221
FXUS65 KVEF 160001
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
501 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Terrain-based, afternoon and evening convection will continue
  through the end of the week with greater coverage east of Las
  Vegas.

* Near-to-slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
  Thursday, with temperatures decreasing slightly heading into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.

The next couple of afternoons and evenings will see primarily
terrain driven convection. Instability will favor Mohave, Lincoln
and Clark counties. DCAPE values are sufficient for storms to
produce gusty outflows. The latest HREF shows high probabilities (>
70%) for gusts > 30 mph in eastern Mohave County today and Thursday
afternoon. The outflows will generally be moving from east to west
and may reach the Colorado River Valley during the evening hours.
More uncertainty as to whether they will make their way as far west
as the Las Vegas Valley. An easterly wave will slowly work its way
across eastern and central Arizona on Friday and Saturday and should
act to enhance convection in Mohave County. The more widespread
flash flood concerns should be further to our east but storms will
produce localized heavy downpours. The monsoonal moisture will
remain in place through the period with continued afternoon and
evening convection into next week.

This afternoon and tomorrow will be the hottest days of the week.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 100s to low 110s in most
valleys around the Mojave Desert with overnight lows in the 80s to
low 90s. Hot daytime temperatures and warm nights offering little
relief combined with monsoonal humidity result in Moderate (Level 2
of 4) Heat Risk for most areas, with pockets of High (Level 3 of 4)
Heat Risk including the Las Vegas Valley both days. There should be
some improvement by Friday as moisture and precipitation potential
increase and temperatures fall several degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Barring
any convective influences, expecting winds to largely remain
light and follow typical, daily patterns. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected in the higher terrain surrounding the
valley through late this afternoon, when outflow from
thunderstorms in northern Arizona will cause winds to swing around
to the southeast. Blowing dust will be possible with this outflow
boundary, and may result in slantwise visibility reductions.
Southeasterly winds will persist through sunset, with winds
becoming light and variable through the overnight hours. FEW-SCT
mid-level and high clouds with temps to exceed 100F until 06z
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the higher
terrain surrounding the valley tomorrow afternoon, with convection
diminishing after sunset.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package... Isolated to
scattered convection will continue through sunset across
northwestern Arizona and the higher terrain of southern Nevada.
Gusty outflow winds and brief downpours will be the main concern
with any convection. Southeasterly outflow winds will continue to
work their way through southern Nevada and the Colorado River
Valley through late afternoon, with winds becoming light and
following typical diurnal directional trends returning early this
evening. Westerly winds will pick back up this evening across the
western Mojave Desert, decreasing early Thursday morning. FEW-SCT
mid- level and high clouds where convection is more sparse, and
SCT-BKN conditions where it is more widespread. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to southern Nevada
and northwestern Arizona again Thursday afternoon. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Stessman

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter