054
FXAK68 PAFC 140031
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday)...

Generally seasonable weather is expected to continue for Southcentral
Alaska over the next few days with a chance or two of precipitation.
GOES water vapor imagery shows a large upper-level low currently
sliding every so slightly east across the Gulf of Alaska, with
northerly and easterly flow aloft across much of the area.
Shortwave energy rounding this low will continue to yield mostly
light snow across the Copper River Basin for the remainder of
today, while areas west, including Anchorage, the Kenai Peninsula,
and Mat-Su Valley, will gradually see cloud cover and any
lingering precip diminish.

Lingering snow in the Copper River Basin will dissipate tonight as
shortwave ridging builds in the wake of the departing low. Ridging
out of the North Pacific will then amplify and build across the Gulf
into Southcentral Alaska on Tuesday, leading to a generally pleasant
April day for most of the area.

By Wednesday, a series of shortwave troughs amid southwest flow
aloft will begin moving atop the ridge and into Southcentral AK. The
first front and associated precipitation reaches Kodiak Island
Tuesday night before then spreading across the Kenai Peninsula and
the rest of the area during the day on Wednesday. Lingering cold air
will keep most precipitation as snow with any elevation, but lower
elevations (generally <1000ft) will likely experience a mix of
rain/snow or even all rain as near-surface and low-level
temperatures warm up with April insolation.

Precipitation looks to diminish Wednesday night as ridging builds in
wake of this system, but another front, tied a more potent low in
the eastern Bering, shifts into Southcentral again on Thursday
and Thursday night. There remains some timing differences with
various model runs, but Kodiak Island looks to get the next wave
of precip sometime Thursday morning before the rest of
Southcentral gets it later into the day and into the overnight
period. Snow levels will be similar to the previous day`s system,
though perhaps a few hundred feet higher initially due to the
timing. Locations at elevation should remain most/all snow with
this next wave.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

A weakening low moving over the Kamchatka Peninsula is sending a
frontal system across much of the western and central Bering Sea
today. Steady rain and gusty south winds are affecting much of the
Aleutian Chain. The front is currently arriving in St. Paul where
things still look on track for gusty southeasterly winds and a
short period of snow before warming temperatures transition
precipitation to rain late this evening. There could still be a
some blowing snow and reduced visibility before temperatures rise
above freezing, but it will be very short-lived. The front will
continue into the AKPen and Southwest on Tuesday as it begins to
weaken and occlude, spreading mainly snow across the region from
west to east through Tuesday night. Some occasional mixing with
rain is possible during the afternoon on Tuesday, especially along
the coast. Any accumulation will be light, generally 1 to 3
inches or less through Wednesday morning.

In the wake of the weakening front, a series of shortwave troughs
will move into the Bering Sea as a more progressive, showery
pattern takes hold towards midweek. Clusters of rain and snow
showers will move across much of the greater Bering Sea region
late Tuesday through Thursday, especially near a more potent
shortwave trough skirting along the Aleutian Chain for Wednesday
and moving into the N AKPen and Bristol Bay Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An active pattern continues for mid-April with multiple systems
bringing precipitation and cloud cover to the region. Broad upper-
level troughing across the western Bering and coastal mainland
will be in place to begin the period, placing the Aleutians and
much of Southern Alaska in active quasi- southwest flow with
embedded shortwaves. Kicking off the period on Thursday,
precipitation will overspread much of Southcentral AK amid
southwest flow.

On Friday afternoon, the front of a strong North Pacific low
lifts across the Bering Sea, bringing mostly rain to the Aleutian
Islands and widespread gales to the southern Bering. As the center
of the system crosses into the Bering, winds weaken before
reaching the mainland, and precipitation evolves into a rain/snow
mix to all snow for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Coast by
Sunday afternoon.

While uncertainty remains high concerning details beyond Friday,
the upper- level low will remain in place across mainland Alaska,
and unsettled weather will continue for Southwest and Southcentral
through the start of next week. Temperatures will generally be
near average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light SW to NW winds are expected to
prevail through the period. Scattered mid to higher level clouds
will gradually dissipate tonight with generally clear conditions
expected by Tuesday morning.

&&

$$