967
FXAK68 PAFC 120046
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through
Monday)...

A look at satellite imagery this afternoon shows a typical
summer-time phenomena at the high latitudes, with 4 distinct
upper level cut-off lows in the Alaska region. The main weather
maker for Southcentral is a large deep low headed for Yakutat and
SE Alaska. Short-waves rotating around the north side of this low
have been producing steady light rain across the southern and
eastern Copper River Basin today, with rainfall totals roughly
between 0.10 and 0.25". A weak thermal trough and axis of highest
instability is positioned north and west of here - from the
eastern Interior across the Alaska Range to the Denali Highway,
Talkeetna Mountains, and western Copper River Basin. Showers have
initiated along this boundary and are tracking from northeast to
southwest. Partly to mostly sunny skies are being observed from
the western kenai to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. , though isolated
showers are initiating along the higher terrain and some
clouds/showers are advecting off the mountains this afternoon.
After a big rainfall and high river levels/minor flooding on
Kodiak Island yesterday conditions are much drier today, with just
a few light showers. This is allowing river levels to come down
from their peak.

The forecast is on track for the weekend, with quiet weather
expected. The upper low in the NE Gulf will exit to Canada while
an Arctic ridge builds southward across the mainland to Southcentral.
The ridge will cut-off as it moves overhead of Southcentral
Saturday night, then connect up with a building ridge over the NE
Pacific and shift eastward Sunday through Monday. Model guidance
is struggling with a residual upper low/trough in the Gulf and
whether it gets caught between the two ridges or gets kicked
eastward toward SE Alaska and British Columbia. The 12Z NAM even
tried to bring the upper trough back toward Southcentral Monday
as the ridge progresses eastward. Despite these differences, the
forecast for the weekend looks the same, with mostly dry
conditions and partly to mostly sunny skies for most of
Southcentral. There will be enough instability for some
afternoon/evening convection, but with weak storm motion, these
will be confined primarily to higher terrain. There is also
potential for a push of low clouds up Cook Inlet as the ridge
shifts eastward Saturday night/Sunday, so that could lead to more
clouds and cooler temperatures for some communities on Sunday.

Forecast confidence drops significantly for Monday. There is
overall agreement with the large scale pattern and flow, with the
ridge exiting eastward and Kodiak/Gulf of AK/Southcentral all
coming under the influence of multiple upstream troughs and deep
southerly flow. Guidance varies on the track and strength of
individual short-waves and therefore on potential for rain. At a
minimum, expect a trend toward cooler and cloudier conditions.
None of the features look particularly strong, so also expect a
chance of rain - but likely light intensity and accumulation.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

Conditions across Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea are fairly
quiet owing to a collection of weak weather systems affecting the
area. Weak ridging over the Alaska mainland and light offshore
flow is leading to fairly warm temperatures, with high
temperatures in the upper 60s and into the 70s for Southwest
Alaska. Warm temperatures and weak shortwaves rotating around the
ridge are producing scattered to numerous showers for much of the
region. This will continue to be the story, with showers
developing each afternoon/evening through the weekend.
Temperatures reach their peak on Saturday with interior areas
seeing highs exceed 70 degrees as ridging builds in overhead. This
will also contribute to thunderstorm potential, with isolated
storms developing generally along an axis from the Western Alaska
Range over the Kilbuck and Ahklun Mountains, which through the
evening hours should migrate off the high terrain with potential
to move into Aniak, Bethel, and there is even a chance to reach
parts of the Kuskokwim Delta coast, particularly near and south of
the mouth of the river.

Out west, a weak surface low brings light rain and low stratus to
the western Bering Sea and Aleutians. The low dips south of the
Aleutian Chain for Saturday, spreading precipitation as far as the
eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. Otherwise, a col
over the eastern Bering Sea leads to stagnant conditions with
stratus and fog. The upper component of the low weakens and
elongates, pushing back north on Sunday. This combines with an
incoming front off a Kamchatka low that returns southerly winds to
the western Bering Sea. A subtle shift to onshore flow also beings
on Sunday for Southwest Alaska, heralding cooler and more stable
conditions. This will increase fog and stratus potential along the
coast, and thunderstorms retreat inland, being limited to the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range for Sunday
afternoon/evening. By Monday, the bulk of the front reaches the
central Bering Sea and the Pribilof Islands, though winds remain
below gale force. A broad shortwave trough lifts across Southwest
Alaska, promoting more widespread wetter conditions with numerous
rain showers.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Low pressure in the northern Gulf of Alaska remains fairly
stationary through the end of next week though its exact placement
remains uncertain. The GFS places it off the coast of the Kenai
Peninsula with the Canadian and ECMWF both place it just east of
the Barren Islands. Therefore, confidence on the duration and
frequency of the waves of moisture and cloudy conditions each
model suggests into Southcentral is low. However, partly cloudy
skies are most likely in Southcentral away from the coast. High
pressure builds for the Copper Basin in the long range resulting
in a better chance of partly cloudy skies and dry conditions.

In the Bering, low moves through the Northern Bering Sea during
most of the long range period. Additionally, high pressure
strengthens over the SW Mainland. Though timing and strength
differ with each model, consensus is that the front progresses
eastward toward the SW Mainland as the high builds over the
Mainland. Confidence remains low though in this solution because
of the non-model consensus. Widespread rain and coudy skies will
accompany the front though regardless of its exact track.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected to persist through the period.
Winds will generally be light northerly through early evening then
backing to more southerly tonight. There is potential for a period
of breezy Turnagain Arm winds to work into the terminal this
afternoon/evening. Showers look to develop this afternoon but
should remain mostly tied to the mountains.

&&


$$