737
FXUS65 KVEF 300547
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1047 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for isolated to scattered storms linger, primarily in
  northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin.

* Elsewhere, cooling temperatures and gusty southwest winds will be
  the main story.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Saturday.

High pressure remains centered over New Mexico while a positively
tilted trough sits over the Pacific coast. This pattern will
maintain dry conditions for most of the forecast area. Enough
moisture remains over some of the far eastern sections of the area
to keep 15 to 30 percent POPs in the forecast over high terrain in
northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. Thunderstorm
activity picks up on Monday as a shortwave tracks east through
California and Nevada with decent moisture ahead of it. The current
timing of this feature should limit precipitation to northwestern
Arizona and Lincoln County, but if the feature slows down, chances
may spread further west. Forecast confidence decreases towards the
middle of the week. The GEFS solution still has the Pacific trough
tapping into moisture from tropical storm Karina, then drawing the
moisture towards the southwestern United States. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF still shows a drier solution. Even if the atmospheric moisture
makes it to the forecast area, much of it may stay elevated,
favoring high clouds rather than widespread precipitation. Will
continue to watch over the next few days.

The cooling trend continues as heights aloft lower with the incoming
trough. Today`s highs will be near normal for this time of year,
with highs in the low to mid 100s across the Mojave Desert valleys.
Temperatures bottom out midweek around 5 degrees below normal, which
means highs in the mid 90s to low 100s and lows in the 70s for many
locations. Breezy southwesterly winds will continue with support
from enhanced 850 winds between 30 and 40 knots. Surface wind gusts
reach 35 to 40 mph across much of the Mojave Desert, especially high
terrain in San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave counties.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Expect southwesterly winds through the night and the morning with
gusts around 17kts possible. before weakening and becoming light and
variable by the early morning. Winds turn slightly more southerly in
the mid to late morning with gusts over 20kts expected along with
building high clouds. Gusts cut off after sunset while prevailing
winds become more moderate. By early Monday, winds become light.
Temperatures look to break 100 degrees shortly after 20z and cool
below 100 shortly before 00z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Gusts have eased for
all but KDAG, which remains gusty through the late night before
gusts cut off. Winds will stay moderate through the early morning,
but gusts and breezes begin to build in the mid to late morning with
stronger gusts arriving into the afternoon. Winds look to ease for
some of the TAF sites into Sunday night, but KIFP, KEED, KDAG will
keep gusts into the late night..

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Murdock

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