595
FXAK67 PAJK 100607
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1007 PM AKDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.UPDATE...Update aviation discussion for 6z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Key Messages:
- Partly sunny skies Wednesday evening with times of light showers
  possible.
- Strongest winds tonight near Taiya Inlet and Skagway around 20
  kts.
- A gale force front reaches the panhandle tonight into Thursday
  bringing strong winds and heavy rain.

Details: For tonight, a ridge over the panhandle is allowing for
party cloudy skies with short times of light precipitation due to
continued onshore flow. Winds remain rather light across the
panhandle with the exception of N. Lynn Canal and Skagway where a
sea breeze has allowed for 20 kt winds. These light showers and
winds continue until tomorrow morning when the gale force front
starts to reach the panhandle.

As the gale force front reaches the panhandle an associated weak to
moderate atmospheric river will bring an increased amount of
moisture toward the panhandle, focused on southern areas. Moderate
to heavy rain will occur across the panhandle. The heaviest rain
will be focused near southern Baranof Island and Ketchikan areas
Thursday evening into early Friday. Rain rates of 0.1 to 0.15 inches
with 24 hour totals of 1 to 2 inches. Port Alexander and Ketchikan,
are both showing 60% to 80% chance of 0.15 inches in an hour
Thursday evening and night. In isolated areas and higher elevations,
rain rates up to 0.2 to 0.25 inches per hour are possible. A flood
advisory has been issued for Ward Lake area near Ketchikan, other
rivers and creeks can reach or may go above bank full.

The strongest winds will be in the NE Gulf of Alaska with gale force
winds of 35 to 40 kts. The strongest wind gusts will be near Kayak
Island with gusts up to 45 to 50 kts possible. Other areas of the
panhandle will see increases in wind as well with strong breezes to
near gales across the northern and central inside waters. The
southern inside waters will increase to gale force winds Thursday
afternoon and evening. For land areas, the strongest winds will be
near Ketchikan and Metlakatla areas with gusts up to 40 mph in the
evening.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/

Key messages:
- Thursday system dissipates through Friday
- Another weak low continues impacts for southern panhandle Saturday
- High pushes up from the south, dry but clouds linger next week

Details: Impacts from Thursday`s front will decrease Friday
before another low moves into the eastern gulf. The gale force
front reaching the outer coast Thursday afternoon into the evening
will steadily decrease in strength through Friday afternoon. SW
winds following the front are expected to range from 15 to 20 kts
(17 to 23 mph), shifting SE as the next front moves in. The
atmospheric river previously helping to fuel the front is shifting
south to be below the panhandle, but not before sending another
small plume of moisture to the southern panhandle for Saturday.
The lingering upper level low and an embedded shortwave trough
will help direct the small front onshore. The front will reach the
panhandle by early Saturday morning, bringing moderate to fresh
breezes to the southern coast and channel entrances with around
0.5 inches of precipitation expected for southern regions. Ridging
moving north through the gulf will push the low out of the
panhandle and set up for potential drier weather Sunday afternoon,
though clouds are still expected to linger through the beginning
of next week. Temperatures are still slightly below normal, though
with the drier weather coming up next week there is potential for
highs in the mid to high 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions dominate the panhandle Wednesday night
as a ridge exerts itself and higher level clouds finally begin to
thin out from west to east, leaving mostly mid level clouds of
4000 to 6000 ft in some parts of the central and northern
panhandle. Approaching gale force front will bring deteriorating
conditions Thursday across the panhandle with rain and lowered
CIGs, along with LLWS primarily for outer coastal communities.
These strong gusty winds are expected to pick up in the early
afternoon hours around 00z and spread to the inner channels
through the afternoon and early evening hours. For the southern
half of the panhandle, heavier rain rates will lead to greater
drops in VIS later in the period as the front pushes inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: Sunny breaks today have allowed for continued sea
breeze winds for N Lynn Canal into Skagway. These winds will begin
to diminish tonight into tomorrow as our next front reaches the
panhandle. This front will begin to increase winds along the inside
waters Thursday morning and continue to increase through the day. In
the morning, winds in the southern channels will increase to strong
breezes of 20 to 25 kts and continue to increase to gale force winds
of 35 kts Thursday night. The strongest of these winds will be in
southern Clarence Strait near Dixon Entrance with wave heights of 5
to 7 ft. The central and northern channels will see wind increases
to fresh to strong breezes with wind gusts up to 30 to 35 kts.

Outside waters: Expect seas up to 3-5ft to persist through this
evening until a strong front approaches the outer Gulf waters by
late tonight. Winds will increase to gale winds of 35 to 40 kts by
Thursday morning over the Gulf with strongest winds contained along
the northern Gulf coast with barrier jet formation by Thursday
afternoon. With the strongest winds in the NE gulf, wind gusts of 45
to 50 kts are possible for a short time Thursday evening, near Kayak
Island. Gale force winds along the eastern gulf coast will continue
through Thursday before beginning to diminish Thursday night.
Along with gale force winds, waves increase to 10 to 13 ft, with
15 to 17 ft in the northern gulf. A wave period of 15 seconds will
be associated with these waves.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Widespread moderate to heavy precipitation across
the panhandle will create rises in creeks and rivers Thursday
into Friday morning. With expected rain rates of 0.1 to 0.15
inches per hour in Ketchikan, a flood advisory has been issued for
the Ward Lake area. Isolated areas and higher elevations can see
hourly rates up to 0.2 to 0.25 inches. Currently, other rivers are
expected to stay below flood stage, but can reach bank full. With
widespread moderate to heavy rain, we will continue to monitor
areas as the system approaches and is ongoing.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>036-053-651.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAB
HYDROLOGY...EAB

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