575
FXUS63 KABR 250536 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1136 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers and flurries are expected tonight into Sunday
  morning. Accumulations up to half an inch are possible.

- Bitter cold will continue through Monday morning. Highs will be
  in the single digits below to single digits above zero, with
  lows ranging from -5 to -15 for the next two days. The coldest
  air will be over far northern and northeastern South Dakota into
  west central Minnesota.

- Temperatures briefly return to near normal values Monday
  afternoon, with highs in the teens and 20s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 901 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Saturation seems to be occurring a bit quicker than soundings
suggest, with KMBG already seeing -SN with 2SM visibility. Weak
echoes across central SD giving way to flurries/very light snow as
evidenced by web cams across the region. Made a few more
adjustments to expand the flurries mention across the CWA, as well
as increasing cloud cover a bit more aggressively across north
central SD this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Clear sky conditions this afternoon, with temperatures gradually
creeping above 0 degrees across much of the area. As low clouds move
in tonight, there will be some chances for some light snow showers
as well. Confidence is low on the exact coverage and timing, but the
greatest chances to see measurable snow are over central and north
central South Dakota overnight tonight into early Sunday morning.
Areas that do see snow are not expected to receive more than a
couple of tenths of an inch in accumulation. By Sunday morning, a
high pressure center begins to build into the area, pushing the snow
chances out to the south by the end of the morning.

Cold temperatures are expected to stick around for the next couple
of days, and overnight wind chills may approach Cold Weather
Advisory status both Sunday and Monday in the early morning.
Sunday`s chances appear more marginal at this point, with high-
resolution ensembles showing chances to reach -30 degrees only at
roughly 10% over a small area along the SD/ND state line. As such,
no headline is expected for Sunday`s overnight cold. Stronger winds
gusting to 20-25 mph Sunday night into Monday morning look to
potentially provide broader coverage of Advisory criteria wind
chills, and a headline will definitely need to be considered with
future forecast packages. However, no headline will be issued at
this time.

The broad pattern of a ridge over the western CONUS and a trough
over the eastern CONUS is expected to continue through most of next
week, catching the ABR forecast area in the transition zone between
the two. This setup will support the continuation of temperatures 5-
10 degrees below late-January normals, with the exception of Monday
where a brief warm up to near-normal is expected. The extended
period looks mostly dry, with some possible snowfall coming mid-week
thanks to an upper-level jet streak riding down the front side of
the ridge. At this point, NBM probability of measurable snow reaches
about 50%, and probability of 1" sits at roughly 20% for this
clipper system. Otherwise, little of note in the extended period at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of MVFR CIGs will move across the region overnight, with
pockets of -SN and MVFR VBSY as well. Gradual improvements to VFR
will occur during the day Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT