Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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809
FGUS63 KKRF 261835
ESPYEL
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1038 PM CST MON NOV 25 2024
********************************************************
********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LK WY BLO
YLOW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LAMAR R AT TOWER FALLS WY 1NE
TFLW4 15.0 16.0 17.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGS MT
CORM8 11.0 12.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTON MT 5S
LIVM8 10.0 10.5 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:SHIELDS R AT LIVINGSTON MT 7NE
SLDM8 5.5 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBER MT 1E
BTMM8 8.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:STILLWATER R AT ABSAROKEE MT 1NE
SRAM8 7.5 8.0 9.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN AT BELFRY MT 10SW
BFYM8 9.0 10.0 11.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT EDGAR MT
EDGM8 9.0 10.0 11.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGS MT 1NE
BILM8 13.5 14.5 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:LTL BIGHORN R AT HARDIN MT 3E
HRDM8 8.0 10.0 11.8 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT FORSYTH MT
FRYM8 14.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:GOOSE CR AT SHERIDAN WY
SHBW4 7.5 8.5 9.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:TONGUE R AT BIRNEY MT
BNYM8 7.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:TONGUE R AT MILES CITY MT 2S
MICM8 10.0 13.0 15.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITY MT 1NW
MILM8 14.0 0.0 0.0 | <5 <5 <5 | NA NA NA | NA NA NA
:POWDER R AT SUSSEX WY
SXXW4 11.0 12.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT GLENDIVE MT 1E
GLNM8 53.5 60.0 65.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:YELLOWSTONE R AT SIDNEY MT 2S
SIDM8 19.0 20.0 21.7 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:YELLOWSTONE R
YLOW4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:LAMAR R
TFLW4 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 1.0/
:YELLOWSTONE R
CORM8 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/
LIVM8 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.6/
:SHIELDS R
SLDM8 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.1/ 1.3/
:BOULDER R
BTMM8 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/
:STILLWATER R
SRAM8 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN
BFYM8 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/
:YELLOWSTONE R
EDGM8 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/
BILM8 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/
:LTL BIGHORN R
HRDM8 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.2/
:YELLOWSTONE R
FRYM8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.6/
:GOOSE CR
SHBW4 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/
:TONGUE R
BNYM8 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.4/ 1.9/
MICM8 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 3.7/ 4.1/
:YELLOWSTONE R
MILM8 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.0/
:POWDER R
SXXW4 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.7/ 3.5/ 4.1/ 5.5/
:YELLOWSTONE R
GLNM8 43.1/ 43.1/ 43.2/ 43.7/ 43.5/ 43.8/ 44.1/
SIDM8 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.9/ 3.7/ 4.0/ 4.5/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 1130 Z DH12 /DC2411260438/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 11/30/2024 - 02/28/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:YELLOWSTONE R
YLOW4 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
:LAMAR R
TFLW4 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/
:YELLOWSTONE R
CORM8 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/
LIVM8 -0.2/ -0.2/ -0.2/ -0.2/ -0.2/ -0.2/ -0.2/
:SHIELDS R
SLDM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/
:BOULDER R
BTMM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/
:STILLWATER R
SRAM8 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/
:CLKS FK YLLWSTN
BFYM8 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/
:YELLOWSTONE R
EDGM8 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/
BILM8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/
:LTL BIGHORN R
HRDM8 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/
:YELLOWSTONE R
FRYM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.4/
:GOOSE CR
SHBW4 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/
:TONGUE R
BNYM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/
MICM8 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
:YELLOWSTONE R
MILM8 0.0/ 0.0/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.6/
:POWDER R
SXXW4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/
:YELLOWSTONE R
GLNM8 43.0/ 43.0/ 42.8/ 42.5/ 42.5/ 42.5/ 42.3/
SIDM8 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.0/
.END
$$