Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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048 FXUS62 KGSP 092343 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 743 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will cool closer to normal late this week with numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunder- storms expected each day. Temperatures increase again over the weekend and early next week as an upper ridge amplifies. Mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Wednesday: As expected, numerous showers and thunderstorms across the fcst area early this evening, so the forecast was working out nicely. Precip probs were modified based on radar trends. Some loose organization is still expected with the activity getting an eastward push into the middle part of the evening. The outflows should still be able to overcome the weak developing inhibition for another few hours, given remnant CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Not going to rule out another severe storm or two, and some flooding also cannot be ruled out where slow moving storms persist long enough. Temps will have to be nudged downward in many places where rain has cooled the boundary layer. Otherwise...a few storms may linger through the evening, but activity should dissipate/push out of the area by late evening with a rather quiet overnight period expected. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out for any location that experiences heavy rain, especially the mountain valleys. Another busy convective day is on tap for tomorrow as broad troughing extends down the spine of the Appalachians as the parent northern stream wave slowly shifts out of the Great Lakes and into New England. A continued warm and humid environment will once again support the development of numerous to widespread diurnal thunderstorms. The environment will be similar to today with loosely organized convective clusters along cold pools in a marginal environment for wet microbursts. Isolated flash flooding will be possible as well, especially if heavy rainfall occurs over areas that see heavy rain today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12:15 PM EDT Wednesday: Mid level ridging will build over the area late in the week into Saturday. This will lead to a decrease in pops from today and Thursday. However due to moisture caught under the ridge there will continue to be higher than climo pops. The highest pops will be over the mountains each afternoon and evening. Highs on Friday will be near climo increasing to a few degrees above climo on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12:25 PM EDT Wednesday: Mid level ridging will remain in place for Sunday into early next week leading to typical mid July conditions. High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above normal each day with heat indices around 100-103 in the Piedmont region. An active mainly diurnally driven convective pattern will continue with the highest pops each day in the mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: A busy TAF period will continue across the area, with numerous thunderstorms moving slowly across the region at issuance time. Most terminals will retain their TEMPO for TSRA through the late evening...03Z or thereabouts...after which we should have convective debris clouds and light/variable wind in the aftermath. Low level moisture will be plentiful, and most of the guidance indicates variable low stratus and/or fog restrictions down to IFR or LIFR in the pre-dawn hours, which seems reasonable given the storm coverage this afternoon/evening. Once the restrictions mix out by mid-morning Thursday, wind should come up light SW and we do it all over again. Thursday afternoon looks very similar to today, so expect another round of numerous storms and associated restrictions. Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into the weekend, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning.
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&& .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...PM/TW SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...PM