Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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001 FXUS65 KBOU 160214 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 814 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening, ending from north to south. - Warmer and generally drier starting Thursday, with lesser but at least isolated daily afternoon showers/thunderstorm coverage, highest for the mountains. - A return to more active weather early next week with a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 808 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Linger showers and isolated tstms were focused mainly around the Denver area to the Palmer Divide. Expect this activity will gradually shift southward the next few hours, with some threat of lingering showers through midnight, over portions of South Park and the Palmer Divide. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Upper level trough axis has shifted south and east of the area. Water vapor satellite imagery shows some drying behind it over northeast Colorado. There`s still enough low level moisture and instability to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. As northeast winds increase this afternoon, expect this upslope flow to help trigger additional storms across the Front Range and Palmer Divide. The stronger storms are expected to be found over the southern foothills, Palmer Divide and south where ML CAPE reaches up to 600 J/kg. Farther north, ML CAPE is generally 200-500 J/kg. The showers and storms slowly come to an end this evening from north to south. There`s a slight chance showers linger past midnight south of I-70. For Thursday, weak subsident northwest flow aloft will prevail. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. There will be a chance for isolated afternoon showers/storms over the higher terrain. If any activity develops, it`s expected to be weak and short lived. Temperatures rebound Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s across northeast Colorado. && .LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Upper level high pressure building over Colorado will bring dry weather to North Central and Northeastern Colorado on Friday. This combined with some downsloping flow will produce very warm temperatures across the plains with max readings climbing into the lower to mid 80s. Friday night and Saturday, an upper level shortwave will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Great Plains States. The system will be to far north of Colorado to have any impact on our weather other than breezy conditions across the northern sections of the CWA along with cooler temperatures behind the passage of a cool front. In addition, there may be just enough mid level moisture combined with daytime heating to produce a few afternoon and evening showers and storms late Saturday afternoon and evening. On Sunday, Colorado will be influenced by a quasi-zonal flow with a return to very warm temperatures and mostly dry conditons. On Monday, the models are indicating some upper level troughiness across the Western U.S. with a moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado. This looks like it could be a good setup for severe weather across the far northeastern plains if we can advect enough surface moisture into the region. A similar upper level pattern remains into the middle of next week with the exception of lighter winds aloft. Models are also hinting at another cold front moving across the plains Monday evening which should result in cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. With this in mind, the NBM solution of slightly above normal temperatures along with a 15% to 40% chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms looks reasonable. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 512 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024 Winds will continue NE early this evening but some question as to which direction they will trend before going to drainage by 06z. If no showers move across they may go from NE to SE to SSW. On Thu, light and variable winds in the morning will become light NNE by 19z. Still can`t completely rule out a shower moving across this evening with ceilings down to 8000 ft for a few hours. Otherwise expect VFR thru the period. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...JK AVIATION...RPK