166
FXUS61 KAKQ 220239
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1039 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds across the region tonight. A dry cold
front crosses the area later Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Another cold front crosses the area on Monday, bringing
the chance for light rain showers. High pressure returns into
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1035 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and warmer on Saturday with high temperatures rebounding into
the upper 60s and low 70s.

- Fire weather is a concern on Saturday after substantial drying of
fine fuels today.

This evening, high pressure was located across the Southeast,
extending N across the East Coast. A weak upper disturbance
approaches from the west overnight, bringing an increase in mid
and high level clouds. Temperatures tonight range from the upper
30s to lower 40s inland and mid 40s closer to the coast and
across the SE.

The surface ridge will be suppressed to the south Saturday as a
shortwave trough drops from the upper Midwest into New England by
the afternoon hours, bringing a dry cold front across the local
area. Dry westerly flow at the surface and aloft will promote
downslope warming/drying across the region. Continued the trend of
going above deterministic/statistical guidance in regards to the
temperatures for Saturday, with highs in the lower 70s for much of
the area (upper 60s Eastern Shore and Northern Neck). Dewpoints will
generally be in the upper 30s to lower 30s, resulting in afternoon
RH values in the 20-30% range. Winds are still not expected to be as
strong as compared to today, with gusts of 20-25 mph expected on
Saturday. The combination of the gusty winds and low RH values will
result in the potential for fire weather concerns, see the fire
weather section below for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Rain chances return for Monday ahead of the next cold front.

Cooler, but remaining dry on Sunday in the wake of the dry cold
front. Highs will range from the mid to upper 60s across the SW to
the lower 50s across the NE. Clouds increase from NW to SE Sunday
night as high pressure moves offshore ahead of the next system
approaching from the west. Overnight lows will be tricky with temps
falling initially then leveling off late as clouds move into the
region and low level winds transition to southeasterly.

Weakening low pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes on
Monday, dragging another cold front across the region later Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Rainfall with this system will be light
due to limited deep layer moisture, with the latest QPF forecast
only showing ~0.10" at most through Monday. High temperatures will
range from the mid-upper 60s N and NW to the lower 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler mid-week as deep upper troughing sets up across the eastern
  CONUS.

In the wake of the front that is progged to move through the region
on Monday, temperatures will drop back to near normal. Upper
troughing will set up across the eastern U.S. which will allow for a
gradual cooling through mid-week, with highs in the lower to mid 60s
(upper 50s Eastern Shore) and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
While Monday night and Tuesday look dry, model guidance is pointing
to a weak disturbance rounding the southern periphery of the upper
trough Tuesday night. This disturbance will quickly move through the
forecast area before ejecting off into the western North Atlantic
Wednesday. Another shot at rain is possible as this disturbance
rolls across the forecast area Tuesday night. While there is limited
moisture associated with this feature and is it quite transient,
scattered showers remain possible as it moves through the forecast
area, so have introduced chance PoPs. Thereafter, high pressure in
the low-levels builds in and rain chances diminish for the remainder
of the week. There is some discrepancy between global models in
regards to how quickly the upper trough moves out of the region. The
GFS has it starting to push offshore Thursday afternoon, which would
allow temperatures to start to moderate Thursday. The ECMWF is a
little sharper as it moves through the Atlantic coast before finally
shifting offshore Thursday night. This would keep temperatures
suppressed during the day Thursday. Have gone with middle of the
road temperatures (highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s) for now
until there is more certainty in the forecast for this time period.
By Friday, temperatures will be able to climb into the 60s, making
for a nice end to the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 935 PM Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z taf period. As daytime
heating starts tomorrow morning, WSW winds will increase to ~15
kt with gusts up to ~25 kts. Otherwise, high clouds build in
tonight, clearing Sat morning from S to N. Additional FEW-SCT CU
(6000-8000 ft CIGs) are expected Sat afternoon. Clouds clear
Sat evening with winds diminishing overnight.

Outlook: High pressure and prevailing VFR conditions continue into
the weekend. A chance of showers returns Monday along another cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have replaced Gale Warnings through this
evening.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisories will go into effect
Saturday morning through the afternoon.

Current surface analysis shows low pressure off the New England
coast, moving further offshore. High pressure builds in the SE
ushering out the tighter pressure gradient and stronger winds. Winds
have decreased this afternoon and will continue to fall through the
night. Winds are currently NW 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
dropping to 5 to 10 kt. Winds will fall below SCA criteria here
shortly , however the seas remain elevated. Seas and waves currently
are between 4 to 6 ft in the coastal waters and 2 to 3 ft in the
bay. Seas will remain elevated for the next few hours, with SCAs
expiring at 7 PM for all the coastal waters.

High pressure will continue to build in tonight and into the
weekend. With the warmer, drier air, there will be strong mixing
down to the surface Saturday with breezy conditions for the majority
of the day. With the surface/land interface, the rivers are likely
to experience higher gusts than the bay. Winds will be SW 15 to 20
kt with gusts up to 25 for the rivers and 10 to 15 kt with gusts up
to 20 kt for the bay. This being said, have issued SCA for the
rivers and bay, with higher confidence for the rivers. A weak cold
front will move through the area early Sunday morning shifting the
winds back out of the NW with sub-SCA winds. A cold front with the
next low pressure system will move through the area Monday. SCA
conditions are likely with increased winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

A combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds may
result in adverse fire behavior for portions of the area on
Saturday. Min RH values drop to 20 to 30% (lowest across the
western Piedmont) by Saturday afternoon. In addition, it will
remain breezy with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible. However,
fuel moisture should help to keep fire conditions in check, as
much of the area saw ~0.25" of rain yesterday with portions of
the area seeing 0.50 to 1.00+" of rain. Over the past week,
eastern portions of the area have seen as much as 3-5" of
rainfall, with standing water still in many locations. As a
result, the best chances for an enhanced fire danger on Saturday
will likely be across far western portions of the area and
across NE North Carolina where we have seen less rainfall. Will
let the next shift take one more look and fine tune any
potential fire weather SPS`s. Virginia residents are reminded
that burning prior to 4pm each day is prohibited through the end
of April.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

River Flood Warnings remain in effect for Sebrell (Nottoway),
and the Blackwater above Franklin.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for VAZ048-060-061-065-066-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-
     634>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/RHR
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...HET/KMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...