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048
FXUS62 KGSP 092343
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
743 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will cool closer to normal late this
week with numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunder-
storms expected each day. Temperatures increase again over the
weekend and early next week as an upper ridge amplifies. Mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Wednesday: As expected, numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the fcst area early this evening, so the
forecast was working out nicely. Precip probs were modified based
on radar trends. Some loose organization is still expected with
the activity getting an eastward push into the middle part of the
evening. The outflows should still be able to overcome the weak
developing inhibition for another few hours, given remnant CAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg. Not going to rule out another severe storm or
two, and some flooding also cannot be ruled out where slow moving
storms persist long enough. Temps will have to be nudged downward
in many places where rain has cooled the boundary layer.

Otherwise...a few storms may linger through the evening, but
activity should dissipate/push out of the area by late evening with
a rather quiet overnight period expected. Patchy fog cannot be ruled
out for any location that experiences heavy rain, especially the
mountain valleys. Another busy convective day is on tap for tomorrow
as broad troughing extends down the spine of the Appalachians as
the parent northern stream wave slowly shifts out of the Great
Lakes and into New England. A continued warm and humid environment
will once again support the development of numerous to widespread
diurnal thunderstorms. The environment will be similar to today
with loosely organized convective clusters along cold pools in a
marginal environment for wet microbursts. Isolated flash flooding
will be possible as well, especially if heavy rainfall occurs over
areas that see heavy rain today.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12:15 PM EDT Wednesday: Mid level ridging will build over the
area late in the week into Saturday. This will lead to a decrease in
pops from today and Thursday. However due to moisture caught under
the ridge there will continue to be higher than climo pops. The
highest pops will be over the mountains each afternoon and evening.

Highs on Friday will be near climo increasing to a few degrees above
climo on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12:25 PM EDT Wednesday: Mid level ridging will remain in place
for Sunday into early next week leading to typical mid July
conditions. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above
normal each day with heat indices around 100-103 in the Piedmont
region. An active mainly diurnally driven convective pattern will
continue with the highest pops each day in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: A busy TAF period will continue across
the area, with numerous thunderstorms moving slowly across the
region at issuance time. Most terminals will retain their TEMPO
for TSRA through the late evening...03Z or thereabouts...after
which we should have convective debris clouds and light/variable
wind in the aftermath. Low level moisture will be plentiful, and
most of the guidance indicates variable low stratus and/or fog
restrictions down to IFR or LIFR in the pre-dawn hours, which seems
reasonable given the storm coverage this afternoon/evening. Once
the restrictions mix out by mid-morning Thursday, wind should come
up light SW and we do it all over again. Thursday afternoon looks
very similar to today, so expect another round of numerous storms
and associated restrictions.

Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into the
weekend, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...PM