873
FXAK68 PAFC 262350
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKDT Wed Mar 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

A fairly weak low to the southeast of Kodiak Island this
afternoon will continue to move south through the evening as
showers associated with its front will begin to taper off this
evening and overnight. with a weak front that extends out of it
and along the north Gulf coast. Relatively quiet weather is
expected tonight through Thursday, with the exception of some gap
winds through Passage Canal and through the Valdez Narrows.

A North Pacific low enters the southeastern Gulf early Friday
morning and moves northwestward through the day. There is
uncertainty regarding the ultimate track of this low. A
more/further northwest track would bring precipitation to the
north Gulf Coast, Prince William Sound, and along the eastern
Kenai Peninsula. A track more to the south would keep
precipitation mostly confined to the Gulf with the coast
potentially getting clipped with precipitation. As such, kept
chance PoPs along the coast for Friday and Saturday. Regardless of
the track of the Gulf low, inland locations look to remain dry
Friday and Saturday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...

A generally quiet spring pattern is expected to persist across the
majority of the outlook area through the start of the upcoming
weekend. A disorganized longwave trough with multiple embedded
shortwaves presides over the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest in
the upper levels, but dry and cool northerly flow near the surface
is keeping most of Southwest clear and dry today. Across the
western Bering, an upper level ridge is building into place, and
this ridge will continue to sharpen and intensify through the end
of the week. Near the crest of this ridge, a shortwave trough is
poised to soon dive south from the northern Bering into the
Pribilofs this evening into tonight. Scattered showers (mostly in
the form of snow) will move through the Pribilofs as the shortwave
and attendant weak low soon brush past the islands. Rain and snow
showers will shift down into the eastern Aleutians and the AKPen
from Cold Bay west as the trough continues south on Thursday
morning.

From Thursday onwards, the overarching pattern will be fairly
steady, but will become more amplified with time as the shortwave
trough continues south past the AKPen and into the North Pacific
and as the ridge out west continues to build. Gap winds will
uptick in strength markedly along and south of the AKPen as the
shortwave trough moves past and as cold air advection from the
north intensifies during the day on Thursday. Gusts through
favored bays and passes on the Pacific side could get as strong as
45 to 55 kts at times beginning Thursday afternoon. Sustained
winds will approach or reach gale force as well by Thursday night
and persist into Saturday along and south of the southern AKPen as
the pressure gradient between the Bering high and lower pressure
in the Gulf tightens. Otherwise, much calmer conditions will
persist under the ridge axis across the western Bering and
Aleutian Chain, though low stratus will likely become denser with
time as a strong subsidence inversion develops and traps low level
moisture in the marine layer. Across Southwest, cool and clear to
partly cloudy conditions will persist, but expect a slow warming
trend each day through the weekend as the air mass in place slowly
moderates.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday to Wednesday)...

The main feature on the Alaska Weather map is an extensive upper
level ridge stretching across the Bering. The ridge is slowly
wedging its way over Mainland Alaska on its way to the North
Pacific for midweek. The last vestiges of an upper level trough
over the Eastern Interior continue to weaken and slip into Western
Canada for Monday. Its trough extends into the Gulf of Alaska
through Tuesday. Forecast confidence rides well with a composite
GFS / ECMWF and Canadian models, with an ensemble mix taking over
by the end of the period. Overall amplitude across the region
smooths out through Wednesday.

A well developed closed surface low in the Eastern North Pacific
sweeps a couple of troughs across Southcentral Alaska through the
weekend as far South as Kodiak Island. An area of locally moderate
precipitation and gusty winds associated with a North Pacific low
and front rides over the Western and Northern Bering through
Wednesday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light northerly winds persist through
Thursday morning. An isolated shower is possible this morning
through this afternoon.

&&


$$