204
FXUS65 KVEF 050953
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
253 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty southwest winds, cooler conditions, and light precipitation
  chances continue today.

* Temperatures climb 10 to 15 degrees above-normal late-week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.

A closed area of low pressure will push into the Desert Southwest
through the day today, ushering in 0.40 to 0.60 inches of PWAT along
with it. As the center of the low pushes into Arizona this
afternoon, the northerly flow on the back-end of the trough will
dictate storm motion across the forecast area today. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will form over the southern Great
Basin as well as across northern Mohave County through the morning
and will gradually push southward through the day. With 500 to 800
J/kg of DCAPE, expect wind gusts in excess of 40 mph with stronger
storms that form. Finally, thunderstorm outflows have the potential
to push moisture further south into the Mojave Desert, resulting in
a 10 percent chance of shower and thunderstorm activity in the
higher terrain of central Inyo, Clark, and southern Mohave counties
as well.

Behind this weather system, ridging returns over the region mid-to-
late week, resulting in temperatures climbing to 10 to 15 degrees
above-normal. Heat Risk increases to Moderate (Level 2 on a scale 0
to 4) for desert valleys Friday through Monday, as it gradually
spreads across the Mojave Desert heading into the next work week.
Meanwhile, Heat Risk in the higher terrain of the southern Great
Basin and Mojave Desert including the Spring Mountains and Sheep
Range will increase to a Minor (Level 1 on a scale of 0 to 4). This
level of heat affects those extremely sensitive to heat, which
includes populations consuming alcohol, caffeine, or other drugs.
Las Vegas has a 30 percent chance of observing the first 100 of the
year on Sunday and a 75 percent chance on Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...South to southwest winds are expected through much of the
TAF period. Winds through the morning will remain at 8-10KT, may
even briefly drop under 8KT at times, then breezy winds return this
afternoon. Gusts today will be lighter than yesterday with only a
10% chance for gusts over 20KT. Southwest winds will stop gusting
around sunset but will remain around 10KT for the first part of the
night before diminishing after 09Z. VFR conditions will persist
through the period with FEW-SCT clouds between 10kft-15kft at times.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop north of the
terminal today but will remain far enough away that direct impacts
are not expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty west winds are
expected around KDAG today through early tonight. Gusts to 25-30KT
are expected through about 00Z, then gusts will increase to over
30KT for the evening. Winds will eventually stop gusting around 09Z
at KDAG but remain at 10-15KT through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere,
south to southwest winds around 10KT will continue through the
morning. Gusts will develop this afternoon to around 20KT at times.
Winds will diminish this evening with light winds following typical
directional patterns tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop late morning and afternoon across the Sierra into the
Southern Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may
contain lightning, sudden gusty winds, and CIGs to 5000ft, including
at KBIH. Precipitation will wane after sunset. VFR conditions will
persist through the period with FEW-SCT clouds between 10kft-15kft
at times. &&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson

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