-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
982
FXUS61 KBTV 181955
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region tonight and continue
through early this upcoming week. Warmer and drier weather returns
to the North Country with temperatures well into the 70s on Sunday
and upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday. Some patchy fog is possible
tonight, especially areas that received rainfall today. Building
heat will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 332 PM EDT Saturday...Water vapor showing deeper moisture
associated with weak trof shifting east of cwa, while subsidence/dry
air aloft is building over northern NY into the CPV. This drying wl
help to produce clearing skies overnight with some areas of patchy
fog. Greatest probability of fog development with vis below 1sm wl
be NEK and parts of central/eastern VT, along with portions of the
northern Dacks. The highest potential wl be from 07z-11z tonight.
Temps wl cool back into the lower 40s SLK/NEK to l/m 50s CPV/SLV.
Have noted some higher sfc dwpts pooling in the SLV, which combined
with temps dropping below cross over values and light winds could
result in some fog SLV, but confidence is too low to place in fcst
attm.

Sunday/Sunday night is very quiet with building mid/upper lvl ridge,
resulting in a dry and warm fcst. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 15-
16C which is a few degrees warmer than today and should support
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds wl be south at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday night wl be warmer and less areal coverage of fog/br given a
day removed from precip and less potential for lows dropping below
cross over values. Lows generally in the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...Our warming trend continues on Monday.
Mostly likely high temperatures appear to range from 80 to 84 for
most locations with abundant dry air in the 700 millibar level and
above sliding through on westerly/northwesterly flow. There may be
scattered cumulus with moderately high 850 millibar moisture. As
surface based instability grows with daytime heating, sufficient
orographic lift should support spot showers and maybe a
thunderstorm, especially in the Adirondacks where a chance of
showers is indicated. Dry air entrainment and poor mid-level lapse
rates do limit the potential of thunderstorms. Very little spatial
coverage is expected if anything can fire due to lack of upper level
forcing or a surface boundary in the region. Monday night there will
be some increasing chances of showers towards daybreak associated
with a vigorous shortwave approaching from the central Great
Lakes. There are large timing differences with this system,
however, as it slides across the upper level ridge in our
region, so this part of the forecast is very uncertain at this
time. Modest southerly flow will keep temperature rather mild in
the upper 50s to low 60s in most locations.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...A pretty active weather pattern
looks to develop, especially midweek. A mix of both heat and
thunderstorm potential exists for multiple days, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday. While a heat advisory may not be issued,
both the WBGT and experimental HeatRisk have continued to trend
higher, well into the moderate range, such that I expect heat
impacts will occur in our region. Compared to the previous
forecast, Tuesday has trended slightly less hot due to the
potential for thunderstorms during the daytime, while Wednesday
is now looking like the warmest day of the week with highs in
the upper 80s in most valley locations.

Tuesday is a sneaky severe thunderstorm day as the
aforementioned shortwave Monday night could provide very good
support for widespread convection if we see heat build ahead of
the upper level forcing. Otherwise, the best largest scale
severe weather potential is still indicated for Thursday.
However, looking at cluster analysis for the overlap of shear
and CAPE, global models are split. Out of the four most likely
scenarios, two suggest the cold front moves through too early in
the day to support severe weather, one scenario shows best
ingredients to our south, and one does favor our forecast area.
Behind the expected cold frontal passage, temperatures look to
return to near normal for the later part of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Light rain showers will exit EFK and MPV
in the next 1 to 2 hours with VFR conditions prevailing into the
evening hours. Agree with previous forecaster patchy fog is
possible (40-50%) on Sunday morning, especially at locations
that received rainfall today, such as EFK. Also, have noted
slightly higher dwpts at SLK, supporting greater potential for
going below cross over temp tonight to support some localized
fog/br. Have continued with previous forecaster idea of 1SM in
BR for now at SLK/EFK and MPV, which is supporting by model
sounding data showing a shallow thermal inversion with saturated
sfc conditions. Highest confidence of fog/br potential will be
btwn 07-11z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions persist, except a small
chance <10% of some shallow fog at MSS, however confidence too
low to mention attm. Winds are generally light and variable thru
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber