484
FXAK67 PAJK 182348
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
348 PM AKDT Tue Mar 18 2025

.SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...
Key Messages:
-Low pressure and associated front will move north tonight into
 Wednesday.
-The front will bring elevated wind speeds as the front moves
 through as well as moderate to heavy precip.
-The colder air in place in Northern Lynn Canal means snow, with
 significant snowfall amounts along the highways.


Details:
An expected near 985mb low will track north through the central
Gulf of Alaska. As it does, the associated front will track north
through the panhandle. Wind speeds will slowly increase as the
front moves closer and through your area. Wind gusts will be
greatest in the southern panhandle, upwards of 35 to 50 mph on
Prince of Wales Island, Metlakatla, and Ketchikan. While
widespread 55 to 60 mph wind gusts are not expected, we can`t rule
out the occasional extra high wind gust.

The marine zones will see wind speeds increase to 25 to 35 kts in
the inner channels with even stronger winds in the gulf. See the
MARINE section below for more details.

For the Icy Strait corridor and south, mainly rain is expected.
That being said, some rain/snow mixing is possible in the early
parts of the day before the switch to rain.

For Northern Lynn Canal, near sea level, snow amounts up to 2
inches are likely before the switch to rain. But higher up along
the highways, significant snowfall is more likely with amounts
upwards of 3 to 8 inches. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued
for the Haines Highway, mainly west of Klukwan. And a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for the Klondike Highway.
Snowfall rates will up upwards of a half inch to one inch per hour
during peak snowfall rates. See the latest Winter Statements for
more.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Few changes made to the
long term forecast with an active pattern set to continue through
the weekend and into next week.

Showers will linger over the panhandle before another low end gale
force front pushes northward extending from a weakening low in the
central gulf. This will bring more organized showers to the
panhandle in the form of rain in the south with a chance for mixed
in the far northern panhandle. Overall precipitation amounts will be
moderate and less than that of the preceding system in the short
term. Marine winds will pick up along the outer coast as the front
shifts northward Thursday evening before beginning to slacken early
Friday as the front begins to stall. Inside marine waters  Upper
level support will cut the momentum of the low in the central gulf
as it begins to fill, as a weak surface ridge tries to build over
the panhandle from the south. Southwesterly flow aloft and at the
surface however will keep showers over the panhandle, with
communities further from the coast having the best chance for a
short reprieve Friday night into Saturday.

Another system will enter the gulf later Saturday into Sunday, once
again bringing a fresh influx of moisture and increasing winds.
While there is confidence in the synoptic pattern, the timing of
this feature is still in flux and will largely depend upon the
strength of the ridge over the panhandle ahead of it.

Overall a relatively temperate and wet pattern for the panhandle
heading into the weekend and into early next week with temperatures
ranging from the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Wednesday afternoon/...Visual conditions
over portions of Southeast Alaska this afternoon will deteriorate
to marginal for both CIGs and VSBY as the next front pushes
inland. Large areas of instrument conditions also anticipated over
the northern half of the panhandle in heavier snow showers. High
end gale force winds over the eastern Gulf tonight will result in
LLWS and turbulence for all but the far northern inner channels
with the worst of it over the central and southern outer coast
tonight. LLWS and turbulence will ease up on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and wave heights are on an upward trend through
tonight as a gale force front moves north through the gulf. The
parent low staying around 200 NM offshore in the eastern Gulf of
Alaska. The front will bring areas of strong gale force winds
(41-47 kts) with the possibility of gusts exceeding storm force
(48-55 kts) along the leading edge starting late this afternoon
and evening.

Gale warnings are in place through early tomorrow morning. Winds
in the southern panhandle are expected to turn south to south
easterly, while the central panhandle will have more easterly
winds out of Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and behind Douglas Island.
Lynn Canal`s southerly winds will calm and switch northerly as
the front approaches, possibly increasing wind speeds. Point
Couverden could be the big winner in the inside channels, with
easterly winds from the back side of Douglas combining with the
northerly wind from Lynn to form a tip jet, which could reach 30
to 35 kts.

Seas will build with the front, possibly exceeding 20 ft wave
height around 20 NM off the coast of Cape Edgecombe. Small craft
advisories are in place through the inner channels of the central
panhandle. There is an area of uncertainty in Cross Sound where
NE gale force winds meet the front-drive southerly swell, which
could raise wave heights to higher than expected. Winds are
looking to calm down through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ317. Winter
 Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ318.
 Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ319.
 Strong Wind from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
 AKZ323-327.
 Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Wednesday
 morning for AKZ328.
 Strong Wind from late tonight through Wednesday morning for AKZ330.
 Strong Wind from 10 PM AKDT this evening through Wednesday
 afternoon for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
 Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...Fritsch
MARINE...ZTK/GJS

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