 kt or less tonight.
Wind will shift to the south to southwesterly direction
Saturday morning at around 10 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt. Wind
will shift back to the west at similar speeds near or just
before 00z/Sun.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHSN.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...SHSN.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SPS in effect through 7 pm this evening for elevated fire
spread...Per collaboration with the NYS DEC and neighboring
offices, we have issued an SPS for portions of the
Leatherstocking FDRA, including southern Herkimer, Montgomery,
and Schoharie Counties, as well as for Saratoga, Warren, and
Washington Counties in the Upper Hudson Valley/Champlain FDRA.

Despite last night`s rainfall, our partners at the NYS DEC
confirmed that fine fuels such as grasses and brush could
quickly dry out this afternoon with increasing sun and low RH
values. RH values as low as 15-25% are occurring this afternoon
with wind gusts of 25-30 mph, especially in the upper Hudson
Valley. Despite favorable conditions for fire spread across most
of the rest of the region, SPSs were not issued for these areas
that saw more significant rainfall amounts last night.

RH values recover to 55-75% overnight tonight. Tomorrow, RH
values drop to 35-45% for areas along and east of I-87, with
wind gusts potentially reaching 12-18 mph. However, a cold front
will bring scattered rain and snow showers by mid to late
afternoon, which should help mitigate fire weather concerns. RH
values recover to 55-75% Saturday night with lows in the 10s to
20s, although wind gusts increase to 15-15 mph Saturday evening
through the night. On Sunday, RH values of 20-30% are expected
for most of the region, although winds will be diminishing
through the day as high pressure builds overhead. Nevertheless,
additional SPS may be needed Sunday. Widespread precipitation is
then expected Sunday night and Monday.

A reminder that the annual New York State burn ban is in
effect until May 14. No burn permits are issued.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Main