Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
361 FXUS65 KABQ 212040 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 240 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 - The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will create critical fire weather conditions across the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and all of eastern New Mexico on Saturday. If a fire starts, rapid fire spread is likely. - Above normal temperatures will be observed Saturday and all of next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Less wind has been observed today, but breezy conditions were still present, mainly from northwestern to central New Mexico. Winds will strengthen more on Saturday, particularly over the northern and central mountains and highlands where gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be common. Dry conditions and very low humidity will also be present on Saturday, leading to a higher risk of rapid fire growth and spread. A warming trend will get underway this weekend into the middle of next week while the mostly dry conditions prevail. Overall, wind speeds will trend lighter next week with mostly light to moderately breezy conditions each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 An upper level shortwave trough and associated 80-100kt speed max will move east thru the central Rockies tonight and Saturday. Ridge top winds will increase tonight across the northern mts with a >60% probability of wind gusts >40mph along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts by sunrise. Increasing mid and high level clouds in the base of the trough tonight will allow min temps to trend a few degrees warmer than last night, especially for valley locales where slight mixing also allows for weaker thermal inversions. Saturday will feature stronger west winds areawide as the base of the shortwave trough slides thru southern Colorado. 700-500mb layer winds will increase to between 30 and 50kt over northern NM, with the strongest speeds found to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The latest NBM probabilities for wind gusts >50mph is over 60% in the area from near Angel Fire to Las Vegas and Clines Corners. MOS guidance is also supportive of sustained wind speeds >30mph in this area, so a Wind Advisory will be posted. Folks traveling along I-25 and U.S. 285 will encounter hazardous crosswinds with localized blowing dust possible. Mt wave action will be amplifying by late day along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts where a couple rogue gusts >55mph cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, it will be much warmer Saturday with max temps trending 5-10F above normal. Humidity is also likely to fall below 15% across much of central and eastern NM so fire danger will be very high. Outdoor burning should not be done. Winds will remain elevated Saturday evening around the high terrain and the eastern plains until the trough pulls far enough east and the surface pressure gradient relaxes over the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 The longwave pattern will be defined by a building ridge over the Rockies and a deeper trough over Ontario and Quebec Sunday through the middle of next week. This will steer the polar jet well north of NM, reducing winds aloft while a weak cut-off low slowly moves inland off of the Pacific. This will translate to a significantly warmer period Monday onward, along with a significant reduction in wind speeds due to an absence of strong lows crossing our state. Temperatures will have undergone a slight cooling in eastern areas on Sunday with just a few locations in northeastern zones dropping below climatological averages, but thereafter temperatures will climb 5 to 15 degrees above normal each day through Thursday. A weak cold front arriving from the northeast will occur Tuesday into Tuesday night, but will produce nearly negligible cooling and really just a shift in wind direction and a brief increase in gusts along and immediately behind the boundary. As for the approaching cut-off low, it will likely cross the Gulf of CA and Sonora Wednesday into Wednesday night, offering only some faint dynamics aloft and scant moisture. The low will, however, draw in some return flow from the southeast which would offer more impact and juice for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday as the low moves toward west TX. The extended model projections of the extent and depth of the boundary layer moisture advection can often be overly zealous in the spring, but ensembles and similar clusters of solutions do have a consensus for light precipitation over far southeastern NM with lighter and less organized signals over some remaining southern and eastern zones of the state. In addition to the track and timing dependencies with regard to the cut-off low, precipitation chances will also depend on the boundary layer moisture and how it is modified on its trek up the Rio Grande, TX hill country, and Big Bend area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 VFR will continue at all terminals the next 24 hrs with high turb and mt wave action confined mainly to far northern NM. West winds increase after sunrise Saturday across northern NM with gusts up to 40KT possible along ridges and east-facing slopes by noontime. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... An upper level shortwave trough will race eastward across northern NM Saturday. Confidence is high that strong west winds will spread into the northern high terrain late tonight then over a larger area of northeast and east-central NM Saturday afternoon. Confidence on subcritical humidity and receptive fuels is too low to support the Fire Weather Watch over north-central NM, especially in the higher terrain, so the watch has been cancelled. 2-day average ERC values are near or below the 50th percentile for these PSAs. A couple hours of critical conditions are possible in the Upper RGV near Taos where the strongest wind gusts of >40 mph are likely. A second area of marginal critical conditions is likely around the ABQ metro for a few hours Saturday afternoon with breezy northwest winds, minimum humidity near 15%, and more receptive fuels. Winds will taper off Saturday night followed by breezy northwest winds and slightly higher humidity areawide on Sunday. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build over the region Monday and Tuesday with well above normal temps, light winds, and low humidity. The next weather system is likely to traverse the southern half of NM Wednesday and Thursday with increasing moisture and slightly cooler temps. Enough moisture and instability may be in place for high-based showers to develop with erratic and gusty downburst winds south of the I-40 corridor. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 31 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 23 61 26 64 / 0 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 64 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 23 66 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 62 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 24 68 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 29 67 32 62 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 35 70 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 30 67 34 62 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 26 73 29 69 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 34 76 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 22 54 25 58 / 0 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 35 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 33 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 30 59 31 60 / 0 5 0 0 Red River....................... 27 52 25 52 / 0 5 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 24 55 26 55 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 25 63 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 30 62 32 60 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 29 71 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 68 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 40 72 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 74 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 35 77 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 75 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 31 77 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 34 75 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 32 76 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 35 76 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 33 76 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 37 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 36 75 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 37 81 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 35 70 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 30 70 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 70 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 65 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 33 69 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 38 72 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 64 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 27 68 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 68 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 31 67 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 75 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 32 70 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 34 77 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 36 74 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 34 78 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 37 79 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 34 81 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 34 79 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 85 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 40 78 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 39 77 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ104- 123>126. Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ215-223-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...42 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.