033
FXUS65 KVEF 050910
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
110 AM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Sierra snow and Owens Valley rain will taper off early
this morning with lingering showers progressing through the
southern Great Basin this afternoon. Otherwise, dry and breezy
conditions are expected elsewhere with temperatures remaining
above normal. Snow will return to the Sierra Thursday into Friday
with light precipitation spilling into the Owens Valley as well.
Temperatures will drop closer to normal over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tonight.

Weakening atmospheric river continues to sag south early this
morning across the southern Sierra, with light spillover
precipitation extending into the Owens Valley with periods of
light rain reported at Bishop and Lone Pine. This precipitation
will gradually taper off in the coming hours as the primary
shortwave associated with it lifts east. A few light showers will
spread into the southern Great Basin through the early afternoon
hours but any precipitation accumulations will be quite light.

Outside of the precipitation chances, gusty winds continue early
this morning downwind of the Spring Mountains with Desert Rock
gusting over 50 mph at times and Angel Peak recently reaching 68
mph. These gusty downslope winds will continue through this
afternoon before gradually easing this evening. Elsewhere, breezy
conditions will encourage another day of mild afternoon
temperatures thanks to fairly deep surface mixing, though overall
temperatures should top out slightly cooler than yesterday.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.

After the lull on Wednesday, the aforementioned low off of the
Pacific Northwest Coast will move inland Thursday, accompanied by
another moisture plume progged to bring round two of heavy snow to
the Eastern Sierra. While the overall evolution of the pattern
remains consistent, it has slowed down somewhat, with the bulk of
precipitation now expected Thursday late afternoon/evening through
Friday. An additional 1 to 2 feet of snow can be expected in the
Eastern Sierra, with the greatest amounts across the highest
elevations, with a better chance of precipitation east of the
mountains associated with not only the increased moisture but the
enhanced ascent ahead of the approaching trough axis as it
translates eastward into the Great Basin through Friday afternoon.
While precipitation chances on the order of 30-60% are fairly
widespread across northern and western portions of the forecast
area, it`s important to note that QPF remains paltry, generally
under 0.05" for locations east of the Owens Valley. Thus, only
spotty rain/snow showers with little to no tangible impacts are
anticipated.

Aside from precipitation chances, the cooling trend continues
through the end of the week, though temperatures will still remain
above normal through Friday. A return of gusty winds can be
expected as well especially on Friday as the trough axis moves
through the Great Basin. In the wake of the trough, Saturday will
see sharply cooler temperatures closer to seasonal norms in the
50s and 60s for most and 40s in the mountains, which will carry
through the weekend. Ensemble guidance remains in fairly good
agreement regarding the evolution of the upper pattern into early
next week, with quasi- zonal to northwesterly flow setting up over
the western CONUS. However, disturbances/shortwaves within this
flow will largely dictate sensible weather patterns, and remain
uncertain. Thus, have currently maintained the cooling trend with
temperatures near or even slightly below normal into early next
week and dry conditions for most.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will continue to maintain a
southwesterly direction through the evening hours. There will be a
brief lull in wind gusts during the early morning hours before gusts
return around mid-morning. These 20 to 30 knot southwesterly wind
gusts will continue into the evening hours before eventually
dropping off.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds at VGT will remain squirrely through mid-morning
as they find themselves caught under a rotor. Once the downslope
winds causing this rotor cease, winds at VGT will settle in from the
southwest with 20 to 25 knot wind gusts continuing  through the
afternoon hours. HND will see 20 to 30 knot southwesterly wind gusts
continue into the early evening hours. Light rain showers will
continue to impact BIH through the early morning hours along with
CIGS as low as 5 kft. Southeasterly winds with occasional gusts to
around 25 knots will continue at BIH through later this morning when
winds will swing around to the southwest before transitioning to the
northwest later this evening. 20 to 30 knot westerly wind gusts will
continue at DAG through the early evening hours. Once these gusts
drop off winds will continue to maintain a westerly direction
through the overnight hours. Winds at the Colorado River Valley TAF
sites will remain light, under 10 knots, and will favor a southerly
direction through mid-to-late morning. 15 to 25 knot wind gusts will
pick up at IFP and EED with IFP favoring a more southerly to
southeasterly direction while EED favors a more southwesterly
direction. These gustier winds will continue through the early
evening hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Stessman

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