


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --950 FXUS62 KGSP 070030 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 830 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Chantal will continue to weaken as it moves across the mid Atlantic states away from our region tonight and Monday. Hot and more humid conditions will return on Monday and linger through midweek featuring daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances. The heat abates somewhat into the weekend but daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 540 PM: Sent a quick grid update last hour to reflect current conditions and trends across the area. At 5 PM, the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near Fayetteville, NC or about 75 miles east of Union County, NC. The back edge of the rain shield has already pulled away from the area although a few sprinkles may linger for the next few hours, particularly across Davie and Rowan Counties. Any threat for heavy rain and flash flooding has ended across the area. We will no longer be producing HTI graphics for this event. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have also developed in the Savannah River Valley. SPC surface analysis and CIRA Advected Layered Precipitable Water (ALPW) shows some moisture pooling in the boundary layer, resulting in a narrow corridor of enhanced MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg. ALPW also reveals a pocket of drier air in the 850-700 mb and 700-500 mb that is associated with subsidence on the western periphery of Chantal`s circulation. Despite convection having to overcome this subsidence as well as additional subsidence from downsloping flow south of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, vertical profiles have yielded a relatively favorable thermodynamic environment for shallow convection. The threat of isolated showers should continue in NE GA, far western areas of Upstate SC, and the western NC mountains until dark. Chantal will weaken as it drifts northward thru central NC tonight. Winds will back and gradually diminish, becoming light NW across the CWA by the wee hours Monday. The remaining high altitude cloud cover will also diminish. Despite these conditions fog is not expected due to large dewpoint depressions. During the day Monday, low to midlevel winds will be mainly west to northwest, setting us up for some degree of downslope flow; surface winds will return to the SW for the most part. Accordingly very warm temperatures are forecast with highs largely in the mid-90s in the Piedmont; some locations in the Savannah Valley reach the upper 90s, and the major mountain valleys will top out near 90. Deep mixing is expected, which coupled with downslope flow is expected to bring afternoon dewpoints low enough to keep heat index from rising much above 100. Dry profiles aloft and deep mixing suggest only widely scattered diurnal convection over the mountains and foothills. Where convection does fire, weak shear and the dry midlevels should support an isolated dry microburst and perhaps localized wind damage as a result.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 PM Sunday: Mid and upper level ridging will strengthen atop the SE CONUS to start off the period as llvl sw flow advects even hot air into the region. Solid middle 90s are progged for Tuesday`s maximums with apparent temperatures possibly reaching into the lower 100s. The axis of the warmest air will start to be displaced on Wednesday but essentially it close to a persistence fcst as far as max temperatures go, another afternoon of middle 90s. Despite pretty typical diurnal tstm cvrg, there is possibility for a few strong to severe storms on Tuesday, especially along and east of developing sfc trough. As Miss/Ohio Valley energy begins to ride eastward and upper heights nudge downward, there is the potential for diurnally enhanced showers and storms to become numerous regionwide. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Sunday: Temperatures will pull back to around climo as a wavy flow sets up atop the region during the latter half of the work week. Given the seasonably rich moisture in place, pretty much either day there is the possibility of locally excessive rain or isolated severe storms, even outside of peak heating due to the potential for subtle energy to ripple through the aforementioned wavy pattern. There is certainly no indication that the atmosphere will suppressed in any way next weekend with little overall change in the mean pattern expected. Daily temperatures still around climo with likely probabilities for showers and storms each day. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --At KCLT and elsewhere: An isolated shower may develop near GSP-GMU where convergence near a weak surface trough will provide lift for an isolated shower or two through just after sunset. Coverage/confidence too low to include in 00Z TAFs. Winds will be light and variable along the lee trough axis, westerly to the west (AND). Farther east at HKY and CLT, north-northeast flow on the backside of Tropical Depression Chantal, but the gusty winds will quickly subside this evening, becoming more west-northwest or even light and variable tonight as the system exits and the gradient relaxes. Since the rain and deeper moisture remained to our east, a relatively dry airmass will limit the fog potential tonight at TAF sites. West winds 3-6 kt will develop after sunrise, shifting more southwesterly and increasing to 5-8 kt as the day progresses. Expect a SCT CU field to develop by late morning with CIGs 4-5 kft, increasing to 5-7 kft in the afternoon. SCT showers and ISO storms are expected to develop mainly over the mountains in the afternoon. A PROB30 group was added to KAVL TAF between 18Z-22Z. Outlook: More typical summertime weather returns Monday night and Tuesday and continues into late week, with sct SHRA/TSRA mainly in the aftn/eve and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JRK/Wimberley SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...JRK