388
FXAK67 PAJK 140529
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
929 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation Section to include the 06z TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 433 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13...

SYNOPSIS...

- Tuesday is expected to see a clearing from north to south, with
  increased chances of sun and warmer temperatures.

- Showers return late on Wednesday and into Thursday.

SHORT TERM...

A broad area of low pressure in the Gulf is bringing with it rain
and snow showers across SE AK, driven by continuing onshore flow
and conditional instability. 850 mb temperatures are between -6C
and -8C, and 1000 to 850 mb thickness values of 1285-1290
decameters would normally indicate the potential for accumulating
snow under these conditions. However, diurnal heating has proven
sufficient to hold most of the accumulations at bay, with the bulk
of the snow melting almost as quickly as it can falls in areas
under heavier bands of showers.

Overnight, the low will begin to traverse SE and showers will
diminish across the northern half of the area. This will set the
stage for fog development for areas north of Sitka. Showers
continuing across the southern panhandle could drop minor snow
accumulations of less than an inch during the same timeframe as
diurnal heating subsides. Tuesday will see showers dwindle across
the remainder of the area and drier weather take hold. Some
locations will likely climb into the 50s. Tuesday night will see
returning chances of fog, this time reaching further into the
southern panhandle, but drier weather will continue through most
of Wednesday until a shortwave manages to race over the axis of
the ridge and into SE AK Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...The low impacting the southern panhandle Tuesday will
continue to dip south into Wednesday, allowing for skies over the
rest of the panhandle to clear out. A broad upper level ridge
develops, with the associated surface level ridging positioned to
continue onshore flow into the panhandle. Mid level moisture looks
to move into the northern panhandle with a shortwave trough on
Wednesday night, allowing for light snow in Yakutat and parts of
the far northern panhandle Thursday morning. Snow is not really
expected to stick for these locations as temperatures remain
around freezing, though higher elevation areas and the Klondike
and Haines Highways may see up to an inch. This precipitation will
be a mix or all rain for the rest of the northern and central
panhandle Wednesday, moving into parts of the southern panhandle
through Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers are expected to
continue until Thursday night, when a more organized front moves
into the panhandle from northwest to southeast. This will bring
widespread precipitation to the panhandle Friday into Saturday,
though QPF remains on the lower side. Again, Yakutat and the
northern highways may see snow with this front, though daytime
temperatures should only allow for minimal, if any, accumulation.
Precipitation is expected to taper down through Saturday, though
it may not completely stop until Sunday. The only real wind issue
is expected near the typical hot spots from Thursday into Friday
as the front moves inland, with Lynn Canal, southern Stephens
Passage near Five Finger Lighthouse, and around Point Couverden
potentially seeing small craft advisories through this period.

AVIATION.../Until 06z Wednesday/...Showers across the panhandle continue
to bring MVFR down to IFR conditions this evening with rain and
snow. These showers have been starting to end from north to south
and will continue to diminish through the overnight hours into
Tuesday. With the clearing skies, there in an increasing potential
for some fog development, especially across the northern
panhandle should winds continue to diminish. Farther south, the
showers are expected to persist into the morning hours as the low
bringing these showers to the area starts to work to the south.
With the showers, AAWU forecasts for icing show a broad area for
potential icing from FL040 to FL100. This area of icing is
expected to decrease in size as over the southern panhandle going
into tomorrow morning.

MARINE...

Outer Coastal Waters: As a low treks off to the south, winds will
turn out of the NW through Monday night. Anticipate winds will
strengthen to fresh to strong breezes across the outer coastal
waters, with the strongest winds south of Kruzof Island.
Waveheights of 5 to 7 ft are expected for areas north of Kruzof,
while waveheights of 6 to 9 ft are expected for areas south.
Through Wednesday, winds will shift out of the W before becoming
SW on Thursday. SW swell with wave periods of 7 to 10 seconds.

Inner Channels: Winds in the inner channels remain out of the
south through the evening hours on Monday, with fresh to strong
breezes, especially for Lynn Canal and Stephen`s Passage. As a low
tracks south through the night, winds weaken and eventually flip
out of the North. Winds will strengthen again to fresh breeze -
although this time out of the north - through the day on Tuesday.
Winds will flip back out of the S on Thursday as the pressure
gradient once more flips.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-641>644-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS

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