901
FXUS65 KVEF 132100
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect through
  this evening as hotter than normal temperatures persist.

* Isolated afternoon convection will be possible in the
  southwestern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona for the next
  few days. Chances for storms will spread into southeastern
  Nevada later this week.

* Isolated dry lightning will be possible with any convection that
  develops over the next few days, resulting in increased risk of
  fire starts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Wednesday.

Today will be the last day with temperatures around 4 to 8 degrees
above normal, yielding widespread Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4)
across southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast California.
Pockets of Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4) will persist for one more
day in lower elevations and valleys, including the Las Vegas Valley.
With temperatures expected to gradually cool during the second half
of the week, the Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories look good
to run through this evening before expiring.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern
Inyo County into Esmeralda County this afternoon, as well as the
Arizona Strip. Dry lightning will be a threat with any storms that
develop due to the dry low-levels of the atmosphere inhibiting
precipitation from reaching the ground. Another round of isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon.
Moisture will increase across northwest Arizona, up the Colorado
River Valley, and into southeastern Nevada as we head into the
weekend, which will allow for additional precipitation chances on
Friday and Saturday. Convection will be terrain driven and will
diminish with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. Variable
gusty outflow winds, lightning, and locally moderate-to-heavy rain
will be possible with any convection that develops.

Isolated dry thunderstorm activity will be possible across
northern Inyo County and Esmeralda County as well as the Arizona
Strip this afternoon. This threat will continue through Thursday
across the Arizona Strip as we continue to see dry-low levels.
Moisture will increase as we head into the weekend, resulting in a
east-west moisture gradient across our forecast area. This means
that storms that develop further west, where the low levels will
remain dry, will see the threat of dry lightning continue.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy
southerly winds will pick up this afternoon, continuing into the
early evening hours. These winds will initially be more
southeasterly before settling in from the southwest later this
afternoon. Wind gusts will drop off during the early evening hours
with winds continuing to maintain a southwesterly direction through
early Thursday morning when they will become light and variable.
Temperatures exceed 100 degrees between 18z and 05z, with a peak
around 110 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy southerly to
southwesterly winds pick up across much of the area this afternoon
and evening with gusts between 15 and 25 knots possible.
Thunderstorms develop over the southern Great Basin and high terrain
in Inyo County this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds from storms over
the White Mountains and Sierra may reach KBIH, causing temporary
changes in wind speed and direction. Precipitation chances wane
around sunset, with dry conditions prevailing overnight. The Western
Mojave Desert will see westerly winds prevail through the TAF
period, with gusts around 25 knots picking up later this afternoon
and continuing into the evening hours.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Stessman


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