027
FXUS65 KVEF 171858
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1158 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Abundant moisture will remain over the Desert Southwest into
  next week, with daily rounds of monsoon thunderstorms.

* Seasonably hot temperatures will persist with unusually warm
  overnight lows due to moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An active stretch of monsoon days is expected as abundant
moisture resides over the Desert Southwest. This is apparent from
the most recent Upper Air soundings from Las Vegas, each showing
precipitable water values exceeding 1.6 inches. The most active
convective days currently appear to be today and Saturday. With
ensembles indicating some slight drying early next week, less
widespread activity can be expected, but the chance for storms
will persist through the end of next week. In fact, medium- range
ensembles indicate a weak inverted trough feature may result in a
period of greater shower and thunderstorm activity mid to late
next week, though confidence in the timing/placement of this
feature is very low. We will continue to monitor trends as the
time draws closer. Regardless, expect thunderstorms to largely be
terrain and outflow driven with little movement owing to very weak
mid-level steering flow. This will result in an increased risk
for localized flash flooding, especially given the high water
content in the atmosphere. Lightning and gusty winds will also
accompany any thunderstorm. Looking into the long range timeframe,
the pattern generally looks to continue favoring a monsoon
pattern with at least a chance for isolated thunderstorms into
next weekend. As it commonly the case, areas of Mohave and Lincoln
counties into southwestern Utah will generally be geographically
preferred for thunderstorms. Be especially mindful if you have any
outdoor activities planned over the next week or so as
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.

Afternoon high temperatures will generally remain right around
climatological normals. However, given the potential for
increased overnight cloud cover and abundant atmospheric moisture,
the air will struggle to cool down overnight. This will result in
some elevated heat risk potential, especially in the hotter
spots, including the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley.
Remain hydrated and avoid being outdoors during the hottest time
of the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
this afternoon should be similar to yesterday`s, with light east
winds turning southerly and increasing by late afternoon. Gusts over
20 knots can be expected at times. Chances for convection to impact
the terminal remain higher this afternoon and evening, with
scattered thunderstorms producing heavy rain, sudden outflow winds,
lightning and CIGs below 8000ft possible after 20Z. Convection
should wind down between 03Z and 06Z tonight. Confidence in the wind
forecast is low late this afternoon through early tonight due to
potential convective influences. Temperatures will exceed 100
degrees between 19Z and 04Z. Outside of convection, occasional CIGs
around 12kft AGL are expected through the TAF period. The chance of
convective activity on Saturday will be lower.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Away from afternoon
convection, expect light winds becoming south to southeast today.
Breezy southwest winds will develop at KBIH this afternoon, with
gusts over 30 knots persisting through sunset. KDAG will see gusty
west winds developing around 00Z after seeing light winds through
much of the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon through southern Nevada and into Arizona. Any
storms may produce lightning, sudden gusty outflow winds, brief
heavy rain, and CIGs below 8kft. Confidence in thunderstorm chances
remains low near the Colorado River Valley, including KEED and KIFP,
but isolated convection can not be ruled out after 21Z. Outside of
precipitation, CIGs should remain AOA 12kft AGL.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Planz

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