392
FXUS65 KABQ 152011
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
211 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Scattered-to-isolated showers and storms will favor central and
  western New Mexico again Wednesday, when there will be a
  moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding in the Sangre de
  Cristo Mountains and a slight risk over the south central
  mountains.

- Scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  Thursday through Sunday with a risk of locally heavy rainfall
  and at least isolated flash flooding each day. Some storms will
  produce torrential downpours on Thursday, when the risk of flash
  flooding will be greatest.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning could
  accompany storms each day around the area. A few storms may
  become severe on Thursday.

- After high temperatures mostly below average during the latter
  half of this week, readings will climb above average early in
  the coming work week, and precipitation chances will decrease,
  as a high pressure system builds over New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Showers and storms will continue to favor the east slopes of the
central mountain chain westward this evening, with only a few
cells over the southwest mountains possible after midnight.
Precipitable water values will increase to between 100-150% of
average on Wednesday as an upper level trough passing eastward
over the northern and central Rockies draws better moisture
northward over NM. Storm coverage and rainfall intensity will also
increase on Wednesday with a greater risk that some storms will
produce locally heavy rainfall. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the northern and western mountains will
result in a moderate risk of flash flooding below the Hermit`s
Peak Calf Canyon Scar, while isolated to scattered activity from
the northwest plateau southeastward across central and south
central areas results in a slight risk of burn scar flash flooding
for the Ruidoso area scars. Northeast parts of the forecast area
should also see scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday. Wednesday night a moist backdoor cold front will
will increase moisture across the northeast and east central
plains where there is a roughly 40-60% chance of low clouds
developing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The uptick in thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity will
continue into Thursday thanks to low level moisture delivered
potentially as far west as the continental divide by Wednesday
night`s backdoor cold front. In addition, monsoon flow will
strengthen aloft on Thursday as a closed upper level low pressure
system stalled over the upper Baja Peninsula begins to move
toward the Four Corners. High temperatures are forecast to fall
from near to around 9 degrees below average on Thursday as
numerous showers and Thunderstorms occur from the east slopes of
the central mountain chain westward, with scattered to isolated
activity farther east. Some storms will be capable of producing
torrential rainfall with rain at rates over 2 inches per hour on
Thursday afternoon and evening. Models paint the heaviest
precipitation on Thursday along and east of the northern
mountains, where a disturbance embedded in the monsoon flow is
expected to cross. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on this
day and consider some Flood Watches for Flash Flooding, at least
for recent burn scars.

The Baja low will take its time to cross AZ and the Four Corners
Friday through Saturday, and probably won`t shift east of the CO
Rockies until Sunday. Rich monsoon flow will continue to cross the
forecast area in the process with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms, some capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall, mostly during the afternoon and evening each day through
the weekend. Temperatures will remain on the cool side, although
a few degrees of warming are forecast areawide on Sunday as some
drier air begins to work its way over the forecast area from the
west.

Early in the coming work week, a mid level high pressure system
will build over NM. An inefficient process of moisture recycling
should cause precipitable water values to continue to trend
downward, with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
developing mainly from the east slopes of the central mountain
chain westward each afternoon and evening. High temperatures will
also trend warmer, reaching a few to 9 degrees above 30-year
averages by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the
east slopes of the central mountain chain westward this afternoon
and evening, except for more numerous cells over the southwest
mountains. Most of the activity will move toward the south or
southeast at speeds around 5-10 KT. A few of today`s stronger
storms will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic
wind gusts around 40 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Moist monsoon flow will strengthen Wednesday through Thursday,
then remain fairly rich through Saturday, before drier air begins
to make its way over the forecast area from the west Sunday.
Wetting rain will favor all areas except southern parts of the
east central plains through the wet period, and Thursday should be
the day with the heaviest rainfall overall. After cool
temperatures during the latter half of the week, readings will
climb above average again early next week as a mid-level high
pressure system builds over NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  95  64  91 /  10  10  20  30
Dulce...........................  48  92  49  87 /  20  40  40  80
Cuba............................  57  91  58  85 /  20  30  50  80
Gallup..........................  54  88  55  85 /  40  50  70  80
El Morro........................  55  86  55  82 /  40  60  80  90
Grants..........................  56  90  57  85 /  30  60  70  90
Quemado.........................  58  86  57  82 /  60  90  90 100
Magdalena.......................  63  88  62  86 /  30  50  60  80
Datil...........................  58  85  55  82 /  40  80  70  90
Reserve.........................  54  90  53  87 /  60  90  80  90
Glenwood........................  58  93  58  92 /  50  90  70  90
Chama...........................  48  85  48  81 /  20  50  40  90
Los Alamos......................  62  86  62  82 /  10  50  40  90
Pecos...........................  58  86  58  81 /  20  50  50  90
Cerro/Questa....................  55  86  55  82 /  10  60  50  90
Red River.......................  47  77  45  72 /  20  60  50  90
Angel Fire......................  41  79  43  73 /  10  60  40  90
Taos............................  53  88  54  83 /  10  50  40  90
Mora............................  52  83  50  77 /  10  60  40  90
Espanola........................  60  95  61  91 /  10  40  40  80
Santa Fe........................  62  88  62  84 /  10  40  50  80
Santa Fe Airport................  60  92  61  87 /  10  40  40  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  96  69  90 /  20  30  60  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  97  68  92 /  20  20  50  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  99  67  95 /  20  20  50  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  97  68  93 /  20  20  50  60
Belen...........................  64  98  65  94 /  20  20  50  50
Bernalillo......................  66  99  68  94 /  20  30  50  70
Bosque Farms....................  63  98  64  94 /  20  20  50  50
Corrales........................  67  99  68  95 /  20  30  50  70
Los Lunas.......................  65  98  66  94 /  20  20  50  50
Placitas........................  65  94  66  89 /  20  30  50  70
Rio Rancho......................  67  98  68  93 /  20  20  50  70
Socorro.........................  68  99  68  96 /  20  30  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  90  59  84 /  20  30  50  80
Tijeras.........................  61  91  61  86 /  20  30  50  80
Edgewood........................  56  91  56  85 /  20  30  40  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  91  55  86 /  20  30  40  70
Clines Corners..................  58  86  57  79 /  20  30  40  70
Mountainair.....................  58  89  58  84 /  20  30  50  70
Gran Quivira....................  58  88  59  83 /  20  30  40  70
Carrizozo.......................  65  91  65  87 /  10  30  30  60
Ruidoso.........................  59  83  58  80 /   5  30  10  70
Capulin.........................  55  84  53  76 /  10  50  70  80
Raton...........................  55  88  53  80 /  20  60  60  80
Springer........................  55  90  55  82 /  10  50  50  80
Las Vegas.......................  55  86  54  79 /  10  40  40  80
Clayton.........................  63  91  60  81 /   5  20  70  40
Roy.............................  58  88  58  80 /  10  30  50  60
Conchas.........................  66  96  65  88 /  10  10  40  40
Santa Rosa......................  63  93  63  86 /  10  10  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  63  94  62  87 /   5   5  40  20
Clovis..........................  66  96  67  92 /   0   0  20  20
Portales........................  66  96  67  93 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  66  96  66  92 /   5   5  20  20
Roswell.........................  70  99  71  96 /   5   0   5  10
Picacho.........................  63  93  64  89 /   5  10  10  40
Elk.............................  60  90  60  87 /   0  20   5  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44